Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 13–25 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.9% 20.4–23.5% 19.9–23.9% 19.6–24.3% 18.9–25.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.8% 18.4–21.4% 17.9–21.8% 17.6–22.2% 16.9–23.0%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.5% 14.2–16.9% 13.8–17.3% 13.5–17.7% 12.9–18.4%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.1% 11.9–14.5% 11.6–14.9% 11.3–15.2% 10.8–15.9%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.1–10.3% 7.8–10.6% 7.5–10.9% 7.1–11.5%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.2–10.3%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.2% 3.6–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.6% 2.9–6.0%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.4%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 48 46–53 44–54 43–56 41–59
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 38–48 38–49 37–49 36–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 33–40 33–42 32–43 30–44
Vihreä liitto 15 25 22–29 21–30 20–31 19–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–21 14–21 13–21 12–22
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 12–18 12–20 11–20 10–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 6–11 6–11 6–11 5–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 2–6 2–6 1–6 0–7
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.4%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 3% 97%  
45 4% 95%  
46 6% 91%  
47 24% 85%  
48 15% 61% Median
49 12% 46%  
50 8% 34%  
51 6% 26%  
52 5% 19%  
53 5% 14%  
54 5% 9%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.0%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 4% 99.1% Last Result
38 12% 95%  
39 9% 84%  
40 7% 75%  
41 9% 68%  
42 12% 59% Median
43 6% 47%  
44 6% 41%  
45 5% 35%  
46 6% 30%  
47 9% 24%  
48 7% 16%  
49 7% 9%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.1% 99.8%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.2% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 12% 96%  
34 22% 85%  
35 13% 63% Median
36 13% 50%  
37 12% 37%  
38 6% 25%  
39 7% 19%  
40 2% 12%  
41 3% 9%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 1.2% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.0%  
21 4% 97%  
22 14% 93%  
23 11% 80%  
24 13% 69%  
25 13% 55% Median
26 11% 42%  
27 7% 31%  
28 12% 24%  
29 6% 12%  
30 2% 6%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.6% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
13 2% 98.7%  
14 3% 97%  
15 5% 94%  
16 21% 89%  
17 27% 68% Median
18 7% 41%  
19 10% 33%  
20 10% 23%  
21 12% 13%  
22 1.2% 1.5%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 3% 98%  
12 14% 95%  
13 12% 82%  
14 29% 70% Median
15 15% 40%  
16 5% 26%  
17 5% 20%  
18 6% 15%  
19 4% 9%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.9%  
6 20% 98.6%  
7 22% 79%  
8 7% 57%  
9 7% 50% Last Result, Median
10 31% 43%  
11 13% 13%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 2% 99.0%  
2 7% 97%  
3 5% 90%  
4 5% 84%  
5 10% 79% Last Result
6 68% 69% Median
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.1% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 149 100% 143–152 142–153 141–154 139–155
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 130 100% 126–135 124–136 124–137 122–139
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 106 92% 101–110 99–111 98–111 96–114
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 94 4% 88–99 87–100 85–101 83–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 79 0% 74–85 72–86 71–86 70–89

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.4% 99.9%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 1.1% 99.3%  
141 2% 98%  
142 5% 97%  
143 2% 92%  
144 9% 90%  
145 6% 81%  
146 6% 75%  
147 10% 69% Median
148 8% 59%  
149 12% 50%  
150 11% 39%  
151 10% 28%  
152 10% 17%  
153 5% 8%  
154 1.4% 3%  
155 0.8% 1.2%  
156 0.3% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.9%  
122 0.4% 99.7%  
123 1.4% 99.2%  
124 3% 98%  
125 4% 95%  
126 6% 91%  
127 3% 85%  
128 10% 82%  
129 11% 71%  
130 12% 60% Median
131 10% 48%  
132 7% 38%  
133 8% 31%  
134 9% 23%  
135 6% 14%  
136 5% 9%  
137 2% 3%  
138 0.6% 1.2%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.2% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.6% 99.6%  
97 0.8% 98.9%  
98 2% 98%  
99 2% 96%  
100 2% 94%  
101 7% 92% Majority
102 5% 85%  
103 9% 80%  
104 10% 71%  
105 10% 61% Median
106 15% 51%  
107 9% 36%  
108 11% 27%  
109 4% 16%  
110 7% 12%  
111 3% 5%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.7% 2%  
114 0.3% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 1.2% 99.4%  
85 2% 98%  
86 1.4% 97%  
87 5% 95%  
88 6% 90%  
89 4% 84%  
90 6% 80%  
91 6% 74% Median
92 6% 68%  
93 7% 62%  
94 9% 54%  
95 13% 45%  
96 8% 32%  
97 6% 24%  
98 5% 18%  
99 4% 13%  
100 5% 9%  
101 2% 4% Majority
102 1.4% 2%  
103 0.5% 0.9%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 1.1% 99.8%  
71 2% 98.7%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 6% 91%  
75 9% 85%  
76 6% 76%  
77 7% 70% Median
78 9% 63%  
79 7% 54%  
80 7% 46%  
81 9% 40%  
82 6% 30%  
83 4% 25%  
84 9% 21%  
85 3% 12%  
86 7% 9% Last Result
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations