Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 14–28 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.7–23.4% 18.0–24.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 19.7% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.8% 17.5–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.4% 13.2–15.8% 12.8–16.2% 12.5–16.6% 11.9–17.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.5–14.8% 11.2–15.1% 10.6–15.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.1% 8.5–11.4% 8.3–11.7% 7.8–12.3%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 6.9–11.3%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.6% 3.0–6.1%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.2–5.5% 2.9–6.0%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 43–50 43–52 42–53 40–55
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 42 38–48 38–49 37–49 36–50
Suomen Keskusta 49 34 30–36 29–37 28–38 26–40
Vihreä liitto 15 25 22–29 21–29 20–30 18–31
Perussuomalaiset 38 20 16–22 15–23 14–24 14–25
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 14–20 14–20 13–21 12–22
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 6–7 5–7 3–8 2–9
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 6–11 6–11 6–11 5–11
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 98.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 6% 96%  
44 6% 90%  
45 10% 84%  
46 17% 74%  
47 23% 57% Median
48 17% 34%  
49 3% 17%  
50 6% 14%  
51 2% 8%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 4% 99.1% Last Result
38 6% 96%  
39 10% 89%  
40 7% 79%  
41 11% 72%  
42 14% 61% Median
43 9% 47%  
44 12% 38%  
45 4% 26%  
46 3% 22%  
47 6% 19%  
48 5% 13%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.6% 99.6%  
27 0.9% 99.0%  
28 2% 98%  
29 5% 97%  
30 5% 91%  
31 7% 87%  
32 10% 80%  
33 10% 70%  
34 34% 60% Median
35 16% 26%  
36 5% 11%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.1% 3%  
39 0.6% 2%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.5% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.4%  
20 2% 98.5%  
21 2% 97%  
22 10% 95%  
23 16% 84%  
24 9% 68%  
25 17% 59% Median
26 9% 42%  
27 8% 33%  
28 14% 25%  
29 6% 11%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.8%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 4% 97%  
16 3% 93%  
17 6% 90%  
18 15% 83%  
19 14% 68%  
20 11% 54% Median
21 19% 43%  
22 14% 24%  
23 7% 10%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.7% Last Result
13 2% 98%  
14 11% 95%  
15 7% 84%  
16 23% 78%  
17 18% 55% Median
18 15% 37%  
19 9% 22%  
20 9% 14%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 1.2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 2% 99.8%  
3 0.9% 98%  
4 2% 97%  
5 2% 95% Last Result
6 83% 93% Median
7 7% 10%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 0.5% 99.5%  
6 10% 99.0%  
7 29% 89%  
8 27% 60% Median
9 7% 33% Last Result
10 16% 26%  
11 10% 10%  
12 0.2% 0.5%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 27% 27%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 145 100% 142–150 141–151 140–152 138–154
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 128 100% 125–133 123–135 122–136 120–137
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 104 84% 99–109 98–110 96–111 94–112
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 97 16% 93–102 91–104 90–106 88–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 96 10% 91–100 89–103 87–103 86–105
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 90 0.2% 85–95 84–96 83–97 80–99
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 89 0.2% 84–94 83–96 82–97 80–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 76 0% 71–82 70–82 69–83 67–86

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.3% 99.8%  
138 0.8% 99.5%  
139 0.9% 98.7%  
140 3% 98%  
141 3% 95%  
142 5% 92%  
143 7% 87%  
144 18% 80%  
145 15% 62% Median
146 10% 48%  
147 7% 38%  
148 10% 31%  
149 9% 20%  
150 4% 12%  
151 5% 8%  
152 2% 3%  
153 0.4% 1.2%  
154 0.4% 0.8%  
155 0.3% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.6% 99.8%  
121 1.0% 99.2%  
122 1.3% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 3% 95%  
125 3% 92%  
126 8% 89%  
127 12% 80%  
128 20% 68% Median
129 11% 48%  
130 10% 38%  
131 9% 27%  
132 4% 19%  
133 5% 15%  
134 3% 10%  
135 3% 6%  
136 2% 3%  
137 0.5% 0.8%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.7% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.2%  
96 2% 98.7%  
97 1.2% 97%  
98 2% 95%  
99 3% 93%  
100 5% 90%  
101 11% 84% Majority
102 14% 73%  
103 9% 59% Median
104 12% 51%  
105 14% 38%  
106 3% 24%  
107 3% 21%  
108 4% 18%  
109 8% 14%  
110 4% 6%  
111 1.5% 3%  
112 0.7% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.7% 99.7%  
89 0.7% 99.0%  
90 3% 98%  
91 3% 95%  
92 2% 92%  
93 6% 90%  
94 10% 85%  
95 12% 74%  
96 7% 63%  
97 10% 56% Median
98 8% 46%  
99 12% 37%  
100 9% 25%  
101 5% 16% Majority
102 4% 11%  
103 2% 7%  
104 1.2% 6%  
105 2% 4%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.4% 99.7%  
87 3% 99.3%  
88 1.2% 97%  
89 1.5% 95%  
90 3% 94%  
91 3% 91%  
92 7% 88%  
93 13% 81%  
94 8% 68%  
95 9% 60%  
96 9% 52% Median
97 7% 42%  
98 12% 35%  
99 9% 23%  
100 4% 14%  
101 2% 10% Majority
102 2% 7%  
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.7%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 1.2% 98.9%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 95%  
85 3% 92%  
86 3% 88%  
87 8% 85%  
88 7% 77%  
89 9% 70%  
90 11% 61% Median
91 16% 50%  
92 8% 34%  
93 10% 26%  
94 4% 16%  
95 5% 12%  
96 4% 7%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
101 0.1% 0.2% Majority
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 1.0% 99.3%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 4% 93%  
85 4% 89%  
86 7% 86%  
87 17% 78%  
88 11% 61%  
89 8% 50% Median
90 13% 43%  
91 8% 29%  
92 7% 22%  
93 4% 14%  
94 3% 10%  
95 2% 7%  
96 0.9% 5%  
97 2% 4%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2% Majority
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 4% 94%  
72 4% 90%  
73 8% 86%  
74 9% 78%  
75 12% 69%  
76 13% 57% Median
77 7% 44%  
78 9% 37%  
79 6% 28%  
80 9% 22%  
81 3% 13%  
82 6% 10%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.0%  
86 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations