Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 18–31 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.2% 19.7–22.8% 19.3–23.2% 18.9–23.6% 18.2–24.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.5% 18.1–21.1% 17.7–21.5% 17.3–21.9% 16.7–22.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.1% 13.8–16.5% 13.5–16.9% 13.2–17.3% 12.6–18.0%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.1% 11.9–14.5% 11.6–14.8% 11.3–15.2% 10.7–15.9%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.5–10.8% 7.0–11.4%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 7.9% 7.0–9.0% 6.7–9.3% 6.5–9.6% 6.1–10.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.8% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.2% 3.4–6.6%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.3% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.7% 3.0–6.1%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.5–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 44–51 43–53 42–54 40–57
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 41 38–47 37–49 37–49 36–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 32–39 31–41 30–42 29–43
Vihreä liitto 15 26 23–30 22–30 21–31 19–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–20 14–21 13–21 12–23
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–18 12–19 11–20 10–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 10 8–11 7–12 7–13 6–14
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 6 5–7 4–8 2–9
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 98.9%  
42 1.1% 98%  
43 4% 97%  
44 7% 93%  
45 12% 86%  
46 14% 74%  
47 19% 60% Median
48 11% 41%  
49 9% 30%  
50 6% 21%  
51 6% 15%  
52 2% 9%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 8% 98.8% Last Result
38 11% 91%  
39 18% 80%  
40 12% 62%  
41 10% 50% Median
42 9% 40%  
43 9% 31%  
44 4% 22%  
45 2% 18%  
46 4% 16%  
47 3% 12%  
48 4% 9%  
49 4% 6%  
50 0.8% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.3%  
52 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.7%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 3% 96%  
32 3% 93%  
33 9% 90%  
34 20% 81%  
35 16% 61% Median
36 11% 45%  
37 10% 33%  
38 10% 23%  
39 5% 14%  
40 3% 9%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.6%  
20 0.6% 99.1%  
21 1.2% 98%  
22 7% 97%  
23 8% 90%  
24 12% 82%  
25 11% 71%  
26 12% 60% Median
27 11% 49%  
28 17% 37%  
29 8% 20%  
30 8% 12%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.3% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
13 2% 99.0%  
14 3% 97%  
15 6% 94%  
16 11% 88%  
17 33% 77% Median
18 12% 44%  
19 13% 33%  
20 11% 19%  
21 6% 8%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.4% 100%  
11 2% 98.6%  
12 17% 96%  
13 9% 79%  
14 35% 70% Median
15 9% 35%  
16 7% 26%  
17 6% 19%  
18 5% 13%  
19 5% 8%  
20 0.8% 3%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.2% 99.9%  
7 5% 98.7%  
8 18% 94%  
9 18% 76% Last Result
10 18% 59% Median
11 35% 41%  
12 1.2% 6%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.9% 99.9%  
3 0.6% 98.9%  
4 2% 98%  
5 4% 96% Last Result
6 85% 92% Median
7 4% 8%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.1% 1.5%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 61% 61% Median
2 0.7% 0.9%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 148 100% 144–152 143–154 142–155 141–156
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 130 100% 126–135 125–136 124–137 122–140
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 104 87% 100–110 99–112 98–113 97–115
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 91 1.4% 86–96 86–98 85–100 83–101
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 77 0% 73–84 72–85 71–86 70–88

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 1.1% 99.6%  
142 2% 98%  
143 4% 97%  
144 5% 93%  
145 4% 88%  
146 16% 84%  
147 8% 68% Median
148 10% 60%  
149 12% 49%  
150 11% 37%  
151 12% 27%  
152 4% 14%  
153 4% 10%  
154 3% 6%  
155 2% 3%  
156 0.5% 0.8%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.3% 100%  
122 0.3% 99.7%  
123 0.3% 99.4%  
124 2% 99.1%  
125 4% 97%  
126 4% 93%  
127 4% 89%  
128 4% 85%  
129 18% 81%  
130 14% 64% Median
131 12% 49%  
132 8% 38%  
133 10% 30%  
134 8% 20%  
135 5% 12%  
136 4% 8%  
137 2% 4%  
138 1.2% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.0%  
140 0.3% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.7% 99.7%  
98 3% 99.0%  
99 3% 96%  
100 6% 93%  
101 13% 87% Majority
102 9% 74%  
103 7% 65%  
104 11% 58% Median
105 11% 47%  
106 6% 36%  
107 8% 30%  
108 6% 22%  
109 3% 15%  
110 4% 12%  
111 3% 8%  
112 3% 5%  
113 1.1% 3%  
114 1.0% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.2% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 1.1% 99.3%  
85 3% 98%  
86 9% 95%  
87 9% 86%  
88 4% 78%  
89 5% 73%  
90 4% 68% Median
91 15% 64%  
92 10% 49%  
93 8% 39%  
94 10% 30%  
95 7% 21%  
96 5% 14%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.1% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.4% Majority
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 3% 99.0%  
72 2% 96%  
73 6% 94%  
74 12% 88%  
75 9% 77%  
76 11% 68%  
77 7% 56% Median
78 17% 50%  
79 9% 32%  
80 5% 24%  
81 3% 18%  
82 2% 15%  
83 3% 13%  
84 5% 10%  
85 3% 5%  
86 0.9% 3% Last Result
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations