Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 14 May–10 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 16.5% | 21.6% | 20.5–22.7% | 20.3–23.0% | 20.0–23.3% | 19.5–23.8% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 18.2% | 19.7% | 18.7–20.8% | 18.4–21.1% | 18.2–21.3% | 17.7–21.9% |
| Suomen Keskusta | 21.1% | 15.8% | 14.9–16.8% | 14.6–17.1% | 14.4–17.3% | 14.0–17.8% |
| Vihreä liitto | 8.5% | 13.5% | 12.7–14.4% | 12.4–14.7% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.5–10.0% | 8.3–10.2% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.8% |
| Perussuomalaiset | 17.6% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.5% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 34 | 48 | 46–51 | 45–52 | 44–52 | 43–54 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 37 | 41 | 38–46 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 37–49 |
| Suomen Keskusta | 49 | 36 | 34–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Vihreä liitto | 15 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–30 | 22–30 | 22–31 |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 12 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| Perussuomalaiset | 38 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 9 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 9% | 93% | |
| 47 | 32% | 85% | |
| 48 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 30% | |
| 50 | 5% | 21% | |
| 51 | 11% | 16% | |
| 52 | 4% | 5% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 38 | 14% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 11% | 85% | |
| 40 | 10% | 73% | |
| 41 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 42 | 6% | 50% | |
| 43 | 15% | 44% | |
| 44 | 5% | 29% | |
| 45 | 12% | 24% | |
| 46 | 5% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 28% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 21% | 71% | |
| 36 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 33% | |
| 38 | 3% | 24% | |
| 39 | 8% | 21% | |
| 40 | 7% | 13% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 42 | 4% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 5% | 97% | |
| 24 | 7% | 93% | |
| 25 | 20% | 85% | |
| 26 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 27 | 15% | 48% | |
| 28 | 23% | 33% | |
| 29 | 4% | 9% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 13% | 97% | |
| 17 | 34% | 85% | |
| 18 | 24% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 27% | |
| 20 | 6% | 10% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 13% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 18% | 86% | |
| 14 | 37% | 69% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 31% | |
| 16 | 7% | 18% | |
| 17 | 4% | 11% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 41% | 92% | |
| 9 | 21% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 17% | 30% | |
| 11 | 13% | 13% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 4 | 4% | 97% | |
| 5 | 17% | 93% | Last Result |
| 6 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 112 | 149 | 100% | 146–151 | 143–152 | 142–152 | 142–153 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 131 | 100% | 127–134 | 126–135 | 126–135 | 125–136 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 85 | 104 | 90% | 101–109 | 100–109 | 100–110 | 98–111 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 70 | 101 | 56% | 97–104 | 96–106 | 96–107 | 94–108 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 93 | 0.1% | 89–97 | 88–98 | 87–98 | 86–99 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto | 61 | 92 | 0.1% | 88–96 | 88–97 | 87–98 | 86–99 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset | 124 | 92 | 0.1% | 89–96 | 88–97 | 86–98 | 85–99 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus | 86 | 78 | 0% | 74–82 | 74–83 | 73–84 | 72–85 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 143 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 145 | 2% | 94% | |
| 146 | 13% | 91% | |
| 147 | 15% | 78% | |
| 148 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 149 | 12% | 52% | |
| 150 | 7% | 40% | |
| 151 | 24% | 34% | |
| 152 | 8% | 10% | |
| 153 | 2% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 4% | 98% | |
| 127 | 7% | 94% | |
| 128 | 6% | 86% | |
| 129 | 13% | 81% | |
| 130 | 11% | 67% | Median |
| 131 | 16% | 56% | |
| 132 | 8% | 40% | |
| 133 | 14% | 32% | |
| 134 | 12% | 18% | |
| 135 | 6% | 7% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 100 | 8% | 98% | |
| 101 | 9% | 90% | Majority |
| 102 | 7% | 81% | |
| 103 | 13% | 74% | |
| 104 | 15% | 61% | Median |
| 105 | 10% | 46% | |
| 106 | 13% | 36% | |
| 107 | 5% | 23% | |
| 108 | 8% | 18% | |
| 109 | 6% | 10% | |
| 110 | 4% | 5% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 95 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 96 | 5% | 98% | |
| 97 | 4% | 93% | |
| 98 | 6% | 89% | |
| 99 | 12% | 83% | |
| 100 | 15% | 71% | |
| 101 | 7% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 102 | 19% | 48% | |
| 103 | 15% | 29% | |
| 104 | 5% | 14% | |
| 105 | 4% | 9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 6% | |
| 107 | 3% | 4% | |
| 108 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 88 | 5% | 97% | |
| 89 | 4% | 93% | |
| 90 | 14% | 89% | |
| 91 | 15% | 76% | |
| 92 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 93 | 13% | 52% | |
| 94 | 17% | 39% | |
| 95 | 5% | 22% | |
| 96 | 7% | 17% | |
| 97 | 5% | 10% | |
| 98 | 4% | 5% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 7% | 95% | |
| 89 | 6% | 88% | |
| 90 | 7% | 83% | |
| 91 | 10% | 76% | |
| 92 | 26% | 66% | Median |
| 93 | 8% | 39% | |
| 94 | 14% | 31% | |
| 95 | 7% | 17% | |
| 96 | 5% | 10% | |
| 97 | 2% | 6% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 87 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 88 | 4% | 95% | |
| 89 | 4% | 92% | |
| 90 | 14% | 88% | |
| 91 | 12% | 74% | Median |
| 92 | 16% | 62% | |
| 93 | 15% | 46% | |
| 94 | 10% | 31% | |
| 95 | 6% | 21% | |
| 96 | 6% | 15% | |
| 97 | 4% | 9% | |
| 98 | 4% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 9% | 96% | |
| 75 | 10% | 87% | |
| 76 | 7% | 78% | |
| 77 | 12% | 71% | Median |
| 78 | 17% | 59% | |
| 79 | 8% | 42% | |
| 80 | 13% | 34% | |
| 81 | 9% | 21% | |
| 82 | 5% | 12% | |
| 83 | 5% | 8% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 14 May–10 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2412
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.19%