Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 13 August–4 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.3% 19.0–21.7% 18.6–22.1% 18.3–22.4% 17.7–23.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.0% 17.7–20.3% 17.3–20.7% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.8% 16.6–19.2% 16.2–19.5% 15.9–19.9% 15.3–20.5%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.6% 11.5–13.8% 11.2–14.1% 11.0–14.4% 10.5–15.0%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.4% 8.5–10.4% 8.2–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.6–11.5%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.2–10.2% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.3–11.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.1–5.9%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.5% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.4–4.9%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 42–48 41–49 40–50 39–51
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 40 38–42 37–45 37–46 35–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 42 39–45 37–45 36–46 35–48
Vihreä liitto 15 25 21–27 21–28 20–28 19–30
Perussuomalaiset 38 18 15–22 14–22 14–22 14–23
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 14–19 13–20 12–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 1–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.7%  
40 1.3% 98.7%  
41 7% 97%  
42 7% 90%  
43 5% 83%  
44 12% 79%  
45 18% 67% Median
46 26% 49%  
47 10% 22%  
48 7% 12%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.4%  
37 4% 98.8% Last Result
38 11% 95%  
39 16% 84%  
40 38% 67% Median
41 15% 29%  
42 5% 14%  
43 2% 9%  
44 2% 7%  
45 3% 6%  
46 0.9% 3%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 2% 99.6%  
36 1.5% 98%  
37 3% 97%  
38 2% 94%  
39 5% 91%  
40 9% 87%  
41 12% 77%  
42 23% 65% Median
43 12% 42%  
44 14% 30%  
45 12% 16%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.8%  
20 1.1% 98%  
21 7% 97%  
22 14% 90%  
23 17% 76%  
24 7% 59%  
25 20% 53% Median
26 21% 33%  
27 5% 12%  
28 5% 7%  
29 0.4% 2%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 6% 99.6%  
15 22% 94%  
16 10% 72%  
17 8% 61%  
18 11% 53% Median
19 9% 43%  
20 10% 34%  
21 6% 25%  
22 17% 18%  
23 0.9% 1.1%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.0% 100% Last Result
13 2% 99.0%  
14 4% 97%  
15 2% 93%  
16 35% 91%  
17 30% 56% Median
18 6% 26%  
19 17% 20%  
20 1.3% 3%  
21 1.2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 36% 96%  
8 39% 60% Median
9 6% 21% Last Result
10 12% 15%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 7% 97%  
2 9% 91%  
3 7% 82%  
4 4% 75%  
5 31% 71% Last Result, Median
6 39% 39%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 139 100% 135–142 134–144 134–145 133–148
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 122 100% 118–126 117–127 116–128 115–130
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 100 49% 97–104 95–104 94–105 91–108
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 98 12% 95–101 94–103 93–104 92–107
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 94 3% 90–97 89–99 89–101 86–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 95 4% 91–98 89–100 88–101 86–104
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 86 0% 82–90 81–91 80–92 78–95
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 82 0% 78–85 77–86 75–88 73–90

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 100%  
132 0.3% 99.9%  
133 2% 99.6%  
134 4% 98%  
135 4% 94%  
136 19% 90%  
137 8% 71%  
138 10% 63%  
139 8% 53%  
140 11% 44% Median
141 5% 33%  
142 19% 28%  
143 4% 9%  
144 2% 6%  
145 1.2% 3%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.0%  
148 0.3% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.2% 99.9%  
115 0.9% 99.7%  
116 2% 98.8%  
117 5% 97%  
118 4% 92%  
119 17% 88%  
120 7% 70%  
121 8% 64%  
122 6% 56%  
123 14% 50% Median
124 13% 36%  
125 5% 23%  
126 12% 18%  
127 3% 6%  
128 1.2% 3%  
129 0.9% 2%  
130 0.9% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.4% 99.3%  
93 0.4% 98.9%  
94 2% 98.5%  
95 2% 97%  
96 3% 95%  
97 10% 92%  
98 12% 82%  
99 12% 71%  
100 9% 58% Median
101 9% 49% Majority
102 17% 40%  
103 12% 22%  
104 6% 10%  
105 3% 5%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 2% 99.6%  
93 1.1% 98%  
94 6% 97%  
95 10% 91%  
96 15% 81%  
97 14% 65%  
98 18% 51% Median
99 6% 33%  
100 15% 27%  
101 4% 12% Majority
102 3% 8%  
103 2% 6%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.3%  
107 0.6% 0.9%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.4%  
88 0.9% 98.7%  
89 3% 98%  
90 5% 94%  
91 13% 89%  
92 5% 76%  
93 12% 71%  
94 11% 59%  
95 8% 48% Median
96 17% 39%  
97 12% 22%  
98 3% 10%  
99 3% 7%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.1% 3% Majority
102 0.4% 1.5%  
103 0.6% 1.1%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 1.0% 99.3%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 4% 97%  
90 3% 94%  
91 4% 91%  
92 8% 87%  
93 16% 80%  
94 8% 64%  
95 15% 55% Median
96 15% 40%  
97 7% 25%  
98 8% 18%  
99 4% 10%  
100 2% 6% Last Result
101 2% 4% Majority
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.4%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.5%  
79 1.1% 98.9%  
80 1.0% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 6% 94%  
83 3% 88%  
84 17% 84%  
85 8% 68%  
86 10% 60%  
87 8% 50% Median
88 20% 42%  
89 12% 23%  
90 6% 11%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.3%  
75 1.3% 98.7%  
76 2% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 4% 94%  
79 3% 90%  
80 16% 87%  
81 5% 71%  
82 17% 66% Median
83 17% 49%  
84 10% 32%  
85 14% 22%  
86 4% 8% Last Result
87 2% 5%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 1.0% 1.4%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations