Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 18 February–15 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 21.0% 19.7–22.3% 19.4–22.7% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.7%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 18.1% 16.9–19.4% 16.6–19.7% 16.3–20.0% 15.8–20.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.3% 13.3–15.5% 13.0–15.8% 12.7–16.1% 12.2–16.7%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.2% 12.7–15.5% 12.4–15.8% 11.9–16.4%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 11.1% 10.2–12.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.7–12.7% 9.2–13.2%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.9% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.3% 7.2–10.8%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.4% 3.8–5.1% 3.6–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.2% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 46 44–50 43–51 43–52 42–53
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 38 36–41 35–42 34–42 32–45
Suomen Keskusta 49 34 30–35 28–35 28–36 26–38
Vihreä liitto 15 28 25–30 24–31 22–32 22–33
Perussuomalaiset 38 23 21–25 21–26 19–26 17–28
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 6 5–6 3–6 2–7
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.7%  
43 6% 98.7%  
44 6% 93%  
45 20% 87%  
46 28% 67% Median
47 13% 38%  
48 10% 26%  
49 4% 16%  
50 4% 12%  
51 4% 8%  
52 3% 4%  
53 1.0% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.5%  
34 2% 98%  
35 2% 97%  
36 5% 94%  
37 22% 89% Last Result
38 34% 67% Median
39 15% 33%  
40 8% 19%  
41 4% 10%  
42 4% 6%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.2%  
28 4% 98.5%  
29 4% 95%  
30 5% 91%  
31 3% 86%  
32 7% 83%  
33 5% 76%  
34 59% 71% Median
35 8% 12%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.9% 1.4%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 3% 100%  
23 2% 97%  
24 4% 96%  
25 4% 91%  
26 4% 88%  
27 28% 84%  
28 28% 56% Median
29 14% 29%  
30 6% 14%  
31 4% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 0.7%  
34 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 0.5% 99.4%  
19 2% 98.9%  
20 2% 97%  
21 14% 95%  
22 21% 81%  
23 29% 60% Median
24 21% 31%  
25 4% 10%  
26 4% 6%  
27 0.8% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.8%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.4% 99.6%  
14 9% 99.2%  
15 9% 91%  
16 38% 81% Median
17 28% 44%  
18 6% 16%  
19 6% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 20% 97%  
8 42% 77% Median
9 12% 35% Last Result
10 20% 23%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 1.3% 99.8%  
3 1.4% 98%  
4 1.3% 97%  
5 4% 96% Last Result
6 89% 91% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 142 100% 141–147 139–148 139–149 137–150
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 126 100% 123–131 122–131 122–132 120–134
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 99 25% 96–103 95–104 94–105 92–107
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 98 26% 96–103 95–105 94–105 92–107
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 95 0.7% 90–97 89–98 88–99 86–101
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 90 0% 87–95 87–96 86–97 84–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 86 0% 81–89 80–90 79–90 78–92
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 72 0% 67–74 66–76 65–76 63–79

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0.1% 100%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.5% 99.8%  
138 0.9% 99.3%  
139 4% 98%  
140 4% 94%  
141 19% 90%  
142 23% 72% Median
143 15% 49%  
144 12% 34%  
145 5% 22%  
146 5% 17%  
147 5% 12%  
148 5% 7%  
149 2% 3%  
150 0.8% 1.1%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.2% 0.2%  
153 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.5% 99.9%  
121 1.2% 99.4%  
122 4% 98%  
123 5% 94%  
124 7% 89%  
125 19% 82%  
126 24% 63% Median
127 7% 39%  
128 8% 31%  
129 7% 23%  
130 6% 16%  
131 6% 11%  
132 3% 5%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.7% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.4%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.4% 99.9%  
93 1.3% 99.5%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 96%  
96 11% 92%  
97 19% 82%  
98 9% 62% Median
99 17% 53%  
100 11% 36%  
101 6% 25% Majority
102 8% 19%  
103 3% 11%  
104 4% 7%  
105 1.2% 3%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.0%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.5% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.4%  
94 2% 98.8%  
95 4% 97%  
96 10% 92%  
97 10% 83%  
98 27% 72% Median
99 12% 45%  
100 8% 33%  
101 7% 26% Majority
102 3% 19%  
103 7% 16%  
104 3% 8%  
105 3% 5%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.5% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.2% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.8%  
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 0.9% 99.3%  
88 3% 98%  
89 3% 95%  
90 7% 92%  
91 3% 85%  
92 6% 82%  
93 7% 76%  
94 11% 69%  
95 27% 58% Median
96 14% 31%  
97 9% 17%  
98 5% 8%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.6% 1.3%  
101 0.5% 0.7% Majority
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 1.4% 99.5%  
86 3% 98%  
87 11% 95%  
88 9% 84%  
89 9% 75%  
90 19% 67% Median
91 18% 47%  
92 5% 30%  
93 7% 24%  
94 5% 17%  
95 3% 12%  
96 4% 8%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.8% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 3% 98.9%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 92%  
82 4% 89%  
83 5% 85%  
84 10% 80%  
85 18% 70%  
86 10% 52% Median
87 16% 42%  
88 12% 26%  
89 9% 14%  
90 3% 5%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.5% 99.3%  
65 3% 98.9%  
66 3% 96%  
67 3% 93%  
68 6% 90%  
69 4% 83%  
70 6% 79%  
71 17% 73%  
72 25% 56% Median
73 15% 32%  
74 9% 17%  
75 2% 8%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations