Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 14 January–14 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 16.5% | 20.8% | 19.6–22.1% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.9–22.8% | 18.4–23.4% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 18.2% | 18.6% | 17.4–19.9% | 17.1–20.2% | 16.8–20.5% | 16.3–21.2% |
| Suomen Keskusta | 21.1% | 14.7% | 13.6–15.9% | 13.4–16.2% | 13.1–16.5% | 12.6–17.1% |
| Vihreä liitto | 8.5% | 13.6% | 12.6–14.7% | 12.3–15.0% | 12.0–15.3% | 11.6–15.9% |
| Perussuomalaiset | 17.6% | 11.4% | 10.5–12.5% | 10.2–12.8% | 10.0–13.0% | 9.5–13.5% |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.8–9.6% | 7.6–9.9% | 7.4–10.1% | 7.1–10.6% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.7–5.0% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.4% | 3.2–5.7% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 34 | 46 | 44–48 | 43–50 | 43–52 | 41–53 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus | 37 | 38 | 37–42 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 34–47 |
| Suomen Keskusta | 49 | 34 | 32–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–39 |
| Vihreä liitto | 15 | 27 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 22–31 | 22–32 |
| Perussuomalaiset | 38 | 23 | 22–25 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 19–29 |
| Vasemmistoliitto | 12 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 12–21 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 9 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–11 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| Sininen tulevaisuus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 6% | 98% | |
| 44 | 8% | 92% | |
| 45 | 24% | 83% | |
| 46 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 47 | 15% | 33% | |
| 48 | 9% | 18% | |
| 49 | 3% | 9% | |
| 50 | 2% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 52 | 2% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 13% | 96% | Last Result |
| 38 | 35% | 83% | Median |
| 39 | 19% | 48% | |
| 40 | 13% | 30% | |
| 41 | 4% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 13% | |
| 43 | 3% | 9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 6% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 4% | 97% | |
| 31 | 3% | 94% | |
| 32 | 4% | 91% | |
| 33 | 9% | 87% | |
| 34 | 54% | 77% | Median |
| 35 | 13% | 23% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 93% | |
| 24 | 13% | 90% | |
| 25 | 5% | 77% | |
| 26 | 8% | 71% | |
| 27 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 28 | 26% | 44% | |
| 29 | 10% | 18% | |
| 30 | 4% | 8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 21 | 7% | 98% | |
| 22 | 21% | 91% | |
| 23 | 35% | 70% | Median |
| 24 | 22% | 36% | |
| 25 | 5% | 14% | |
| 26 | 3% | 9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 13 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 11% | 97% | |
| 15 | 9% | 86% | |
| 16 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 17 | 16% | 31% | |
| 18 | 11% | 15% | |
| 19 | 2% | 4% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 24% | 96% | |
| 8 | 34% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 38% | Last Result |
| 10 | 20% | 23% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 2% | 97% | |
| 4 | 3% | 95% | |
| 5 | 11% | 93% | Last Result |
| 6 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 112 | 142 | 100% | 139–144 | 138–146 | 137–147 | 136–149 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 126 | 100% | 123–129 | 122–130 | 121–131 | 119–133 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 85 | 99 | 30% | 96–103 | 95–104 | 94–106 | 93–107 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland | 70 | 97 | 7% | 94–100 | 93–101 | 92–103 | 91–105 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset | 124 | 96 | 5% | 93–99 | 92–101 | 91–102 | 89–103 |
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto | 61 | 89 | 0% | 86–92 | 85–93 | 84–95 | 82–96 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit | 100 | 87 | 0% | 84–90 | 82–91 | 81–92 | 79–94 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus | 86 | 73 | 0% | 70–76 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 66–80 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 138 | 3% | 97% | |
| 139 | 5% | 94% | |
| 140 | 7% | 89% | |
| 141 | 26% | 82% | Median |
| 142 | 21% | 56% | |
| 143 | 18% | 35% | |
| 144 | 8% | 17% | |
| 145 | 3% | 9% | |
| 146 | 3% | 6% | |
| 147 | 2% | 3% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 122 | 4% | 97% | |
| 123 | 9% | 94% | |
| 124 | 10% | 85% | |
| 125 | 22% | 75% | Median |
| 126 | 22% | 53% | |
| 127 | 11% | 31% | |
| 128 | 10% | 21% | |
| 129 | 4% | 11% | |
| 130 | 4% | 7% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 94 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 95 | 3% | 95% | |
| 96 | 12% | 93% | |
| 97 | 14% | 81% | |
| 98 | 12% | 66% | Median |
| 99 | 17% | 54% | |
| 100 | 6% | 37% | |
| 101 | 6% | 30% | Majority |
| 102 | 11% | 25% | |
| 103 | 7% | 14% | |
| 104 | 3% | 7% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 106 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 91 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 93 | 3% | 96% | |
| 94 | 6% | 92% | |
| 95 | 9% | 87% | |
| 96 | 11% | 78% | |
| 97 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 98 | 21% | 44% | |
| 99 | 7% | 23% | |
| 100 | 9% | 17% | |
| 101 | 3% | 7% | Majority |
| 102 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 103 | 2% | 3% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 90 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 2% | 96% | |
| 93 | 8% | 94% | |
| 94 | 6% | 86% | |
| 95 | 17% | 80% | Median |
| 96 | 26% | 63% | |
| 97 | 12% | 37% | |
| 98 | 8% | 25% | |
| 99 | 8% | 17% | |
| 100 | 5% | 10% | |
| 101 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 102 | 2% | 3% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 104 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% | |
| 116 | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 85 | 4% | 96% | |
| 86 | 9% | 92% | |
| 87 | 17% | 83% | |
| 88 | 10% | 66% | |
| 89 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 90 | 15% | 39% | |
| 91 | 9% | 24% | |
| 92 | 8% | 15% | |
| 93 | 3% | 8% | |
| 94 | 2% | 4% | |
| 95 | 2% | 3% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 81 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 82 | 2% | 97% | |
| 83 | 4% | 95% | |
| 84 | 10% | 91% | |
| 85 | 10% | 81% | |
| 86 | 10% | 71% | Median |
| 87 | 19% | 61% | |
| 88 | 14% | 42% | |
| 89 | 17% | 28% | |
| 90 | 3% | 11% | |
| 91 | 3% | 7% | |
| 92 | 3% | 5% | |
| 93 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 94 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 95 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 2% | 96% | |
| 70 | 8% | 93% | |
| 71 | 8% | 85% | |
| 72 | 20% | 77% | Median |
| 73 | 24% | 57% | |
| 74 | 14% | 33% | |
| 75 | 6% | 19% | |
| 76 | 4% | 13% | |
| 77 | 4% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 14 January–14 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1693
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.25%