Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 5–18 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.7% 19.2–22.3% 18.8–22.7% 18.4–23.1% 17.8–23.9%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.6% 18.1–21.1% 17.7–21.6% 17.4–22.0% 16.7–22.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.5% 14.2–16.9% 13.8–17.3% 13.5–17.7% 12.9–18.4%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.3–14.6% 11.1–14.9% 10.5–15.6%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.7% 8.7–11.0% 8.4–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.2%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.1–10.3% 7.8–10.7% 7.6–10.9% 7.1–11.5%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.0–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 46 43–50 43–50 41–52 39–54
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 39–47 38–49 37–49 35–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–40 33–41 31–42 29–43
Vihreä liitto 15 25 22–28 22–28 20–30 18–31
Perussuomalaiset 38 20 15–22 15–22 14–23 13–25
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–20 14–21 13–22 12–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 7–10 6–10 6–11 4–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 4–6 2–6 2–6 1–8
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.4%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 2% 97%  
43 9% 95%  
44 9% 87%  
45 21% 78%  
46 10% 57% Median
47 19% 47%  
48 9% 28%  
49 8% 19%  
50 7% 11%  
51 1.3% 4%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.7%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.4%  
37 2% 99.0% Last Result
38 6% 97%  
39 17% 91%  
40 5% 74%  
41 13% 69%  
42 8% 56% Median
43 14% 48%  
44 13% 34%  
45 5% 21%  
46 3% 16%  
47 4% 14%  
48 4% 9%  
49 5% 5%  
50 0.7% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 1.1% 99.4%  
31 1.5% 98%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 17% 91%  
35 32% 74% Median
36 10% 42%  
37 9% 32%  
38 8% 23%  
39 5% 16%  
40 3% 11%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.4% 0.9%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.2%  
20 0.9% 98%  
21 1.5% 97%  
22 13% 96%  
23 21% 83%  
24 11% 62%  
25 27% 51% Median
26 10% 24%  
27 4% 14%  
28 7% 11%  
29 1.1% 4%  
30 1.1% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.4%  
15 8% 95%  
16 5% 87%  
17 8% 82%  
18 7% 74%  
19 12% 67%  
20 21% 55% Median
21 15% 35%  
22 15% 20%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
13 1.0% 98%  
14 4% 97%  
15 2% 94%  
16 28% 91%  
17 20% 64% Median
18 11% 43%  
19 15% 32%  
20 7% 17%  
21 7% 10%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100%  
5 0.6% 98.9%  
6 8% 98%  
7 43% 90% Median
8 20% 47%  
9 8% 27% Last Result
10 16% 19%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0.8% 99.6%  
2 6% 98.8%  
3 2% 93%  
4 9% 91%  
5 9% 82% Last Result
6 71% 73% Median
7 0.6% 1.2%  
8 0.4% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 12% 12%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 143 100% 140–148 139–149 138–150 135–152
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 123–131 122–132 120–133 118–134
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 102 68% 99–106 96–108 95–109 93–110
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 97 20% 94–101 93–103 91–105 88–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 96 6% 92–100 91–101 90–103 87–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 92 0.6% 88–96 86–96 84–98 82–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 88 0.1% 85–92 84–93 82–95 79–98
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 79 0% 75–83 73–84 71–84 69–86

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0.1% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.5% 99.7%  
136 0.7% 99.3%  
137 1.0% 98.5%  
138 2% 98%  
139 2% 95%  
140 4% 94%  
141 10% 89%  
142 17% 79%  
143 13% 62% Median
144 14% 49%  
145 8% 35%  
146 7% 27%  
147 8% 21%  
148 6% 13%  
149 2% 7%  
150 3% 5%  
151 2% 2%  
152 0.4% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.3% 99.8%  
118 0.7% 99.5%  
119 0.6% 98.9%  
120 2% 98%  
121 0.6% 96%  
122 4% 96%  
123 7% 92%  
124 8% 84%  
125 23% 77%  
126 9% 54% Median
127 16% 44%  
128 10% 28%  
129 4% 18%  
130 3% 14%  
131 4% 11%  
132 2% 7%  
133 3% 5%  
134 1.0% 1.4%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.6% 99.6%  
94 0.7% 98.9%  
95 1.2% 98%  
96 3% 97%  
97 2% 94%  
98 3% 93%  
99 13% 90%  
100 10% 77%  
101 13% 68% Median, Majority
102 22% 55%  
103 9% 33%  
104 6% 24%  
105 4% 18%  
106 4% 14%  
107 2% 10%  
108 5% 8%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.6% 1.0%  
111 0.3% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.7%  
89 1.0% 99.4%  
90 0.6% 98%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 5% 95%  
94 8% 90%  
95 7% 82%  
96 18% 75%  
97 11% 58% Median
98 7% 47%  
99 14% 39%  
100 5% 25%  
101 13% 20% Majority
102 2% 8%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.2% 4%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.7% 1.1%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.7% 99.4%  
89 1.0% 98.7%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 7% 94%  
93 3% 87%  
94 19% 84%  
95 8% 65% Median
96 11% 57%  
97 16% 46%  
98 10% 30%  
99 8% 21%  
100 6% 12%  
101 2% 6% Majority
102 1.0% 4%  
103 0.8% 3%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.5%  
83 0.7% 98.9%  
84 1.1% 98%  
85 1.0% 97%  
86 1.3% 96%  
87 2% 95%  
88 6% 93%  
89 7% 87%  
90 21% 80% Median
91 9% 59%  
92 20% 50%  
93 7% 30%  
94 7% 24%  
95 6% 17%  
96 7% 11%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.5% 1.5%  
100 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
101 0.3% 0.6% Majority
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.5% 99.4%  
81 0.7% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.2% 96%  
84 2% 95%  
85 7% 93%  
86 8% 86%  
87 23% 78%  
88 14% 55% Median
89 10% 41%  
90 14% 30%  
91 4% 16%  
92 5% 12%  
93 3% 7%  
94 1.0% 4%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.9% 1.4%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 0.7% 99.0%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 2% 93%  
75 5% 91%  
76 15% 86%  
77 10% 71% Median
78 10% 62%  
79 21% 52%  
80 9% 31%  
81 7% 23%  
82 4% 16%  
83 6% 11%  
84 4% 6%  
85 1.0% 2%  
86 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations