Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 15 October–12 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 16.5% | 22.4% | 21.3–23.5% | 21.0–23.9% | 20.7–24.1% | 20.2–24.7% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 18.2% | 19.7% | 18.7–20.8% | 18.4–21.1% | 18.1–21.4% | 17.6–21.9% |
| Suomen Keskusta | 21.1% | 15.4% | 14.4–16.4% | 14.2–16.7% | 14.0–16.9% | 13.5–17.4% |
| Vihreä liitto | 8.5% | 12.5% | 11.6–13.4% | 11.4–13.7% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.8–14.4% |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.9–10.5% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% |
| Perussuomalaiset | 17.6% | 8.7% | 8.0–9.5% | 7.8–9.7% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.3–10.3% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9–5.0% | 3.8–5.2% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0.0% | 1.2% | 1.0–1.6% | 0.9–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 34 | 48 | 47–53 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 44–57 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 37 | 42 | 39–47 | 38–47 | 38–48 | 37–49 |
| Suomen Keskusta | 49 | 35 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 33–41 | 31–42 |
| Vihreä liitto | 15 | 23 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 19–29 |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 12 | 19 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Perussuomalaiset | 38 | 15 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–21 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 9 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 31% | 95% | |
| 48 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 49 | 11% | 47% | |
| 50 | 11% | 36% | |
| 51 | 7% | 25% | |
| 52 | 7% | 18% | |
| 53 | 5% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 38 | 7% | 98% | |
| 39 | 9% | 91% | |
| 40 | 10% | 81% | |
| 41 | 12% | 71% | |
| 42 | 14% | 58% | Median |
| 43 | 9% | 45% | |
| 44 | 11% | 36% | |
| 45 | 10% | 24% | |
| 46 | 4% | 15% | |
| 47 | 8% | 11% | |
| 48 | 2% | 3% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 33 | 4% | 98% | |
| 34 | 42% | 94% | |
| 35 | 27% | 51% | Median |
| 36 | 6% | 25% | |
| 37 | 3% | 18% | |
| 38 | 3% | 16% | |
| 39 | 3% | 12% | |
| 40 | 6% | 9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98% | |
| 21 | 3% | 96% | |
| 22 | 22% | 93% | |
| 23 | 23% | 71% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 48% | |
| 25 | 15% | 29% | |
| 26 | 6% | 15% | |
| 27 | 4% | 9% | |
| 28 | 4% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 19% | 92% | |
| 18 | 20% | 73% | |
| 19 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 34% | |
| 21 | 13% | 16% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 37% | 96% | |
| 15 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 39% | |
| 17 | 6% | 29% | |
| 18 | 10% | 22% | |
| 19 | 5% | 12% | |
| 20 | 4% | 7% | |
| 21 | 3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 16% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 40% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 43% | Last Result |
| 10 | 18% | 24% | |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 98% | |
| 4 | 2% | 96% | |
| 5 | 8% | 94% | Last Result |
| 6 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 112 | 149 | 100% | 144–151 | 143–151 | 143–152 | 141–153 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 130 | 100% | 126–133 | 125–133 | 124–134 | 123–135 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 85 | 106 | 97% | 102–109 | 101–110 | 100–110 | 99–112 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 70 | 100 | 42% | 96–104 | 95–106 | 93–106 | 93–108 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset | 124 | 93 | 0.5% | 89–97 | 88–98 | 87–100 | 86–100 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto | 61 | 92 | 0.1% | 87–95 | 86–97 | 86–98 | 85–99 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 92 | 0.1% | 88–96 | 86–97 | 86–97 | 84–98 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus | 86 | 78 | 0% | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–83 | 71–85 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 6% | 98% | |
| 144 | 3% | 92% | |
| 145 | 11% | 88% | |
| 146 | 7% | 77% | Median |
| 147 | 6% | 70% | |
| 148 | 13% | 63% | |
| 149 | 10% | 51% | |
| 150 | 17% | 41% | |
| 151 | 20% | 23% | |
| 152 | 2% | 3% | |
| 153 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 124 | 2% | 98% | |
| 125 | 6% | 96% | |
| 126 | 8% | 90% | |
| 127 | 9% | 83% | Median |
| 128 | 8% | 73% | |
| 129 | 14% | 66% | |
| 130 | 13% | 52% | |
| 131 | 14% | 39% | |
| 132 | 14% | 25% | |
| 133 | 6% | 10% | |
| 134 | 3% | 4% | |
| 135 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 100 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 4% | 97% | Majority |
| 102 | 8% | 94% | |
| 103 | 8% | 85% | |
| 104 | 11% | 77% | Median |
| 105 | 6% | 67% | |
| 106 | 18% | 61% | |
| 107 | 17% | 43% | |
| 108 | 13% | 26% | |
| 109 | 5% | 12% | |
| 110 | 5% | 7% | |
| 111 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 94 | 2% | 97% | |
| 95 | 4% | 96% | |
| 96 | 4% | 92% | |
| 97 | 7% | 88% | |
| 98 | 11% | 81% | Median |
| 99 | 16% | 69% | |
| 100 | 11% | 53% | |
| 101 | 13% | 42% | Majority |
| 102 | 11% | 29% | |
| 103 | 5% | 19% | |
| 104 | 4% | 14% | |
| 105 | 4% | 9% | |
| 106 | 3% | 5% | |
| 107 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 87 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 88 | 4% | 97% | |
| 89 | 5% | 92% | |
| 90 | 5% | 88% | |
| 91 | 9% | 83% | |
| 92 | 13% | 74% | Median |
| 93 | 12% | 61% | |
| 94 | 15% | 49% | |
| 95 | 13% | 34% | |
| 96 | 7% | 21% | |
| 97 | 5% | 14% | |
| 98 | 4% | 9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 5% | |
| 100 | 3% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 86 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 87 | 5% | 94% | |
| 88 | 10% | 89% | |
| 89 | 6% | 80% | |
| 90 | 15% | 74% | Median |
| 91 | 6% | 59% | |
| 92 | 19% | 53% | |
| 93 | 9% | 34% | |
| 94 | 11% | 25% | |
| 95 | 5% | 14% | |
| 96 | 3% | 9% | |
| 97 | 3% | 7% | |
| 98 | 3% | 4% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 87 | 4% | 95% | |
| 88 | 5% | 91% | |
| 89 | 8% | 86% | |
| 90 | 7% | 77% | |
| 91 | 16% | 70% | Median |
| 92 | 9% | 54% | |
| 93 | 15% | 45% | |
| 94 | 7% | 30% | |
| 95 | 9% | 22% | |
| 96 | 4% | 13% | |
| 97 | 7% | 9% | |
| 98 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 7% | 97% | |
| 74 | 8% | 90% | |
| 75 | 6% | 82% | |
| 76 | 13% | 76% | |
| 77 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 78 | 7% | 51% | |
| 79 | 15% | 44% | |
| 80 | 10% | 29% | |
| 81 | 10% | 19% | |
| 82 | 5% | 8% | |
| 83 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 15 October–12 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2314
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.02%