Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 10 September–2 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 22.6% 21.2–24.1% 20.8–24.5% 20.5–24.9% 19.8–25.6%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 18.9% 17.6–20.3% 17.2–20.7% 16.9–21.0% 16.3–21.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.6% 16.3–18.9% 16.0–19.3% 15.7–19.7% 15.1–20.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 11.6% 10.6–12.8% 10.3–13.1% 10.0–13.4% 9.6–14.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.8% 8.9–10.9% 8.6–11.2% 8.4–11.5% 7.9–12.1%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.3% 8.4–10.4% 8.1–10.7% 7.9–11.0% 7.5–11.5%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.7%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.7% 3.2–4.5% 3.0–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.6–5.2%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 50 46–54 46–55 45–56 44–58
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 39 37–42 37–43 36–44 32–47
Suomen Keskusta 49 41 36–44 35–45 34–46 34–47
Vihreä liitto 15 21 19–23 18–24 18–26 17–28
Vasemmistoliitto 12 19 16–21 16–21 16–22 14–23
Perussuomalaiset 38 17 14–21 14–21 14–22 13–23
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 2–7
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 6–8 5–9 4–10 4–10
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.6%  
45 2% 99.1%  
46 8% 97%  
47 9% 89%  
48 13% 80%  
49 14% 68%  
50 19% 53% Median
51 9% 34%  
52 8% 25%  
53 7% 17%  
54 3% 10%  
55 4% 7%  
56 0.8% 3%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.4%  
34 0.4% 99.0%  
35 0.7% 98.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 15% 96% Last Result
38 21% 81%  
39 28% 60% Median
40 15% 31%  
41 6% 16%  
42 3% 11%  
43 4% 8%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.4% 2%  
46 0.4% 2%  
47 0.7% 1.2%  
48 0.2% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 3% 99.8%  
35 6% 96%  
36 4% 91%  
37 10% 87%  
38 12% 78%  
39 5% 65%  
40 5% 60%  
41 16% 55% Median
42 12% 39%  
43 10% 27%  
44 9% 17%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 7% 98.8%  
19 23% 92%  
20 12% 69%  
21 16% 57% Median
22 20% 40%  
23 12% 20%  
24 4% 9%  
25 2% 5%  
26 1.4% 3%  
27 0.7% 1.3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100% Last Result
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.7%  
15 2% 99.3%  
16 14% 98%  
17 17% 84%  
18 12% 67%  
19 30% 55% Median
20 9% 24%  
21 12% 15%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.8%  
14 11% 98.7%  
15 19% 87%  
16 13% 69%  
17 8% 56% Median
18 8% 48%  
19 9% 40%  
20 17% 31%  
21 9% 14%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.9%  
2 1.3% 99.7%  
3 0.7% 98%  
4 1.2% 98%  
5 10% 97% Last Result
6 85% 86% Median
7 0.8% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 2% 96%  
6 17% 95%  
7 49% 78% Median
8 22% 29%  
9 3% 7% Last Result
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 141 100% 137–145 135–147 135–148 134–150
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 123 100% 119–126 118–128 117–130 115–132
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 101 65% 98–106 96–107 96–109 94–111
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 96 7% 92–100 91–102 90–104 88–106
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 15% 93–101 91–102 90–103 87–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 93 0.3% 88–97 86–98 85–98 83–100
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 89 0.1% 85–93 84–95 83–97 81–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 80 0% 75–84 74–84 73–85 71–87

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.3% 99.9%  
134 1.0% 99.7%  
135 4% 98.7%  
136 2% 94%  
137 4% 92%  
138 9% 88%  
139 6% 79%  
140 8% 73%  
141 18% 65%  
142 17% 48% Median
143 10% 30%  
144 8% 20%  
145 2% 12%  
146 5% 10%  
147 2% 5%  
148 1.3% 3%  
149 0.9% 2%  
150 1.1% 1.4%  
151 0.3% 0.3%  
152 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.4% 99.8%  
116 0.8% 99.5%  
117 3% 98.6%  
118 4% 96%  
119 7% 92%  
120 8% 85%  
121 10% 77%  
122 15% 68%  
123 15% 53% Median
124 12% 38%  
125 10% 26%  
126 7% 16%  
127 2% 9%  
128 3% 7%  
129 0.8% 5%  
130 2% 4%  
131 1.2% 2%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.3% 0.4%  
134 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.7%  
95 1.1% 99.4%  
96 3% 98%  
97 2% 95%  
98 4% 93%  
99 13% 89%  
100 11% 76%  
101 16% 65% Majority
102 10% 50% Median
103 13% 39%  
104 9% 27%  
105 4% 18%  
106 4% 14%  
107 5% 10%  
108 2% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.5% 1.1%  
111 0.5% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.3% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.7% 99.4%  
90 3% 98.7%  
91 4% 96%  
92 6% 92%  
93 4% 86%  
94 7% 82%  
95 13% 75%  
96 13% 62%  
97 15% 49% Median
98 8% 34%  
99 13% 26%  
100 6% 13%  
101 2% 7% Majority
102 2% 5%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.6% 0.9%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0.5% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.3%  
89 1.0% 98.8%  
90 1.4% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 1.5% 95%  
93 5% 93%  
94 12% 88%  
95 9% 76%  
96 16% 68%  
97 10% 52% Median
98 15% 42%  
99 8% 27%  
100 4% 19%  
101 6% 15% Majority
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 2% 98.9%  
86 3% 97%  
87 2% 94%  
88 6% 92%  
89 12% 85%  
90 6% 74%  
91 6% 68%  
92 10% 61%  
93 9% 51% Median
94 16% 42%  
95 11% 27%  
96 5% 15%  
97 5% 10%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.3% Majority
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.5% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.4%  
83 2% 98.8%  
84 5% 97%  
85 6% 92%  
86 6% 86%  
87 7% 81%  
88 11% 74%  
89 19% 63%  
90 6% 44% Median
91 17% 38%  
92 10% 21%  
93 4% 11%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 0.6% 3%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.4% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 99.1%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 10% 94%  
76 9% 84%  
77 7% 75%  
78 7% 68%  
79 8% 60%  
80 10% 53% Median
81 16% 43%  
82 8% 27%  
83 9% 19%  
84 5% 10%  
85 3% 5%  
86 1.0% 2% Last Result
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations