Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 6 February–5 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.8–23.0% 19.5–23.3% 18.9–23.9%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 16.2% 15.1–17.4% 14.8–17.7% 14.6–18.0% 14.1–18.6%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.1% 13.1–15.2% 12.8–15.5% 12.6–15.8% 12.1–16.4%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.7% 12.7–14.8% 12.4–15.1% 12.2–15.4% 11.7–15.9%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 13.3% 12.3–14.4% 12.0–14.7% 11.8–14.9% 11.3–15.5%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.6% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.2%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 47 45–50 44–52 43–52 41–53
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 33 31–37 30–38 30–38 28–39
Suomen Keskusta 49 33 30–35 29–35 29–35 26–36
Vihreä liitto 15 26 23–29 23–30 22–31 22–32
Perussuomalaiset 38 29 25–31 24–32 24–33 23–34
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 15–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–13
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 1–6 1–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 9% 91%  
46 17% 82%  
47 17% 65% Median
48 17% 48%  
49 11% 31%  
50 11% 20%  
51 3% 9%  
52 5% 7%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 1.2% 99.0%  
30 6% 98%  
31 18% 92%  
32 13% 74%  
33 14% 61% Median
34 10% 47%  
35 14% 37%  
36 6% 23%  
37 9% 17% Last Result
38 8% 8%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.4%  
28 1.2% 98.9%  
29 6% 98%  
30 9% 91%  
31 10% 83%  
32 13% 72%  
33 15% 60% Median
34 34% 45%  
35 10% 11%  
36 0.8% 1.2%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 9% 97%  
24 6% 89%  
25 15% 83%  
26 22% 68% Median
27 15% 46%  
28 14% 30%  
29 8% 16%  
30 4% 8%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.9%  
24 6% 98%  
25 12% 93%  
26 10% 81%  
27 6% 71%  
28 10% 65%  
29 15% 55% Median
30 19% 40%  
31 14% 22%  
32 3% 8%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.4% 100% Last Result
13 2% 98.6%  
14 4% 97%  
15 4% 93%  
16 38% 88%  
17 27% 50% Median
18 13% 23%  
19 6% 11%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.2% 1.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 6% 99.7%  
8 28% 94%  
9 20% 66% Last Result, Median
10 33% 46%  
11 11% 13%  
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 4% 98%  
2 14% 95%  
3 6% 80%  
4 3% 74%  
5 29% 71% Last Result, Median
6 42% 42%  
7 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 137 100% 134–142 134–143 133–144 132–146
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 121 100% 118–125 117–127 116–128 114–129
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 99 40% 96–105 94–105 94–106 92–109
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 94 3% 92–99 90–100 89–101 88–103
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 95 2% 90–99 88–100 87–100 86–102
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 90 0.2% 87–95 86–97 85–97 83–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 80 0% 76–84 75–86 74–86 72–87
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 66 0% 62–70 62–71 60–72 59–73

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0.2% 100%  
132 0.5% 99.8%  
133 2% 99.3%  
134 9% 97%  
135 10% 89%  
136 16% 79%  
137 15% 63% Median
138 10% 49%  
139 8% 38%  
140 8% 30%  
141 9% 23%  
142 6% 14%  
143 3% 8%  
144 2% 4%  
145 1.5% 2%  
146 0.5% 0.9%  
147 0.2% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 100%  
114 0.7% 99.8%  
115 0.5% 99.1%  
116 2% 98.7%  
117 3% 97%  
118 12% 94%  
119 16% 82%  
120 9% 66% Median
121 17% 57%  
122 5% 40%  
123 10% 34%  
124 7% 25%  
125 9% 18%  
126 3% 8%  
127 2% 6%  
128 2% 4%  
129 1.4% 2%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.7%  
93 1.4% 99.1%  
94 3% 98%  
95 5% 95%  
96 5% 90%  
97 7% 86%  
98 18% 79%  
99 15% 61% Median
100 7% 46%  
101 11% 40% Majority
102 6% 28%  
103 6% 22%  
104 3% 16%  
105 8% 12%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.2% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.1%  
109 0.4% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.9%  
88 0.7% 99.5%  
89 2% 98.8%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 15% 93%  
93 12% 78%  
94 19% 66% Median
95 8% 47%  
96 10% 39%  
97 7% 29%  
98 10% 22%  
99 6% 12%  
100 3% 6%  
101 2% 3% Majority
102 0.3% 1.0%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 2% 99.3%  
88 3% 97%  
89 3% 94%  
90 3% 91%  
91 4% 89%  
92 9% 85%  
93 13% 77%  
94 9% 63%  
95 13% 54% Median
96 12% 40%  
97 9% 28%  
98 9% 19%  
99 5% 11%  
100 3% 5%  
101 2% 2% Majority
102 0.5% 0.8%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 0.9% 99.1%  
85 3% 98%  
86 3% 95%  
87 6% 92%  
88 12% 86%  
89 16% 74%  
90 13% 59% Median
91 11% 45%  
92 9% 34%  
93 5% 26%  
94 6% 20%  
95 5% 14%  
96 4% 9%  
97 4% 5%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 2% 98.8%  
75 2% 96%  
76 10% 94%  
77 5% 84%  
78 8% 79%  
79 14% 72%  
80 14% 57% Median
81 17% 43%  
82 9% 26%  
83 5% 17%  
84 3% 13%  
85 4% 10%  
86 4% 5%  
87 0.9% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 10% 96%  
63 5% 85%  
64 6% 80%  
65 14% 74%  
66 18% 60% Median
67 8% 42%  
68 10% 34%  
69 11% 25%  
70 5% 14%  
71 4% 9%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.6% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations