Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 2 May–5 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.0% 19.1–20.9% 18.9–21.2% 18.7–21.4% 18.3–21.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.3% 18.4–20.2% 18.2–20.5% 18.0–20.7% 17.6–21.1%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.6% 16.8–18.5% 16.5–18.7% 16.3–18.9% 16.0–19.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.4% 13.7–15.2% 13.4–15.4% 13.3–15.6% 12.9–16.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 8.3–9.6% 8.1–9.8% 8.0–9.9% 7.7–10.2%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.3% 7.7–8.9% 7.6–9.1% 7.4–9.3% 7.1–9.6%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.9% 3.5–4.4% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.4% 3.0–3.8% 2.9–3.9% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.3%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.0% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 44–47 42–47 41–48 40–49
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 40 39–43 38–44 38–45 37–47
Suomen Keskusta 49 41 39–44 38–45 37–45 35–46
Vihreä liitto 15 29 27–31 26–31 26–31 25–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 16–18 16–18 15–19 13–20
Perussuomalaiset 38 15 14–16 14–16 13–17 12–20
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–10
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 2–6 2–6 1–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 2% 95%  
43 2% 93%  
44 18% 91%  
45 30% 72% Median
46 21% 43%  
47 18% 21%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.3% 99.9% Last Result
38 8% 98.6%  
39 7% 91%  
40 45% 84% Median
41 16% 39%  
42 10% 24%  
43 7% 14%  
44 2% 7%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.5% 2%  
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.9% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.1%  
37 3% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 4% 92%  
40 11% 88%  
41 32% 77% Median
42 11% 45%  
43 13% 34%  
44 15% 20%  
45 4% 5%  
46 1.0% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 6% 98%  
27 17% 92%  
28 23% 75%  
29 15% 52% Median
30 22% 37%  
31 13% 15%  
32 1.0% 1.0%  
33 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100% Last Result
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 1.2% 99.3%  
15 2% 98%  
16 69% 96% Median
17 16% 28%  
18 8% 11%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.0%  
14 44% 97%  
15 36% 52% Median
16 13% 17%  
17 1.4% 4%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.4% 1.1%  
20 0.3% 0.7%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.9%  
6 11% 99.5%  
7 55% 89% Median
8 29% 34%  
9 4% 5% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 2% 99.6%  
2 16% 98%  
3 10% 81%  
4 6% 71%  
5 26% 65% Last Result, Median
6 39% 39%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 143 100% 140–145 140–146 139–147 137–148
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 124–129 123–130 122–130 121–132
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 97 12% 95–101 94–102 93–103 91–103
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 98 6% 95–100 94–101 94–102 91–104
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 5% 94–100 94–100 92–102 91–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 94 0.9% 91–97 89–98 89–98 88–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 90 0% 88–93 86–94 86–96 84–96
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 82 0% 80–85 79–86 77–86 76–89

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0.2% 100%  
137 1.0% 99.8%  
138 1.0% 98.8%  
139 3% 98%  
140 6% 95%  
141 19% 90%  
142 16% 71% Median
143 21% 55%  
144 18% 33%  
145 8% 16%  
146 4% 8%  
147 3% 4%  
148 1.1% 2%  
149 0.2% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0.4% 99.9%  
121 0.9% 99.6%  
122 2% 98.6%  
123 3% 97%  
124 7% 94%  
125 18% 86%  
126 19% 68% Median
127 28% 49%  
128 11% 21%  
129 5% 11%  
130 3% 5%  
131 2% 2%  
132 0.3% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 0.6% 99.1%  
93 3% 98%  
94 3% 95%  
95 5% 92%  
96 18% 86%  
97 23% 69% Median
98 17% 45%  
99 12% 28%  
100 4% 16%  
101 6% 12% Majority
102 2% 6%  
103 4% 4%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.5% 99.9%  
92 0.7% 99.5%  
93 1.2% 98.7%  
94 4% 98%  
95 6% 93%  
96 13% 87%  
97 22% 75% Median
98 20% 52%  
99 15% 33%  
100 12% 18%  
101 3% 6% Majority
102 0.7% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.8% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 1.2% 99.8%  
92 1.1% 98.6%  
93 2% 97%  
94 7% 95%  
95 7% 88%  
96 27% 81% Median
97 19% 54%  
98 12% 35%  
99 9% 23%  
100 10% 14%  
101 2% 5% Majority
102 1.1% 3%  
103 1.0% 1.5%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 1.2% 99.6%  
89 4% 98%  
90 2% 94%  
91 6% 92%  
92 10% 86%  
93 17% 76% Median
94 12% 59%  
95 16% 47%  
96 19% 31%  
97 7% 12%  
98 3% 5%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.2% 1.1% Last Result
101 0.8% 0.9% Majority
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.4% 99.9%  
84 0.6% 99.6%  
85 1.0% 99.0%  
86 3% 98%  
87 4% 95%  
88 7% 91%  
89 29% 84%  
90 13% 55% Median
91 14% 42%  
92 13% 28%  
93 6% 14%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 3% 3%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 6% 91%  
81 27% 85% Median
82 13% 58%  
83 15% 45%  
84 16% 30%  
85 9% 14%  
86 3% 5% Last Result
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.4%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations