Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 9 July–7 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.2% 20.2–22.3% 19.9–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.8% 18.8–20.9% 18.5–21.2% 18.2–21.4% 17.8–21.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.8% 16.8–18.8% 16.6–19.1% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.8%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.6% 12.7–14.5% 12.5–14.8% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.5%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.7% 8.0–9.5% 7.8–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.3%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 7.7% 7.1–8.4% 6.9–8.7% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.3–5.5%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.8% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.6–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 46 45–49 44–50 43–52 42–52
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 41 39–46 38–47 38–48 38–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 42 38–44 37–45 35–45 35–46
Vihreä liitto 15 27 24–28 23–30 22–31 22–31
Perussuomalaiset 38 15 14–18 14–19 13–20 12–21
Vasemmistoliitto 12 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 10–17
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 4–6 2–6 1–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 4% 97%  
45 29% 93%  
46 26% 64% Median
47 10% 39%  
48 11% 28%  
49 10% 18%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 5%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100% Last Result
38 6% 99.6%  
39 18% 93%  
40 22% 76%  
41 17% 54% Median
42 16% 37%  
43 5% 22%  
44 2% 17%  
45 3% 14%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 7%  
48 4% 4%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 2% 99.7%  
36 2% 97%  
37 2% 95%  
38 5% 93%  
39 3% 88%  
40 4% 85%  
41 15% 81%  
42 30% 66% Median
43 11% 36%  
44 16% 25%  
45 7% 8%  
46 0.9% 1.4%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 100%  
22 5% 99.6%  
23 3% 95%  
24 6% 92%  
25 16% 85%  
26 19% 69%  
27 15% 51% Median
28 27% 35%  
29 2% 8%  
30 3% 6%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 4% 99.3%  
14 28% 95%  
15 21% 67% Median
16 25% 46%  
17 7% 21%  
18 4% 14%  
19 5% 10%  
20 3% 5%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 0.5% 99.7%  
11 2% 99.2%  
12 29% 97% Last Result
13 16% 68%  
14 16% 52% Median
15 13% 37%  
16 22% 23%  
17 0.9% 1.2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 37% 98%  
8 32% 61% Median
9 5% 29% Last Result
10 23% 24%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.7% 99.9%  
2 2% 99.3%  
3 2% 97%  
4 3% 95%  
5 37% 93% Last Result
6 56% 56% Median
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 141 100% 139–145 138–147 137–147 136–149
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 128 100% 125–132 125–133 123–133 122–135
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 101 55% 98–106 98–107 98–108 96–110
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 19% 96–102 95–104 93–104 92–106
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 97 8% 93–100 93–102 91–102 89–104
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 95 2% 91–98 90–99 89–100 87–102
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 87 0% 83–90 82–91 81–91 79–94
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 83 0% 80–86 79–88 78–89 76–91

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.3% 99.9%  
136 0.8% 99.6%  
137 2% 98.8%  
138 4% 96%  
139 11% 92%  
140 11% 82%  
141 23% 71%  
142 22% 48% Median
143 6% 27%  
144 9% 21%  
145 4% 12%  
146 2% 8%  
147 4% 6%  
148 2% 2%  
149 0.5% 0.7%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0.2% 99.9%  
122 0.8% 99.8%  
123 2% 99.0%  
124 1.5% 97%  
125 9% 96%  
126 15% 87%  
127 22% 72%  
128 19% 50% Median
129 8% 31%  
130 10% 23%  
131 3% 13%  
132 4% 10%  
133 4% 6%  
134 1.2% 2%  
135 0.6% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.4%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.3% 100%  
96 0.7% 99.7%  
97 0.9% 99.0%  
98 8% 98%  
99 18% 90%  
100 16% 72%  
101 12% 55% Median, Majority
102 13% 43%  
103 9% 30%  
104 7% 21%  
105 4% 14%  
106 4% 10%  
107 4% 7%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.8% 1.4%  
110 0.5% 0.6%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.5% 99.7%  
93 2% 99.3%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 7% 93%  
97 17% 86%  
98 17% 69% Median
99 25% 52%  
100 9% 28%  
101 6% 19% Majority
102 5% 12%  
103 1.4% 8%  
104 4% 6%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.8% 1.2%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.2%  
91 1.1% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 6% 96%  
94 9% 90%  
95 18% 81%  
96 10% 63%  
97 17% 52% Median
98 13% 36%  
99 9% 23%  
100 6% 14% Last Result
101 3% 8% Majority
102 3% 5%  
103 1.4% 2%  
104 0.9% 1.1%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0.4% 99.8%  
88 1.0% 99.3%  
89 3% 98%  
90 2% 95%  
91 4% 94%  
92 4% 89%  
93 9% 85%  
94 21% 76%  
95 11% 55% Median
96 18% 44%  
97 13% 26%  
98 6% 13%  
99 3% 7%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.2% 2% Majority
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.9%  
80 0.7% 99.5%  
81 3% 98.8%  
82 3% 95%  
83 3% 92%  
84 10% 89%  
85 7% 80%  
86 15% 72%  
87 16% 57% Median
88 15% 41%  
89 11% 26%  
90 10% 15%  
91 3% 6%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.4%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 0.8% 99.1%  
78 2% 98%  
79 4% 97%  
80 6% 92%  
81 10% 86%  
82 12% 76%  
83 24% 64% Median
84 15% 40%  
85 10% 25%  
86 6% 15% Last Result
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations