Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 10 December 2018–8 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.2% 20.2–22.3% 19.9–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.6% 18.6–20.7% 18.3–21.0% 18.1–21.2% 17.6–21.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 16.1% 15.2–17.1% 14.9–17.4% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.1%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.6% 12.7–14.5% 12.5–14.8% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.5%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 10.2% 9.4–11.0% 9.2–11.3% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.5% 8.8–10.3% 8.6–10.5% 8.4–10.7% 8.1–11.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–5.0% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 39–46 39–46 38–46 37–47
Suomen Keskusta 49 36 34–38 34–39 34–41 33–42
Vihreä liitto 15 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Perussuomalaiset 38 21 19–22 18–22 17–23 15–23
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 3–7
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 4 3–5 3–6 2–6 2–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 3% 98%  
45 21% 94%  
46 21% 73%  
47 19% 52% Median
48 8% 33%  
49 14% 24%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.0%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
38 4% 99.4%  
39 8% 96%  
40 21% 87%  
41 16% 67%  
42 10% 50% Median
43 16% 41%  
44 7% 25%  
45 6% 18%  
46 10% 12%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.8%  
34 19% 98.8%  
35 27% 80%  
36 20% 53% Median
37 12% 33%  
38 13% 21%  
39 4% 8%  
40 1.4% 4%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.5%  
23 4% 95%  
24 11% 91%  
25 18% 80%  
26 19% 62% Median
27 17% 43%  
28 9% 25%  
29 6% 16%  
30 7% 10%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.6% 0.6%  
33 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 2% 98%  
18 2% 96%  
19 5% 94%  
20 12% 89%  
21 52% 78% Median
22 22% 25%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.7%  
16 21% 99.0%  
17 41% 78% Median
18 14% 37%  
19 13% 22%  
20 7% 9%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.7%  
4 0.5% 99.4%  
5 13% 98.9% Last Result
6 84% 86% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 45% 97%  
4 37% 51% Median
5 7% 15%  
6 8% 8%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0% Last Result

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 142 100% 140–145 139–145 138–146 136–148
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 125 100% 122–127 120–128 120–129 118–130
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 98 27% 95–102 94–103 94–103 93–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 23% 96–103 95–103 94–103 91–105
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 95 1.1% 90–97 90–98 90–99 88–102
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 91 0% 87–93 86–95 86–95 84–97
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 87 0% 85–91 84–92 83–93 82–95
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 78 0% 75–82 74–82 74–83 72–85

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.5% 99.8%  
137 0.9% 99.3%  
138 2% 98%  
139 3% 97%  
140 14% 94%  
141 13% 80%  
142 24% 67% Median
143 20% 42%  
144 11% 22%  
145 7% 11%  
146 2% 4%  
147 1.1% 2%  
148 0.3% 0.7%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 100%  
118 0.4% 99.9%  
119 0.9% 99.5%  
120 4% 98.6%  
121 3% 95%  
122 5% 92%  
123 18% 86%  
124 12% 68%  
125 16% 57% Median
126 23% 41%  
127 10% 18%  
128 4% 8%  
129 2% 4%  
130 0.7% 1.2%  
131 0.4% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 1.5% 99.5%  
94 5% 98%  
95 7% 93%  
96 14% 85%  
97 13% 71%  
98 10% 58%  
99 9% 48% Median
100 12% 39%  
101 13% 27% Majority
102 5% 13%  
103 7% 8%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.5% 99.5%  
93 1.2% 99.0%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 96%  
96 7% 91%  
97 11% 84%  
98 19% 73%  
99 23% 54% Median
100 8% 31%  
101 4% 23% Majority
102 7% 18%  
103 10% 12%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.4%  
90 10% 99.1%  
91 7% 89%  
92 4% 82%  
93 5% 78%  
94 22% 73% Median
95 23% 51%  
96 12% 29%  
97 7% 16%  
98 5% 9%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.1% Majority
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.4%  
86 4% 99.1%  
87 9% 95%  
88 7% 86%  
89 6% 78%  
90 10% 72% Median
91 26% 63%  
92 20% 37%  
93 8% 17%  
94 4% 9%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.6% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.2%  
84 6% 97%  
85 10% 91%  
86 18% 81%  
87 25% 64%  
88 8% 39% Median
89 8% 30%  
90 6% 23%  
91 8% 17%  
92 6% 8%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.5%  
95 0.7% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.1% 99.8%  
73 0.9% 98.7%  
74 5% 98%  
75 10% 93%  
76 10% 82%  
77 15% 72%  
78 24% 57% Median
79 8% 33%  
80 5% 25%  
81 6% 20%  
82 10% 14%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.0%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations