Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 11 June–12 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 22.1% 21.1–23.2% 20.8–23.5% 20.5–23.8% 20.0–24.3%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.2% 19.2–21.2% 18.9–21.6% 18.7–21.8% 18.2–22.3%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.3% 14.4–16.3% 14.2–16.5% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.2%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.2% 12.4–14.1% 12.1–14.4% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.6% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.6% 8.5–10.8% 8.2–11.2%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 7.8% 7.1–8.5% 7.0–8.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 48 47–51 47–52 46–54 45–56
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 44 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 34 34–36 33–37 32–39 31–41
Vihreä liitto 15 25 24–28 23–28 22–29 21–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 18 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–18
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–9 7–10 6–11 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 6 6 5–6 3–7
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.8%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 46% 97%  
48 9% 51% Median
49 7% 42%  
50 19% 35%  
51 7% 16%  
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 0.4% 1.4%  
56 0.9% 1.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.5% 100% Last Result
38 2% 99.5%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 18% 89%  
42 5% 71%  
43 12% 66%  
44 5% 53% Median
45 7% 48%  
46 27% 41%  
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 7%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.9%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 5% 97%  
34 58% 91% Median
35 19% 33%  
36 7% 15%  
37 4% 8%  
38 1.5% 4%  
39 0.4% 3%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 1.2% 1.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.0%  
23 6% 96%  
24 13% 91%  
25 41% 77% Median
26 7% 36%  
27 10% 30%  
28 17% 20%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.5% 1.0%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 30% 98%  
18 23% 68% Median
19 15% 45%  
20 20% 30%  
21 9% 11%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.5%  
12 13% 98%  
13 25% 85%  
14 35% 60% Median
15 19% 24%  
16 3% 5%  
17 0.5% 2%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 11% 97%  
8 54% 86% Median
9 24% 32% Last Result
10 5% 8%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.9%  
4 0.5% 99.3%  
5 3% 98.9% Last Result
6 95% 96% Median
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 151 100% 149–152 147–154 146–154 144–155
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 132 100% 129–135 128–135 128–136 126–137
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 107 99.4% 104–110 102–110 102–111 100–112
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 93 0% 89–95 88–96 86–97 85–98
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 79 0% 75–82 74–83 73–83 72–85

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0.2% 100%  
144 0.6% 99.8%  
145 1.3% 99.2%  
146 0.8% 98%  
147 3% 97%  
148 3% 94%  
149 6% 92% Median
150 24% 86%  
151 36% 62%  
152 16% 26%  
153 4% 10%  
154 5% 6%  
155 0.7% 1.0%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0.3% 99.8%  
126 0.9% 99.5%  
127 0.8% 98.6%  
128 3% 98%  
129 7% 94%  
130 5% 88%  
131 11% 82% Median
132 31% 71%  
133 9% 40%  
134 20% 31%  
135 7% 11%  
136 3% 3%  
137 0.5% 0.8%  
138 0.2% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.5% 99.9%  
101 0.9% 99.4% Majority
102 4% 98%  
103 3% 95%  
104 8% 91%  
105 5% 83%  
106 20% 78% Median
107 31% 57%  
108 7% 26%  
109 8% 19%  
110 8% 11%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.9% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 1.2% 99.8%  
86 1.4% 98.6%  
87 2% 97%  
88 4% 96%  
89 16% 91%  
90 8% 75%  
91 9% 67%  
92 9% 59% Median
93 12% 50%  
94 12% 38%  
95 20% 27%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 1.2% 99.6%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 97%  
75 15% 92%  
76 7% 77%  
77 7% 70%  
78 9% 63% Median
79 8% 54%  
80 27% 46%  
81 8% 19%  
82 5% 11%  
83 3% 5%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations