Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 3 October–6 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 22.7% 21.5–23.9% 21.2–24.3% 20.9–24.6% 20.3–25.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 20.2% 19.1–21.4% 18.8–21.7% 18.5–22.0% 18.0–22.6%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 11.3% 10.5–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 10.0–12.8% 9.6–13.2%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.8% 9.0–10.7% 8.7–10.9% 8.6–11.2% 8.2–11.6%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.2% 8.4–10.1% 8.2–10.3% 8.0–10.5% 7.6–11.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.4% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 50 47–53 47–53 46–56 45–58
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 44 39–47 39–49 38–49 38–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 36 35–41 34–42 34–42 33–44
Vihreä liitto 15 20 18–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Perussuomalaiset 38 19 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–23
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 1–6 1–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.3%  
47 13% 96%  
48 13% 82%  
49 11% 69%  
50 19% 58% Median
51 4% 39%  
52 17% 35%  
53 13% 18%  
54 1.1% 4%  
55 0.4% 3%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.4%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100% Last Result
38 3% 99.7%  
39 10% 97%  
40 14% 87%  
41 10% 73%  
42 6% 63%  
43 7% 57%  
44 15% 50% Median
45 4% 35%  
46 5% 30%  
47 16% 26%  
48 5% 10%  
49 5% 5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.7% 99.6%  
34 4% 98.9%  
35 38% 95%  
36 16% 57% Median
37 8% 40%  
38 7% 32%  
39 6% 26%  
40 5% 19%  
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.9% 1.2%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100% Last Result
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 1.2% 99.7%  
18 14% 98%  
19 29% 85%  
20 16% 55% Median
21 9% 39%  
22 13% 31%  
23 16% 18%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 5% 99.6%  
16 8% 95%  
17 7% 87%  
18 12% 80%  
19 25% 69% Median
20 19% 44%  
21 22% 24%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100% Last Result
13 0.3% 99.5%  
14 5% 99.2%  
15 3% 94%  
16 38% 91%  
17 13% 53% Median
18 29% 40%  
19 5% 11%  
20 4% 7%  
21 0.9% 3%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 26% 97%  
8 47% 71% Median
9 10% 24% Last Result
10 12% 14%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 4% 98%  
2 19% 94%  
3 7% 76%  
4 17% 69%  
5 15% 51% Last Result, Median
6 37% 37%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 143 100% 141–145 139–146 139–147 137–149
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 123–129 122–130 121–131 119–132
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 106 98% 102–109 102–109 101–110 98–112
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 33% 96–103 94–104 93–105 91–107
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 96 3% 91–99 90–100 90–101 89–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 92 1.1% 89–97 87–98 87–99 85–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 88 0% 83–91 82–92 82–93 81–95
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 80 0% 76–84 75–86 75–87 73–88

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.3% 99.5%  
138 1.2% 99.2%  
139 4% 98%  
140 4% 94%  
141 12% 90%  
142 11% 78%  
143 24% 67%  
144 20% 43% Median
145 14% 22%  
146 4% 9%  
147 2% 4%  
148 1.0% 2%  
149 0.8% 0.9%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.5%  
121 2% 99.0%  
122 3% 96%  
123 8% 94%  
124 6% 85%  
125 17% 79%  
126 24% 62%  
127 15% 39% Median
128 6% 23%  
129 10% 17%  
130 2% 7%  
131 4% 5%  
132 0.8% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.2%  
134 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.5% 99.8%  
99 0.7% 99.3%  
100 1.0% 98.5%  
101 2% 98% Majority
102 8% 96%  
103 9% 88%  
104 11% 79%  
105 10% 68%  
106 16% 58%  
107 17% 42% Median
108 5% 25%  
109 15% 20%  
110 2% 4%  
111 2% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.8%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.2% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 0.5% 99.3%  
93 1.5% 98.8%  
94 3% 97%  
95 4% 95%  
96 8% 91%  
97 5% 83%  
98 21% 77%  
99 12% 56% Median
100 11% 44%  
101 6% 33% Majority
102 12% 27%  
103 7% 15%  
104 5% 8%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.5% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 7% 99.4%  
91 5% 93%  
92 11% 87%  
93 7% 77%  
94 5% 69%  
95 10% 65% Median
96 6% 55%  
97 26% 49%  
98 8% 23%  
99 7% 15%  
100 4% 8%  
101 2% 3% Majority
102 0.6% 1.4%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 1.1% 99.7%  
86 0.7% 98.5%  
87 5% 98%  
88 1.2% 93%  
89 15% 92%  
90 9% 77%  
91 10% 68%  
92 12% 58%  
93 5% 46% Median
94 7% 40%  
95 6% 34%  
96 13% 28%  
97 9% 15%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.9% 2% Last Result
101 1.0% 1.1% Majority
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.4% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 5% 98.9%  
83 4% 93%  
84 14% 90%  
85 7% 76%  
86 8% 69%  
87 6% 61% Median
88 10% 55%  
89 22% 45%  
90 9% 23%  
91 7% 14%  
92 4% 7%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 1.5% 99.0%  
75 3% 98%  
76 5% 94%  
77 11% 90%  
78 5% 79%  
79 21% 74%  
80 9% 53% Median
81 8% 44%  
82 8% 35%  
83 13% 28%  
84 5% 14%  
85 3% 9%  
86 3% 6% Last Result
87 1.3% 3%  
88 1.2% 1.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations