Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 18 February–15 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue |
16.5% |
21.0% |
19.7–22.3% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.1–23.0% |
18.5–23.7% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus |
18.2% |
18.1% |
16.9–19.4% |
16.6–19.7% |
16.3–20.0% |
15.8–20.7% |
Suomen Keskusta |
21.1% |
14.3% |
13.3–15.5% |
13.0–15.8% |
12.7–16.1% |
12.2–16.7% |
Vihreä liitto |
8.5% |
14.0% |
13.0–15.2% |
12.7–15.5% |
12.4–15.8% |
11.9–16.4% |
Perussuomalaiset |
17.6% |
11.1% |
10.2–12.1% |
9.9–12.4% |
9.7–12.7% |
9.2–13.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto |
7.1% |
8.9% |
8.0–9.8% |
7.8–10.1% |
7.6–10.3% |
7.2–10.8% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland |
4.9% |
4.4% |
3.8–5.1% |
3.6–5.3% |
3.5–5.5% |
3.2–5.8% |
Kristillisdemokraatit |
3.5% |
4.2% |
3.6–4.9% |
3.5–5.1% |
3.3–5.3% |
3.1–5.6% |
Sininen tulevaisuus |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
43 |
6% |
98.7% |
|
44 |
6% |
93% |
|
45 |
20% |
87% |
|
46 |
28% |
67% |
Median |
47 |
13% |
38% |
|
48 |
10% |
26% |
|
49 |
4% |
16% |
|
50 |
4% |
12% |
|
51 |
4% |
8% |
|
52 |
3% |
4% |
|
53 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
34 |
2% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
97% |
|
36 |
5% |
94% |
|
37 |
22% |
89% |
Last Result |
38 |
34% |
67% |
Median |
39 |
15% |
33% |
|
40 |
8% |
19% |
|
41 |
4% |
10% |
|
42 |
4% |
6% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
45 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
28 |
4% |
98.5% |
|
29 |
4% |
95% |
|
30 |
5% |
91% |
|
31 |
3% |
86% |
|
32 |
7% |
83% |
|
33 |
5% |
76% |
|
34 |
59% |
71% |
Median |
35 |
8% |
12% |
|
36 |
3% |
4% |
|
37 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
97% |
|
24 |
4% |
96% |
|
25 |
4% |
91% |
|
26 |
4% |
88% |
|
27 |
28% |
84% |
|
28 |
28% |
56% |
Median |
29 |
14% |
29% |
|
30 |
6% |
14% |
|
31 |
4% |
8% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
|
33 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
20 |
2% |
97% |
|
21 |
14% |
95% |
|
22 |
21% |
81% |
|
23 |
29% |
60% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
31% |
|
25 |
4% |
10% |
|
26 |
4% |
6% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
13 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
9% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
9% |
91% |
|
16 |
38% |
81% |
Median |
17 |
28% |
44% |
|
18 |
6% |
16% |
|
19 |
6% |
10% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
20% |
97% |
|
8 |
42% |
77% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
35% |
Last Result |
10 |
20% |
23% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
4 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
5 |
4% |
96% |
Last Result |
6 |
89% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sininen tulevaisuus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit |
112 |
142 |
100% |
141–147 |
139–148 |
139–149 |
137–150 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit |
100 |
126 |
100% |
123–131 |
122–131 |
122–132 |
120–134 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit |
85 |
99 |
25% |
96–103 |
95–104 |
94–105 |
92–107 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland |
70 |
98 |
26% |
96–103 |
95–105 |
94–105 |
92–107 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset |
124 |
95 |
0.7% |
90–97 |
89–98 |
88–99 |
86–101 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto |
61 |
90 |
0% |
87–95 |
87–96 |
86–97 |
84–99 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit |
100 |
86 |
0% |
81–89 |
80–90 |
79–90 |
78–92 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus |
86 |
72 |
0% |
67–74 |
66–76 |
65–76 |
63–79 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
112 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
137 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
138 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
139 |
4% |
98% |
|
140 |
4% |
94% |
|
141 |
19% |
90% |
|
142 |
23% |
72% |
Median |
143 |
15% |
49% |
|
144 |
12% |
34% |
|
145 |
5% |
22% |
|
146 |
5% |
17% |
|
147 |
5% |
12% |
|
148 |
5% |
7% |
|
149 |
2% |
3% |
|
150 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
100 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
101 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
100% |
|
109 |
0% |
100% |
|
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
120 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
1.2% |
99.4% |
|
122 |
4% |
98% |
|
123 |
5% |
94% |
|
124 |
7% |
89% |
|
125 |
19% |
82% |
|
126 |
24% |
63% |
Median |
127 |
7% |
39% |
|
128 |
8% |
31% |
|
129 |
7% |
23% |
|
130 |
6% |
16% |
|
131 |
6% |
11% |
|
132 |
3% |
5% |
|
133 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
135 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
136 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
93 |
1.3% |
99.5% |
|
94 |
2% |
98% |
|
95 |
4% |
96% |
|
96 |
11% |
92% |
|
97 |
19% |
82% |
|
98 |
9% |
62% |
Median |
99 |
17% |
53% |
|
100 |
11% |
36% |
|
101 |
6% |
25% |
Majority |
102 |
8% |
19% |
|
103 |
3% |
11% |
|
104 |
4% |
7% |
|
105 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
106 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
107 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
|
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
92 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
93 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
94 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
95 |
4% |
97% |
|
96 |
10% |
92% |
|
97 |
10% |
83% |
|
98 |
27% |
72% |
Median |
99 |
12% |
45% |
|
100 |
8% |
33% |
|
101 |
7% |
26% |
Majority |
102 |
3% |
19% |
|
103 |
7% |
16% |
|
104 |
3% |
8% |
|
105 |
3% |
5% |
|
106 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
107 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
84 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
86 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
87 |
0.9% |
99.3% |
|
88 |
3% |
98% |
|
89 |
3% |
95% |
|
90 |
7% |
92% |
|
91 |
3% |
85% |
|
92 |
6% |
82% |
|
93 |
7% |
76% |
|
94 |
11% |
69% |
|
95 |
27% |
58% |
Median |
96 |
14% |
31% |
|
97 |
9% |
17% |
|
98 |
5% |
8% |
|
99 |
2% |
3% |
|
100 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
101 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
Majority |
102 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
85 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
86 |
3% |
98% |
|
87 |
11% |
95% |
|
88 |
9% |
84% |
|
89 |
9% |
75% |
|
90 |
19% |
67% |
Median |
91 |
18% |
47% |
|
92 |
5% |
30% |
|
93 |
7% |
24% |
|
94 |
5% |
17% |
|
95 |
3% |
12% |
|
96 |
4% |
8% |
|
97 |
3% |
5% |
|
98 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
99 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
78 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
79 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
80 |
3% |
96% |
|
81 |
3% |
92% |
|
82 |
4% |
89% |
|
83 |
5% |
85% |
|
84 |
10% |
80% |
|
85 |
18% |
70% |
|
86 |
10% |
52% |
Median |
87 |
16% |
42% |
|
88 |
12% |
26% |
|
89 |
9% |
14% |
|
90 |
3% |
5% |
|
91 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
92 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
99.3% |
|
65 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
66 |
3% |
96% |
|
67 |
3% |
93% |
|
68 |
6% |
90% |
|
69 |
4% |
83% |
|
70 |
6% |
79% |
|
71 |
17% |
73% |
|
72 |
25% |
56% |
Median |
73 |
15% |
32% |
|
74 |
9% |
17% |
|
75 |
2% |
8% |
|
76 |
4% |
6% |
|
77 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 18 February–15 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1668
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.83%