Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 July–16 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.6% 20.3–23.0% 20.0–23.4% 19.6–23.8% 19.0–24.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.1% 18.9–21.5% 18.5–21.9% 18.2–22.2% 17.6–22.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.5% 14.3–16.7% 14.0–17.1% 13.7–17.4% 13.2–18.0%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.7% 12.6–14.8% 12.3–15.2% 12.0–15.5% 11.5–16.1%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.6% 8.7–10.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.8–11.7%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 7.9% 7.1–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.3–9.8%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–56
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 43 39–48 38–49 37–49 37–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–38 33–40 32–41 30–42
Vihreä liitto 15 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 18 17–21 16–21 15–22 14–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–20
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 3–6 2–6 2–7
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.5%  
43 3% 99.0%  
44 4% 96%  
45 8% 93%  
46 10% 84%  
47 32% 74% Median
48 9% 42%  
49 4% 33%  
50 4% 28%  
51 11% 24%  
52 4% 14%  
53 6% 9%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 1.1% 1.3%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 4% 99.9% Last Result
38 3% 96%  
39 4% 93%  
40 11% 89%  
41 9% 78%  
42 12% 69%  
43 13% 57% Median
44 7% 44%  
45 4% 37%  
46 14% 32%  
47 5% 19%  
48 6% 13%  
49 6% 7%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 3% 96%  
34 36% 93%  
35 27% 57% Median
36 15% 30%  
37 4% 15%  
38 3% 11%  
39 2% 8%  
40 2% 6%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.8% 1.2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 3% 98.8%  
23 2% 96%  
24 12% 94%  
25 30% 82%  
26 5% 52% Median
27 11% 47%  
28 18% 36%  
29 8% 17%  
30 6% 9%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100% Last Result
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.8% 99.7%  
15 2% 98.9%  
16 5% 97%  
17 32% 92%  
18 18% 60% Median
19 12% 43%  
20 18% 31%  
21 10% 13%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 2% 100%  
11 5% 98%  
12 14% 93%  
13 17% 78%  
14 29% 61% Median
15 20% 33%  
16 5% 12%  
17 2% 7%  
18 3% 5%  
19 1.5% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.8%  
6 5% 99.5%  
7 25% 94%  
8 40% 69% Median
9 11% 28% Last Result
10 11% 17%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.9%  
2 2% 99.7%  
3 4% 97%  
4 2% 93%  
5 14% 91% Last Result
6 76% 78% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 150 100% 146–153 145–153 143–154 142–156
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 131 100% 128–135 126–136 125–137 124–138
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 105 88% 100–110 100–110 99–111 97–113
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 93 0.6% 88–97 87–98 86–99 84–101
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 78 0% 74–83 73–84 72–85 71–87

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0.3% 99.9%  
142 0.4% 99.6%  
143 2% 99.2%  
144 1.3% 97%  
145 2% 96%  
146 5% 94%  
147 4% 89%  
148 13% 85% Median
149 10% 72%  
150 17% 63%  
151 19% 46%  
152 14% 27%  
153 8% 13%  
154 3% 5%  
155 2% 2%  
156 0.6% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.3% 99.9%  
124 2% 99.6%  
125 0.7% 98%  
126 2% 97%  
127 3% 95%  
128 4% 92%  
129 10% 88%  
130 18% 77% Median
131 13% 60%  
132 9% 47%  
133 10% 38%  
134 9% 29%  
135 12% 20%  
136 5% 8%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.7% 1.0%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.5% 99.8%  
98 0.6% 99.3%  
99 3% 98.7%  
100 8% 95%  
101 6% 88% Majority
102 6% 82%  
103 7% 76%  
104 8% 69% Median
105 15% 61%  
106 12% 47%  
107 8% 34%  
108 6% 26%  
109 9% 20%  
110 7% 11%  
111 3% 4%  
112 0.8% 1.3%  
113 0.3% 0.6%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0.6% 99.7%  
85 2% 99.1%  
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 5% 92%  
89 10% 86%  
90 11% 76%  
91 8% 66%  
92 7% 57% Median
93 10% 50%  
94 11% 41%  
95 6% 30%  
96 7% 25%  
97 11% 18%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.6% Majority
102 0.2% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 1.3% 99.8%  
72 2% 98.5%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 10% 89%  
76 8% 79%  
77 14% 71%  
78 7% 57% Median
79 9% 50%  
80 8% 41%  
81 6% 33%  
82 15% 27%  
83 6% 12%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations