Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 6–26 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 20.1% 18.7–21.6% 18.2–22.0% 17.9–22.4% 17.3–23.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 15.8% 14.5–17.2% 14.2–17.6% 13.9–18.0% 13.3–18.7%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 15.1% 13.8–16.5% 13.5–16.9% 13.2–17.2% 12.6–17.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.4% 13.2–15.8% 12.8–16.2% 12.5–16.5% 12.0–17.2%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.5–14.7% 11.2–15.0% 10.7–15.7%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.8% 8.8–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.3–11.6% 7.8–12.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 3.5% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–5.1%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 45 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 33 29–37 28–37 27–38 26–39
Perussuomalaiset 38 34 30–35 29–36 28–37 25–38
Suomen Keskusta 49 33 29–35 28–35 27–36 25–38
Vihreä liitto 15 24 22–28 21–29 21–30 19–31
Vasemmistoliitto 12 18 16–21 16–22 16–22 14–24
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 5–12
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 5 2–6 1–6 0–6 0–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.8% 99.6%  
39 1.2% 98.8%  
40 3% 98%  
41 12% 95%  
42 10% 82%  
43 7% 72%  
44 12% 65%  
45 18% 53% Median
46 11% 36%  
47 12% 25%  
48 6% 13%  
49 2% 7%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 5% 95%  
29 7% 91%  
30 5% 84%  
31 14% 78%  
32 8% 64%  
33 14% 57% Median
34 9% 43%  
35 10% 34%  
36 9% 23%  
37 10% 14% Last Result
38 3% 4%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.5%  
27 0.8% 98.9%  
28 3% 98%  
29 4% 95%  
30 8% 91%  
31 6% 83%  
32 14% 78%  
33 14% 64%  
34 27% 50% Median
35 15% 23%  
36 3% 8%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.7%  
26 0.5% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.9%  
28 3% 97%  
29 5% 94%  
30 3% 89%  
31 5% 86%  
32 7% 81%  
33 45% 74% Median
34 13% 29%  
35 12% 16%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.6% 1.4%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.8%  
20 1.4% 99.1%  
21 7% 98%  
22 7% 90%  
23 15% 83%  
24 20% 68% Median
25 13% 48%  
26 10% 36%  
27 11% 25%  
28 6% 15%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.1% 1.4%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100% Last Result
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.5% 99.6%  
15 2% 99.0%  
16 10% 98%  
17 19% 87%  
18 22% 69% Median
19 25% 46%  
20 7% 22%  
21 7% 15%  
22 5% 8%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.6% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.4% 99.8%  
6 4% 99.4%  
7 36% 96%  
8 21% 59% Median
9 8% 39% Last Result
10 25% 30%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.5% 1.0%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 6% 96%  
2 14% 90%  
3 7% 77%  
4 7% 69%  
5 13% 62% Last Result, Median
6 49% 49%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 133 100% 130–137 129–138 128–140 126–143
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 114 100% 111–119 110–120 109–121 106–123
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Perussuomalaiset – Suomen Keskusta 124 99 29% 94–103 93–105 92–106 89–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 96 10% 92–101 90–102 90–104 88–106
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 90 0.1% 85–94 84–96 83–96 81–99
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 88 0% 83–92 82–93 81–95 80–98
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 78 0% 74–83 73–84 71–85 70–87
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 66 0% 61–70 60–72 59–72 57–73

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.3% 99.7%  
127 0.6% 99.4%  
128 1.4% 98.8%  
129 4% 97%  
130 7% 94%  
131 8% 87%  
132 23% 79%  
133 15% 56% Median
134 11% 40%  
135 10% 29%  
136 6% 20%  
137 7% 14%  
138 2% 7%  
139 2% 5%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 1.1% 2%  
142 0.3% 0.9%  
143 0.4% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.7% 99.2%  
109 2% 98%  
110 3% 96%  
111 5% 94%  
112 5% 89%  
113 19% 84%  
114 15% 65%  
115 12% 50% Median
116 11% 38%  
117 8% 27%  
118 7% 19%  
119 3% 11%  
120 5% 9%  
121 2% 4%  
122 1.0% 2%  
123 0.5% 0.9%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.2% 0.2%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Perussuomalaiset – Suomen Keskusta

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 1.1% 99.3%  
91 0.5% 98%  
92 2% 98%  
93 5% 95%  
94 7% 90%  
95 7% 84%  
96 7% 77%  
97 7% 70%  
98 13% 64%  
99 10% 51%  
100 12% 41% Median
101 5% 29% Majority
102 9% 24%  
103 7% 15%  
104 3% 8%  
105 0.8% 6%  
106 4% 5%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.5% 99.7%  
89 0.5% 99.2%  
90 5% 98.7%  
91 3% 93%  
92 2% 91%  
93 14% 89%  
94 9% 74%  
95 15% 65% Median
96 7% 51%  
97 10% 43%  
98 7% 33%  
99 10% 26%  
100 6% 16%  
101 4% 10% Majority
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.3% 0.9%  
106 0.3% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.6%  
82 1.2% 99.0%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 5% 94% Last Result
86 4% 89%  
87 4% 85%  
88 9% 81%  
89 11% 72%  
90 18% 61%  
91 9% 43% Median
92 11% 34%  
93 10% 24%  
94 5% 14%  
95 3% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.7% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.7% 99.5%  
81 3% 98.8%  
82 0.9% 96%  
83 9% 95%  
84 5% 85%  
85 6% 80%  
86 9% 74%  
87 11% 66% Median
88 14% 54%  
89 11% 40%  
90 8% 29%  
91 7% 22%  
92 5% 14%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.4% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.5%  
71 1.5% 98.7%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 4% 92%  
75 10% 87%  
76 5% 77%  
77 13% 71%  
78 14% 59%  
79 10% 45% Median
80 7% 35%  
81 5% 27%  
82 10% 23%  
83 5% 13%  
84 6% 8%  
85 1.4% 3%  
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.2%  
59 2% 98.7%  
60 4% 97%  
61 6% 93%  
62 6% 87%  
63 6% 81%  
64 14% 75%  
65 9% 61%  
66 15% 52% Median
67 8% 37%  
68 10% 29%  
69 6% 19%  
70 5% 14%  
71 3% 8%  
72 5% 6%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations