Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 April–11 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 16.5% | 21.2% | 20.1–22.3% | 19.8–22.6% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.1–23.4% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 18.2% | 20.5% | 19.5–21.6% | 19.2–21.9% | 18.9–22.1% | 18.4–22.7% |
| Suomen Keskusta | 21.1% | 15.7% | 14.8–16.7% | 14.5–17.0% | 14.3–17.2% | 13.9–17.7% |
| Vihreä liitto | 8.5% | 14.2% | 13.3–15.1% | 13.1–15.4% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.5–16.1% |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.0–9.5% | 7.8–9.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% |
| Perussuomalaiset | 17.6% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.4% | 6.8–8.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.2% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3–4.3% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 34 | 47 | 45–49 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 37 | 45 | 41–48 | 40–49 | 39–49 | 38–49 |
| Suomen Keskusta | 49 | 35 | 34–39 | 34–41 | 34–41 | 33–42 |
| Vihreä liitto | 15 | 28 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 12 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Perussuomalaiset | 38 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 10–19 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 9 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 5 | 6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 4% | 94% | |
| 45 | 6% | 90% | |
| 46 | 12% | 85% | |
| 47 | 54% | 73% | Median |
| 48 | 7% | 19% | |
| 49 | 3% | 11% | |
| 50 | 4% | 8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 38 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 6% | 97% | |
| 41 | 6% | 91% | |
| 42 | 8% | 84% | |
| 43 | 10% | 76% | |
| 44 | 9% | 66% | |
| 45 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 46 | 10% | 39% | |
| 47 | 8% | 30% | |
| 48 | 16% | 22% | |
| 49 | 5% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 28% | 98% | |
| 35 | 29% | 70% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 41% | |
| 37 | 9% | 29% | |
| 38 | 10% | 20% | |
| 39 | 4% | 10% | |
| 40 | 1.5% | 7% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 10% | 97% | |
| 26 | 12% | 87% | |
| 27 | 11% | 75% | |
| 28 | 33% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 31% | |
| 30 | 12% | 21% | |
| 31 | 9% | 9% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 13 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 4% | 95% | |
| 15 | 7% | 91% | |
| 16 | 18% | 84% | |
| 17 | 55% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 6% | 10% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 98% | |
| 12 | 22% | 96% | |
| 13 | 27% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 37% | 47% | |
| 15 | 5% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 5% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 17% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 46% | 82% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 36% | Last Result |
| 10 | 20% | 23% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 5% | 97% | |
| 4 | 4% | 92% | |
| 5 | 17% | 88% | Last Result |
| 6 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 112 | 151 | 100% | 147–152 | 145–153 | 144–153 | 143–154 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 134 | 100% | 130–136 | 129–137 | 128–137 | 127–138 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 85 | 106 | 96% | 102–109 | 101–110 | 100–111 | 99–111 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 70 | 100 | 29% | 96–103 | 95–104 | 94–105 | 93–107 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 94 | 0.6% | 91–98 | 90–99 | 89–100 | 88–101 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset | 124 | 94 | 0.4% | 90–97 | 89–99 | 88–100 | 87–100 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto | 61 | 91 | 0% | 88–95 | 87–96 | 86–97 | 85–98 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus | 86 | 81 | 0% | 77–84 | 76–85 | 75–86 | 73–87 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 145 | 2% | 97% | |
| 146 | 5% | 95% | |
| 147 | 8% | 90% | |
| 148 | 10% | 82% | |
| 149 | 8% | 72% | |
| 150 | 12% | 64% | |
| 151 | 33% | 52% | Median |
| 152 | 9% | 18% | |
| 153 | 8% | 10% | |
| 154 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 129 | 3% | 97% | |
| 130 | 6% | 93% | |
| 131 | 8% | 87% | |
| 132 | 10% | 79% | |
| 133 | 12% | 69% | |
| 134 | 29% | 58% | Median |
| 135 | 15% | 29% | |
| 136 | 9% | 14% | |
| 137 | 4% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 5% | 96% | Majority |
| 102 | 9% | 91% | |
| 103 | 7% | 82% | |
| 104 | 9% | 75% | |
| 105 | 12% | 66% | |
| 106 | 19% | 54% | Median |
| 107 | 12% | 35% | |
| 108 | 9% | 23% | |
| 109 | 6% | 14% | |
| 110 | 4% | 8% | |
| 111 | 4% | 5% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 2% | 96% | |
| 96 | 5% | 94% | |
| 97 | 10% | 90% | |
| 98 | 12% | 80% | |
| 99 | 15% | 68% | |
| 100 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 101 | 5% | 29% | Majority |
| 102 | 8% | 23% | |
| 103 | 6% | 15% | |
| 104 | 4% | 9% | |
| 105 | 3% | 5% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 3% | 98% | |
| 90 | 5% | 96% | |
| 91 | 6% | 91% | |
| 92 | 10% | 85% | |
| 93 | 10% | 76% | |
| 94 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 95 | 13% | 48% | |
| 96 | 9% | 35% | |
| 97 | 11% | 26% | |
| 98 | 9% | 15% | |
| 99 | 2% | 6% | |
| 100 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 88 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 3% | 92% | |
| 91 | 8% | 89% | |
| 92 | 6% | 81% | |
| 93 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 94 | 12% | 51% | |
| 95 | 13% | 40% | |
| 96 | 9% | 26% | |
| 97 | 8% | 18% | |
| 98 | 4% | 9% | |
| 99 | 3% | 5% | |
| 100 | 2% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 102 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 98% | |
| 87 | 3% | 96% | |
| 88 | 6% | 92% | |
| 89 | 14% | 86% | |
| 90 | 15% | 72% | |
| 91 | 9% | 58% | |
| 92 | 23% | 49% | Median |
| 93 | 7% | 26% | |
| 94 | 9% | 20% | |
| 95 | 5% | 11% | |
| 96 | 3% | 6% | |
| 97 | 2% | 3% | |
| 98 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 5% | 96% | |
| 77 | 6% | 91% | |
| 78 | 6% | 85% | |
| 79 | 12% | 79% | |
| 80 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 81 | 16% | 51% | |
| 82 | 12% | 35% | |
| 83 | 6% | 23% | |
| 84 | 10% | 16% | |
| 85 | 3% | 6% | |
| 86 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 16 April–11 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2431
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%