Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 6 June–3 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.3% 19.3–21.4% 19.0–21.7% 18.7–21.9% 18.3–22.5%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.7% 18.7–20.8% 18.4–21.1% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.6% 15.7–17.6% 15.4–17.9% 15.2–18.1% 14.7–18.6%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.9% 13.0–14.8% 12.8–15.1% 12.6–15.3% 12.2–15.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 10.3% 9.5–11.1% 9.3–11.4% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.2%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.0–4.3% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.7%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 46 44–47 42–47 41–48 40–50
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 40 39–45 38–46 38–47 37–48
Suomen Keskusta 49 37 35–40 35–42 34–42 34–44
Vihreä liitto 15 28 25–30 24–30 23–31 22–32
Perussuomalaiset 38 21 19–22 18–22 16–23 15–24
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 14–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 3–6 2–6 2–6 1–6
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 6 4–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 2% 97%  
43 5% 95%  
44 12% 90%  
45 25% 78%  
46 39% 53% Median
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.5% 100% Last Result
38 8% 99.5%  
39 21% 91%  
40 26% 70% Median
41 6% 44%  
42 9% 38%  
43 5% 29%  
44 10% 24%  
45 5% 14%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 4% 99.9%  
35 23% 96%  
36 13% 73%  
37 30% 60% Median
38 3% 30%  
39 12% 26%  
40 8% 14%  
41 1.2% 6%  
42 3% 5%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.8% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 7% 97%  
25 7% 91%  
26 12% 84%  
27 12% 71%  
28 39% 59% Median
29 10% 20%  
30 6% 11%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.7% 0.7%  
33 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 0.8% 97%  
18 3% 96%  
19 3% 93%  
20 7% 90%  
21 43% 82% Median
22 36% 39%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 1.1%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 4% 100% Last Result
13 3% 96%  
14 4% 93%  
15 12% 90%  
16 60% 78% Median
17 13% 17%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.2% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 7% 98%  
3 3% 91%  
4 2% 88%  
5 41% 87% Last Result, Median
6 46% 46%  
7 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 6% 87%  
6 50% 80% Median
7 27% 30%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 141 100% 138–144 137–144 136–145 134–146
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 125 100% 122–128 121–129 120–129 119–131
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 27% 97–103 96–104 95–105 94–108
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 97 16% 95–102 94–102 93–104 91–105
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 95 0.4% 91–97 89–99 89–99 86–100
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 89 0% 87–93 86–95 85–96 83–98
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 89 0% 85–91 84–92 82–93 81–95
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 78 0% 76–82 74–84 74–85 73–88

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0.7% 99.9%  
135 1.1% 99.2%  
136 2% 98%  
137 5% 96%  
138 7% 92%  
139 7% 84%  
140 21% 77%  
141 19% 56% Median
142 9% 37%  
143 17% 28%  
144 7% 11%  
145 3% 4%  
146 0.7% 1.2%  
147 0.3% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 1.3% 99.7%  
120 2% 98%  
121 4% 97%  
122 7% 93%  
123 5% 86%  
124 25% 81%  
125 17% 57% Median
126 11% 40%  
127 13% 28%  
128 8% 15%  
129 4% 7%  
130 1.5% 2%  
131 0.7% 0.9%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.6% 99.9%  
95 4% 99.3%  
96 4% 96%  
97 8% 91%  
98 30% 84% Median
99 8% 54%  
100 19% 46%  
101 10% 27% Majority
102 5% 17%  
103 3% 11%  
104 4% 8%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.9%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.7%  
92 1.1% 99.5%  
93 1.3% 98%  
94 3% 97%  
95 5% 94%  
96 23% 89%  
97 24% 65% Median
98 14% 41%  
99 7% 27%  
100 5% 21%  
101 3% 16% Majority
102 7% 12%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 1.0%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.5% 99.9%  
87 0.8% 99.5%  
88 0.8% 98.7%  
89 3% 98%  
90 2% 95%  
91 4% 93%  
92 7% 89%  
93 12% 82%  
94 15% 70%  
95 14% 54%  
96 25% 40% Median
97 7% 16%  
98 3% 8%  
99 4% 5%  
100 0.7% 1.1%  
101 0.2% 0.4% Majority
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.8% 99.9%  
84 0.6% 99.1%  
85 2% 98%  
86 6% 96%  
87 13% 91%  
88 21% 78% Median
89 16% 57%  
90 10% 40%  
91 8% 30%  
92 9% 22%  
93 3% 13%  
94 4% 10%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 1.1% 1.5%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
101 0% 0% Majority

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 2% 99.4%  
83 2% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 6% 93%  
86 6% 87%  
87 8% 81%  
88 15% 73%  
89 21% 58%  
90 22% 38% Median
91 7% 15%  
92 5% 8%  
93 1.1% 3%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 4% 99.3%  
75 5% 95%  
76 18% 90%  
77 18% 72% Median
78 7% 54%  
79 21% 47%  
80 6% 26%  
81 4% 19%  
82 7% 16%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations