Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 12 November–4 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.5% 20.3–22.8% 20.0–23.1% 19.7–23.5% 19.1–24.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.1% 18.0–20.3% 17.6–20.7% 17.4–21.0% 16.8–21.6%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.6–18.5% 15.3–18.8% 14.8–19.4%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.9% 12.9–15.0% 12.6–15.3% 12.4–15.6% 11.9–16.1%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.5% 7.7–9.4% 7.5–9.7% 7.3–9.9% 6.9–10.3%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.3% 7.0–9.5% 6.6–9.9%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–51 45–52 45–53 42–54
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 39 38–43 37–45 37–46 36–48
Suomen Keskusta 49 41 36–43 35–44 34–44 34–45
Vihreä liitto 15 28 24–30 23–31 23–32 22–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 14–18 13–19 12–19 12–20
Perussuomalaiset 38 14 13–16 12–18 12–19 11–21
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 2–7
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 7–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.6%  
43 0.5% 99.2%  
44 1.2% 98.7%  
45 12% 98%  
46 21% 85%  
47 27% 64% Median
48 17% 38%  
49 4% 20%  
50 5% 16%  
51 3% 11%  
52 5% 8%  
53 1.5% 3%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 7% 99.4% Last Result
38 15% 93%  
39 28% 78% Median
40 11% 49%  
41 20% 38%  
42 5% 19%  
43 4% 13%  
44 2% 10%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.7% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 3% 100%  
35 4% 97%  
36 4% 93%  
37 6% 89%  
38 5% 83%  
39 8% 79%  
40 8% 71%  
41 20% 63% Median
42 18% 43%  
43 16% 25%  
44 7% 9%  
45 1.0% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.9%  
23 5% 98.9%  
24 5% 94%  
25 10% 88%  
26 6% 78%  
27 13% 72%  
28 31% 59% Median
29 15% 28%  
30 3% 12%  
31 7% 10%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8% Last Result
13 3% 97%  
14 8% 93%  
15 8% 85%  
16 54% 77% Median
17 13% 23%  
18 4% 10%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.6% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.7%  
12 8% 99.2%  
13 34% 92%  
14 24% 57% Median
15 21% 34%  
16 6% 13%  
17 1.2% 7%  
18 1.0% 6%  
19 2% 5%  
20 0.8% 2%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 0.6% 99.7%  
3 0.8% 99.2%  
4 0.7% 98%  
5 16% 98% Last Result
6 80% 81% Median
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 0.5% 99.7%  
6 8% 99.2%  
7 42% 91% Median
8 34% 49%  
9 9% 15% Last Result
10 4% 6%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 144 100% 141–148 141–150 140–151 138–152
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 128 100% 125–132 125–134 124–134 123–137
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 100 45% 98–105 97–106 97–108 95–109
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 98 19% 95–102 93–104 92–105 91–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 95 4% 91–98 90–100 88–102 86–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 95 2% 90–97 88–99 87–100 85–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 91 0.1% 87–95 86–96 84–97 83–100
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 81 0% 77–84 75–86 74–87 72–89

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.8%  
139 1.0% 99.5%  
140 3% 98%  
141 8% 96%  
142 9% 88%  
143 22% 79% Median
144 15% 57%  
145 16% 41%  
146 9% 25%  
147 4% 16%  
148 3% 12%  
149 3% 9%  
150 4% 6%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.8% 0.9%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.3% 99.8%  
123 0.8% 99.5%  
124 2% 98.7%  
125 7% 96%  
126 11% 90%  
127 22% 79% Median
128 15% 57%  
129 16% 42%  
130 11% 26%  
131 3% 16%  
132 4% 13%  
133 4% 9%  
134 3% 5%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.0%  
137 0.6% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 1.1% 99.3%  
97 3% 98%  
98 8% 95%  
99 21% 87% Median
100 21% 66%  
101 8% 45% Majority
102 13% 37%  
103 8% 23%  
104 5% 16%  
105 4% 11%  
106 3% 7%  
107 1.2% 5%  
108 2% 3%  
109 1.3% 2%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.9%  
91 2% 99.5%  
92 0.9% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 6% 93%  
96 4% 86%  
97 13% 82%  
98 24% 69% Median
99 20% 45%  
100 5% 25%  
101 5% 19% Majority
102 6% 14%  
103 2% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.9% 3%  
106 1.4% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.0%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100%  
86 0.6% 99.7%  
87 1.4% 99.1%  
88 0.7% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 6% 93%  
92 4% 87%  
93 6% 83%  
94 17% 77% Median
95 27% 60%  
96 9% 33%  
97 8% 24%  
98 7% 15%  
99 2% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.4% 4% Majority
102 2% 3%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.5% 99.9%  
86 1.0% 99.4%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 4% 95%  
90 4% 91%  
91 6% 87%  
92 6% 81%  
93 7% 75% Median
94 17% 68%  
95 22% 50%  
96 12% 28%  
97 8% 16%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.0% 4% Last Result
101 2% 2% Majority
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 2% 99.5%  
85 1.0% 97%  
86 2% 96%  
87 4% 94%  
88 7% 90%  
89 9% 82%  
90 19% 73%  
91 24% 54% Median
92 9% 31%  
93 8% 22%  
94 3% 14%  
95 5% 11%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.4%  
100 0.6% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 1.2% 99.3%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 2% 93%  
77 8% 91%  
78 5% 84%  
79 5% 79%  
80 13% 74% Median
81 16% 61%  
82 28% 45%  
83 6% 17%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 8%  
86 2% 6% Last Result
87 1.1% 4%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations