Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 13 December 2018–11 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.9% 19.8–22.0% 19.5–22.3% 19.3–22.6% 18.8–23.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.5% 18.5–20.6% 18.2–20.9% 17.9–21.2% 17.4–21.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.6% 14.7–16.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.2–17.2% 13.7–17.6%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.9% 12.0–13.8% 11.8–14.1% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.7% 8.9–10.5% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.4% 8.7–10.3% 8.5–10.5% 8.3–10.7% 7.9–11.1%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 41 38–45 38–46 37–47 37–49
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–38 33–40 33–40 32–42
Vihreä liitto 15 24 22–28 22–28 22–28 20–29
Perussuomalaiset 38 19 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–23
Vasemmistoliitto 12 18 16–19 16–20 16–21 14–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 2–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 9% 99.0%  
44 3% 90%  
45 12% 87%  
46 15% 75%  
47 22% 60% Median
48 20% 38%  
49 14% 18%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.8% 1.2%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 3% 99.9% Last Result
38 14% 97%  
39 9% 82%  
40 7% 74%  
41 20% 66% Median
42 14% 46%  
43 9% 32%  
44 12% 23%  
45 5% 10%  
46 1.4% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.9% 0.9%  
50 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 5% 99.3%  
34 34% 94%  
35 30% 61% Median
36 7% 30%  
37 13% 24%  
38 3% 11%  
39 3% 8%  
40 3% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.3% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.7%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 16% 98%  
23 19% 82%  
24 15% 63% Median
25 18% 48%  
26 9% 30%  
27 8% 21%  
28 12% 13%  
29 0.8% 1.2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 3% 98%  
16 6% 95%  
17 11% 89%  
18 8% 78%  
19 24% 70% Median
20 19% 46%  
21 18% 28%  
22 8% 9%  
23 1.1% 1.5%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.0%  
16 16% 98%  
17 24% 82%  
18 27% 58% Median
19 22% 32%  
20 5% 10%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 26% 98%  
8 43% 72% Median
9 10% 30% Last Result
10 18% 19%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.9% 99.9%  
3 1.2% 99.0%  
4 2% 98%  
5 13% 96% Last Result
6 82% 83% Median
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 144 100% 142–148 141–148 140–149 138–151
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 124–130 123–131 122–131 120–133
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 102 69% 99–105 98–106 98–107 96–109
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 96 5% 92–99 92–100 91–102 89–104
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 97 15% 94–101 93–101 91–102 90–104
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 91 0% 88–94 87–95 86–96 85–99
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 89 0% 86–93 84–93 84–94 82–96
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 76 0% 74–80 73–82 72–83 71–84

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0.4% 99.9%  
138 0.3% 99.5%  
139 2% 99.3%  
140 1.3% 98%  
141 4% 96%  
142 10% 92%  
143 22% 82%  
144 15% 61% Median
145 11% 46%  
146 15% 35%  
147 5% 20%  
148 10% 14%  
149 2% 4%  
150 1.3% 2%  
151 1.2% 1.2%  
152 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.4% 99.8%  
121 1.4% 99.4%  
122 1.3% 98%  
123 4% 97%  
124 14% 93%  
125 13% 80%  
126 17% 66% Median
127 10% 49%  
128 18% 39%  
129 5% 21%  
130 9% 15%  
131 5% 7%  
132 1.3% 2%  
133 0.6% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.9% 99.7%  
97 1.3% 98.8%  
98 7% 98%  
99 5% 91%  
100 17% 86%  
101 8% 69% Majority
102 11% 61% Median
103 23% 50%  
104 8% 27%  
105 11% 18%  
106 4% 8%  
107 2% 4%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.5% 0.7%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 1.5% 99.4%  
91 1.2% 98%  
92 11% 97%  
93 4% 86%  
94 19% 82%  
95 9% 62% Median
96 10% 54%  
97 8% 44%  
98 19% 36%  
99 6% 16%  
100 5% 10%  
101 2% 5% Majority
102 2% 3%  
103 0.4% 1.2%  
104 0.7% 0.8%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.8% 99.9%  
91 2% 99.0%  
92 1.4% 97%  
93 5% 96%  
94 6% 91%  
95 17% 85%  
96 9% 68%  
97 10% 59% Median
98 9% 49%  
99 14% 40%  
100 11% 26%  
101 11% 15% Majority
102 1.5% 4%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.7% 99.7%  
86 4% 99.1%  
87 3% 95%  
88 11% 92%  
89 14% 81%  
90 10% 66% Median
91 22% 56%  
92 14% 34%  
93 7% 21%  
94 4% 13%  
95 5% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.5% 0.6%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.9%  
83 2% 99.5%  
84 3% 98%  
85 2% 95%  
86 10% 93%  
87 12% 83%  
88 19% 71%  
89 12% 53% Median
90 9% 40%  
91 6% 32%  
92 11% 26%  
93 11% 15%  
94 2% 4%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 4% 99.4%  
73 2% 95%  
74 5% 93%  
75 28% 87%  
76 9% 59% Median
77 12% 50%  
78 14% 37%  
79 9% 24%  
80 5% 14%  
81 4% 9%  
82 3% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations