Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 17 September–11 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 16.5% | 22.0% | 20.9–23.1% | 20.6–23.4% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.3% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 18.2% | 19.6% | 18.6–20.7% | 18.3–21.0% | 18.1–21.3% | 17.6–21.8% |
| Suomen Keskusta | 21.1% | 15.7% | 14.8–16.7% | 14.5–17.0% | 14.3–17.2% | 13.9–17.7% |
| Vihreä liitto | 8.5% | 12.0% | 11.2–12.9% | 10.9–13.1% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.1–10.6% | 8.9–10.9% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.3–11.5% |
| Perussuomalaiset | 17.6% | 9.1% | 8.4–9.9% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.4–4.4% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.8% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 34 | 48 | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–54 | 44–56 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 37 | 42 | 39–47 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 37–49 |
| Suomen Keskusta | 49 | 35 | 34–38 | 33–41 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| Vihreä liitto | 15 | 22 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 12 | 18 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 16–22 | 16–22 |
| Perussuomalaiset | 38 | 17 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 14–22 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 9 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 5 | 6 | 4–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 35% | 94% | |
| 48 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 49 | 10% | 42% | |
| 50 | 14% | 32% | |
| 51 | 6% | 18% | |
| 52 | 5% | 12% | |
| 53 | 3% | 7% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 38 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 12% | 92% | |
| 40 | 10% | 81% | |
| 41 | 9% | 71% | |
| 42 | 15% | 62% | Median |
| 43 | 12% | 47% | |
| 44 | 17% | 35% | |
| 45 | 4% | 19% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 47 | 10% | 13% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 27% | 95% | |
| 35 | 21% | 68% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 47% | |
| 37 | 13% | 29% | |
| 38 | 7% | 17% | |
| 39 | 2% | 10% | |
| 40 | 2% | 8% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 9% | 94% | |
| 21 | 10% | 85% | |
| 22 | 33% | 75% | Median |
| 23 | 22% | 41% | |
| 24 | 12% | 19% | |
| 25 | 4% | 7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 8% | 92% | |
| 18 | 37% | 85% | Median |
| 19 | 15% | 48% | |
| 20 | 15% | 33% | |
| 21 | 13% | 18% | |
| 22 | 5% | 5% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 20% | 89% | |
| 16 | 12% | 70% | |
| 17 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 49% | |
| 19 | 10% | 25% | |
| 20 | 9% | 16% | |
| 21 | 5% | 6% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 46% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 37% | Last Result |
| 10 | 16% | 21% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 95% | |
| 4 | 4% | 92% | |
| 5 | 12% | 88% | Last Result |
| 6 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 112 | 146 | 100% | 143–149 | 142–150 | 141–150 | 139–152 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 128 | 100% | 124–130 | 123–131 | 122–132 | 120–133 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 85 | 105 | 96% | 101–108 | 101–109 | 100–110 | 99–111 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 70 | 98 | 20% | 95–102 | 94–103 | 94–104 | 92–106 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset | 124 | 96 | 2% | 92–98 | 91–99 | 90–100 | 87–102 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 92 | 0% | 88–97 | 88–97 | 87–97 | 85–98 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto | 61 | 89 | 0% | 87–93 | 86–94 | 85–95 | 84–98 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus | 86 | 78 | 0% | 75–83 | 74–83 | 73–83 | 71–85 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 141 | 3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 4% | 95% | |
| 143 | 8% | 92% | |
| 144 | 9% | 83% | Median |
| 145 | 11% | 75% | |
| 146 | 15% | 64% | |
| 147 | 15% | 49% | |
| 148 | 21% | 34% | |
| 149 | 7% | 13% | |
| 150 | 3% | 6% | |
| 151 | 2% | 2% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 2% | 97% | |
| 124 | 12% | 94% | |
| 125 | 11% | 83% | |
| 126 | 10% | 72% | Median |
| 127 | 10% | 62% | |
| 128 | 14% | 53% | |
| 129 | 17% | 38% | |
| 130 | 14% | 21% | |
| 131 | 4% | 7% | |
| 132 | 2% | 3% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 101 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 102 | 8% | 89% | |
| 103 | 14% | 81% | |
| 104 | 7% | 68% | Median |
| 105 | 18% | 61% | |
| 106 | 14% | 43% | |
| 107 | 7% | 29% | |
| 108 | 13% | 22% | |
| 109 | 6% | 10% | |
| 110 | 3% | 4% | |
| 111 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 112 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 94 | 3% | 98% | |
| 95 | 12% | 95% | |
| 96 | 8% | 83% | Median |
| 97 | 20% | 75% | |
| 98 | 12% | 54% | |
| 99 | 12% | 43% | |
| 100 | 11% | 31% | |
| 101 | 9% | 20% | Majority |
| 102 | 4% | 11% | |
| 103 | 4% | 6% | |
| 104 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 89 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98% | |
| 91 | 3% | 96% | |
| 92 | 9% | 92% | |
| 93 | 6% | 84% | |
| 94 | 14% | 78% | Median |
| 95 | 11% | 63% | |
| 96 | 19% | 52% | |
| 97 | 11% | 33% | |
| 98 | 15% | 22% | |
| 99 | 4% | 7% | |
| 100 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.6% | 2% | Majority |
| 102 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 87 | 3% | 98% | |
| 88 | 6% | 95% | |
| 89 | 10% | 89% | |
| 90 | 7% | 79% | |
| 91 | 14% | 72% | Median |
| 92 | 22% | 58% | |
| 93 | 7% | 37% | |
| 94 | 8% | 30% | |
| 95 | 5% | 22% | |
| 96 | 5% | 18% | |
| 97 | 11% | 13% | |
| 98 | 2% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 85 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 86 | 3% | 97% | |
| 87 | 18% | 94% | |
| 88 | 10% | 76% | Median |
| 89 | 17% | 66% | |
| 90 | 14% | 49% | |
| 91 | 11% | 36% | |
| 92 | 9% | 25% | |
| 93 | 9% | 16% | |
| 94 | 2% | 7% | |
| 95 | 3% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 4% | 96% | |
| 75 | 10% | 92% | |
| 76 | 10% | 82% | |
| 77 | 16% | 72% | Median |
| 78 | 20% | 56% | |
| 79 | 7% | 36% | |
| 80 | 7% | 29% | |
| 81 | 6% | 22% | |
| 82 | 4% | 16% | |
| 83 | 10% | 13% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 17 September–11 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2386
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.91%