Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 14 January–5 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.1% 18.9–21.4% 18.6–21.7% 18.3–22.1% 17.8–22.7%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 17.3% 16.2–18.5% 15.9–18.9% 15.7–19.2% 15.1–19.8%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 15.6% 14.6–16.8% 14.3–17.1% 14.0–17.4% 13.5–17.9%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.6% 13.6–15.7% 13.3–16.0% 13.0–16.3% 12.6–16.9%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.1–14.1%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.6% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.8% 7.4–10.0% 7.0–10.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.6% 3.1–4.3% 3.0–4.4% 2.9–4.6% 2.6–4.9%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 43–48 41–49 40–49 39–51
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 37 34–39 32–39 31–40 31–42
Suomen Keskusta 49 35 34–37 34–39 33–40 31–42
Vihreä liitto 15 29 27–32 26–32 24–32 23–33
Perussuomalaiset 38 24 22–27 22–28 22–29 21–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–10
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 2–6 2–6 1–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.6%  
40 2% 98.8%  
41 2% 97%  
42 5% 95%  
43 11% 90%  
44 13% 80%  
45 23% 66% Median
46 18% 43%  
47 9% 26%  
48 9% 16%  
49 6% 7%  
50 0.7% 1.4%  
51 0.6% 0.8%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 3% 97%  
33 3% 94%  
34 8% 91%  
35 10% 83%  
36 14% 73%  
37 27% 59% Last Result, Median
38 21% 33%  
39 7% 12%  
40 2% 5%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.7%  
31 0.3% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.3%  
33 2% 98%  
34 40% 96%  
35 30% 56% Median
36 13% 26%  
37 4% 13%  
38 3% 8%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.4% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.6%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 2% 97%  
26 5% 96%  
27 7% 91%  
28 25% 84%  
29 9% 59% Median
30 9% 50%  
31 18% 40%  
32 21% 22%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 11% 99.5%  
23 17% 89%  
24 27% 72% Median
25 18% 45%  
26 13% 27%  
27 9% 14%  
28 2% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.4%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.6% Last Result
13 1.2% 98%  
14 9% 97%  
15 11% 87%  
16 52% 77% Median
17 14% 25%  
18 7% 11%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 0.3% 99.7%  
6 13% 99.4%  
7 44% 87% Median
8 30% 43%  
9 6% 13% Last Result
10 6% 7%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 2% 99.1%  
2 13% 97%  
3 7% 85%  
4 7% 77%  
5 19% 70% Last Result
6 51% 51% Median
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 140 100% 137–142 135–142 134–142 132–144
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 124 100% 120–127 119–127 118–127 116–129
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 99 21% 94–101 93–102 92–103 90–104
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 96 7% 93–100 92–101 91–102 90–104
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 94 0.6% 91–97 90–98 89–99 86–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 91 0% 86–94 85–95 85–96 83–97
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 84 0% 80–87 79–89 79–90 77–92
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 71 0% 69–75 67–76 66–77 65–79

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 100%  
131 0.2% 99.9%  
132 0.6% 99.7%  
133 0.6% 99.1%  
134 2% 98.5%  
135 2% 97%  
136 4% 95%  
137 11% 91%  
138 12% 80%  
139 13% 68%  
140 15% 54% Median
141 28% 39%  
142 9% 11%  
143 2% 2%  
144 0.4% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.4%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.5% 99.6%  
117 0.7% 99.2%  
118 2% 98%  
119 4% 97%  
120 5% 93%  
121 7% 88%  
122 15% 80%  
123 14% 65%  
124 16% 52% Median
125 19% 36%  
126 6% 16%  
127 8% 10%  
128 2% 2%  
129 0.5% 0.8%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 1.2% 99.3%  
92 1.1% 98%  
93 7% 97%  
94 7% 90%  
95 4% 83%  
96 9% 79%  
97 9% 70% Median
98 8% 61%  
99 13% 52%  
100 18% 40%  
101 12% 21% Majority
102 5% 10%  
103 2% 4%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 1.1% 99.5%  
91 3% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 13% 92%  
94 12% 79%  
95 12% 67%  
96 15% 55% Median
97 8% 40%  
98 9% 32%  
99 6% 24%  
100 11% 17%  
101 2% 7% Majority
102 3% 5%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.7% 1.0%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 0.4% 99.4%  
88 0.6% 99.0%  
89 2% 98%  
90 5% 97%  
91 11% 92%  
92 7% 80%  
93 15% 73%  
94 18% 59%  
95 12% 40% Median
96 11% 28%  
97 7% 17%  
98 5% 9%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.8% 1.4%  
101 0.4% 0.6% Majority
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 1.4% 99.1%  
85 4% 98%  
86 8% 94%  
87 6% 86%  
88 6% 80%  
89 8% 74%  
90 10% 66% Median
91 9% 56%  
92 15% 47%  
93 14% 32%  
94 12% 18%  
95 4% 6%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.0%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.4% 99.1%  
79 3% 98%  
80 7% 95%  
81 7% 88%  
82 13% 81%  
83 18% 68%  
84 12% 51%  
85 9% 38% Median
86 11% 29%  
87 9% 18%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 2% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 12% 90%  
70 8% 78%  
71 20% 70%  
72 16% 50% Median
73 14% 34%  
74 7% 20%  
75 6% 12%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations