Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 20 August–14 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.4% 20.1–22.7% 19.7–23.1% 19.4–23.5% 18.8–24.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.7% 18.4–21.0% 18.1–21.4% 17.8–21.7% 17.2–22.4%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.5% 14.4–16.7% 14.1–17.1% 13.8–17.3% 13.3–18.0%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.9% 11.9–14.1% 11.6–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 10.9–15.2%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.6% 8.7–10.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.2–11.1% 7.8–11.6%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.7% 7.9–9.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.4–10.2% 7.0–10.7%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.5% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.3–6.0%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–52 44–52 43–52 42–56
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 38–47 37–48 37–48 37–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–39 33–41 32–42 31–43
Vihreä liitto 15 25 22–28 22–28 21–29 19–30
Vasemmistoliitto 12 18 16–21 16–22 15–22 14–23
Perussuomalaiset 38 16 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–12
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 3–6 2–6 2–6 2–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.5%  
43 3% 98.7%  
44 3% 96%  
45 7% 93%  
46 8% 86%  
47 33% 78% Median
48 15% 45%  
49 7% 31%  
50 5% 23%  
51 7% 18%  
52 9% 11%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.4%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 5% 99.8% Last Result
38 9% 95%  
39 6% 86%  
40 7% 80%  
41 18% 73%  
42 15% 55% Median
43 11% 40%  
44 5% 29%  
45 6% 25%  
46 4% 18%  
47 9% 15%  
48 3% 5%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.8% 99.5%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 4% 97%  
34 38% 93%  
35 22% 54% Median
36 9% 32%  
37 8% 22%  
38 4% 14%  
39 3% 11%  
40 2% 8%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 1.3% 99.2%  
21 2% 98%  
22 14% 96%  
23 11% 82%  
24 13% 71%  
25 28% 58% Median
26 12% 30%  
27 7% 18%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 4%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.8%  
15 1.5% 98.8%  
16 14% 97%  
17 21% 84%  
18 17% 63% Median
19 17% 46%  
20 13% 29%  
21 10% 16%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 3% 98%  
14 28% 95%  
15 13% 67%  
16 19% 54% Median
17 9% 35%  
18 10% 26%  
19 9% 16%  
20 3% 7%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 1.0% 99.9%  
7 12% 98.9%  
8 31% 87%  
9 21% 56% Last Result, Median
10 15% 35%  
11 19% 20%  
12 0.3% 0.5%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.9%  
2 6% 99.5%  
3 4% 94%  
4 3% 90%  
5 19% 87% Last Result
6 68% 68% Median
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 148 100% 143–151 143–151 142–152 139–154
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 129 100% 125–134 124–134 123–134 121–136
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 105 84% 100–109 99–110 98–110 97–112
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 93 2% 90–98 88–99 87–100 86–102
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 77 0% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–85

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.4% 99.8%  
140 0.6% 99.5%  
141 1.2% 98.8%  
142 2% 98%  
143 6% 96%  
144 4% 89%  
145 10% 85%  
146 11% 75%  
147 5% 64% Median
148 16% 59%  
149 18% 42%  
150 4% 25%  
151 17% 21%  
152 2% 3%  
153 1.0% 2%  
154 0.4% 0.6%  
155 0.2% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0.2% 99.9%  
121 0.5% 99.8%  
122 0.9% 99.3%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 3% 97%  
125 7% 94%  
126 7% 88%  
127 9% 80%  
128 11% 71%  
129 11% 60% Median
130 22% 50%  
131 7% 27%  
132 5% 21%  
133 5% 15%  
134 9% 11%  
135 0.7% 1.3%  
136 0.4% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.6%  
98 3% 99.2%  
99 2% 96%  
100 10% 94%  
101 5% 84% Majority
102 7% 79%  
103 7% 72%  
104 12% 65% Median
105 18% 53%  
106 11% 36%  
107 8% 25%  
108 4% 17%  
109 4% 13%  
110 7% 8%  
111 0.5% 1.1%  
112 0.4% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.7% 99.6%  
87 2% 98.9%  
88 3% 97%  
89 2% 94%  
90 5% 92%  
91 18% 87%  
92 10% 70%  
93 11% 59% Median
94 10% 48%  
95 8% 38%  
96 8% 31%  
97 6% 22%  
98 9% 16%  
99 4% 7%  
100 0.7% 3%  
101 2% 2% Majority
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 1.3% 99.5%  
72 2% 98%  
73 5% 97%  
74 4% 92%  
75 15% 87%  
76 10% 72%  
77 19% 62% Median
78 8% 43%  
79 6% 35%  
80 8% 29%  
81 8% 22%  
82 4% 13%  
83 5% 9%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.8% 1.1%  
86 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations