Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 6–26 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.2% 18.7–21.8% 18.3–22.2% 17.9–22.6% 17.3–23.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.7% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.8% 17.5–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.9% 14.6–17.4% 14.2–17.8% 13.9–18.1% 13.3–18.9%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.9% 12.7–15.3% 12.3–15.7% 12.0–16.0% 11.4–16.7%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.1–11.0% 7.9–11.3% 7.4–11.9%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 7.8% 6.8–8.9% 6.6–9.2% 6.4–9.5% 5.9–10.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.8% 3.6–6.0% 3.2–6.5%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 41–48 40–49 39–51 37–54
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 38–48 37–49 37–49 36–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 37 34–42 33–43 33–44 30–45
Vihreä liitto 15 27 23–30 22–31 22–32 21–33
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–21 14–22 14–22 12–24
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–16 11–18 10–19 10–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 7–11 7–11 6–11 6–13
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 4–6 3–6 2–6 1–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 94%  
42 7% 89%  
43 14% 83%  
44 7% 68%  
45 16% 62% Median
46 12% 46%  
47 17% 34%  
48 10% 17%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.4% 4%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.9%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 6% 99.1% Last Result
38 7% 93%  
39 6% 86%  
40 13% 80%  
41 13% 67%  
42 8% 54% Median
43 4% 47%  
44 4% 43%  
45 8% 39%  
46 8% 31%  
47 8% 23%  
48 6% 15%  
49 8% 9%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 0.8% 99.3%  
32 0.8% 98%  
33 3% 98%  
34 12% 94%  
35 18% 83%  
36 14% 65%  
37 7% 51% Median
38 10% 43%  
39 6% 33%  
40 5% 27%  
41 7% 22%  
42 8% 15%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 6% 99.0%  
23 8% 93%  
24 14% 85%  
25 9% 71%  
26 12% 62%  
27 11% 51% Median
28 13% 39%  
29 9% 27%  
30 7% 17%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.1% 1.2%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100% Last Result
13 0.7% 99.2%  
14 4% 98%  
15 6% 95%  
16 18% 88%  
17 22% 71% Median
18 10% 49%  
19 16% 39%  
20 7% 22%  
21 7% 15%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.5% 1.2%  
24 0.2% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.5%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 3% 96%  
12 16% 94%  
13 11% 77%  
14 37% 66% Median
15 6% 29%  
16 13% 23%  
17 4% 9%  
18 2% 6%  
19 1.3% 3%  
20 0.9% 2%  
21 0.7% 1.1%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 13% 97%  
8 28% 84%  
9 18% 56% Last Result, Median
10 22% 38%  
11 13% 16%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.8% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 2% 99.6%  
2 3% 98%  
3 3% 96%  
4 5% 93%  
5 10% 87% Last Result
6 76% 77% Median
7 0.5% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.7%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 66% 67% Median
2 1.4% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.4%  
4 0.1% 0.3%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 147 100% 142–151 141–152 141–154 138–156
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 129 100% 125–133 124–134 122–136 121–138
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 102 63% 98–107 97–109 95–110 93–111
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 96 3% 87–99 86–100 85–101 83–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 82 0% 75–86 73–87 72–88 71–90

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.8%  
139 0.8% 99.4%  
140 1.1% 98.7%  
141 3% 98%  
142 5% 94%  
143 11% 90%  
144 7% 79%  
145 10% 71%  
146 8% 61% Median
147 10% 53%  
148 8% 44%  
149 11% 35%  
150 7% 24%  
151 9% 17%  
152 4% 8%  
153 2% 5%  
154 1.1% 3%  
155 0.7% 2%  
156 0.6% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.3%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.2% 100%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.4% 99.5%  
122 2% 99.2%  
123 1.4% 97%  
124 6% 96%  
125 7% 90%  
126 6% 83%  
127 10% 77%  
128 8% 67%  
129 16% 60% Median
130 14% 44%  
131 10% 30%  
132 7% 21%  
133 5% 13%  
134 3% 8%  
135 2% 5%  
136 1.3% 3%  
137 0.7% 1.3%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.3% 0.4%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.7%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 1.3% 98.8%  
96 1.2% 97%  
97 5% 96%  
98 8% 91%  
99 8% 84%  
100 12% 75%  
101 8% 63% Majority
102 11% 55% Median
103 8% 44%  
104 4% 36%  
105 5% 32%  
106 11% 27%  
107 7% 16%  
108 2% 9%  
109 4% 7%  
110 3% 3%  
111 0.6% 0.9%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 1.4% 99.5%  
85 1.5% 98%  
86 5% 97%  
87 3% 92%  
88 6% 89%  
89 3% 83%  
90 4% 80%  
91 3% 76%  
92 3% 73%  
93 5% 70% Median
94 6% 65%  
95 9% 60%  
96 8% 51%  
97 14% 43%  
98 10% 28%  
99 9% 18%  
100 5% 9%  
101 2% 3% Majority
102 1.0% 1.5%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.7%  
72 2% 98.8%  
73 3% 97%  
74 2% 93%  
75 6% 91%  
76 4% 85%  
77 7% 82%  
78 4% 75%  
79 4% 71%  
80 5% 67% Median
81 9% 62%  
82 5% 53%  
83 15% 48%  
84 13% 33%  
85 10% 20%  
86 3% 10% Last Result
87 4% 7%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations