Opinion Poll by Tietoykkönen for Iltalehti and Uusi Suomi, 25 March–3 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.6% 18.2–21.1% 17.8–21.5% 17.4–21.9% 16.8–22.7%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.3–19.9%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.7% 13.5–16.1% 13.1–16.5% 12.8–16.9% 12.3–17.5%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 13.4% 12.2–14.8% 11.9–15.1% 11.6–15.5% 11.0–16.1%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 13.3% 12.1–14.7% 11.8–15.0% 11.5–15.4% 11.0–16.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.1% 8.1–10.2% 7.8–10.6% 7.6–10.8% 7.1–11.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 3.9% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 44 41–47 40–47 39–49 36–51
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 37 32–39 31–40 31–41 29–42
Suomen Keskusta 49 34 31–35 30–36 29–39 27–41
Perussuomalaiset 38 29 25–33 25–33 24–34 22–35
Vihreä liitto 15 26 22–30 22–31 21–31 20–32
Vasemmistoliitto 12 16 14–20 13–21 12–21 12–22
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 4–7 2–7 1–8
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 7 6–9 6–10 5–10 4–11
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.4% 99.4%  
38 0.7% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 10% 92%  
42 7% 82%  
43 16% 75%  
44 14% 59% Median
45 20% 45%  
46 8% 25%  
47 13% 18%  
48 2% 5%  
49 0.8% 3%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.5%  
30 0.9% 98.8%  
31 7% 98%  
32 11% 91%  
33 6% 80%  
34 5% 74%  
35 6% 69%  
36 10% 64%  
37 21% 53% Last Result, Median
38 20% 32%  
39 4% 12%  
40 5% 8%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.8%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 7% 93%  
32 6% 86%  
33 27% 81%  
34 28% 54% Median
35 16% 25%  
36 5% 9%  
37 0.8% 4%  
38 0.9% 4%  
39 0.7% 3%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.0%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.9%  
23 1.3% 99.0%  
24 3% 98%  
25 9% 95%  
26 13% 86%  
27 5% 72%  
28 11% 67%  
29 9% 56% Median
30 4% 47%  
31 13% 43%  
32 8% 30%  
33 19% 22%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.0% 1.3%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 3% 98.9%  
22 8% 96%  
23 12% 88%  
24 7% 76%  
25 16% 69%  
26 6% 52% Median
27 9% 46%  
28 19% 37%  
29 5% 17%  
30 7% 12%  
31 3% 5%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 3% 99.9% Last Result
13 3% 97%  
14 5% 95%  
15 8% 90%  
16 32% 81% Median
17 14% 49%  
18 11% 35%  
19 13% 24%  
20 4% 11%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.5% 99.9%  
2 2% 99.3%  
3 0.7% 97%  
4 2% 97%  
5 10% 94% Last Result
6 79% 84% Median
7 4% 5%  
8 0.5% 0.8%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100%  
5 2% 98.8%  
6 18% 97%  
7 34% 79% Median
8 28% 46%  
9 9% 18% Last Result
10 7% 9%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 112 136 100% 132–140 131–141 131–143 129–145
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 119 100% 115–123 114–124 113–125 110–127
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset 124 99 39% 93–104 92–104 91–105 88–107
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 93 10% 89–101 89–102 88–102 86–105
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 85 93 1.0% 90–97 88–99 87–99 83–102
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 86 0% 82–93 81–95 80–95 78–98
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 100 83 0% 78–87 78–88 77–89 74–92
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 69 0% 66–74 65–75 64–76 62–78

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.4% 99.7%  
130 1.0% 99.3%  
131 3% 98%  
132 5% 95%  
133 15% 90%  
134 9% 75%  
135 13% 65%  
136 9% 52% Median
137 12% 43%  
138 9% 31%  
139 8% 22%  
140 6% 14%  
141 5% 9%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 1.2% 3%  
144 0.5% 1.4%  
145 0.7% 0.8%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.8%  
111 0.4% 99.5%  
112 1.0% 99.1%  
113 2% 98%  
114 3% 96%  
115 6% 93%  
116 8% 87%  
117 10% 80%  
118 9% 70%  
119 12% 61%  
120 17% 49% Median
121 13% 31%  
122 6% 18%  
123 4% 13%  
124 4% 9%  
125 3% 5%  
126 0.6% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.7%  
128 0.1% 0.5%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Perussuomalaiset

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 0.5% 99.4%  
90 0.3% 98.9%  
91 2% 98.6%  
92 5% 96%  
93 4% 91%  
94 9% 86%  
95 3% 77%  
96 8% 74%  
97 4% 66%  
98 6% 62%  
99 9% 56%  
100 8% 47% Median
101 10% 39% Majority
102 7% 29%  
103 8% 22%  
104 10% 14%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.2% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8%  
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 1.3% 99.2%  
88 3% 98%  
89 9% 95%  
90 9% 86%  
91 9% 78%  
92 9% 69%  
93 11% 61% Median
94 5% 49%  
95 6% 44%  
96 3% 38%  
97 8% 35%  
98 4% 27%  
99 9% 23%  
100 3% 14%  
101 2% 10% Majority
102 6% 8%  
103 0.4% 1.5%  
104 0.5% 1.1%  
105 0.3% 0.6%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 0.8% 99.1% Last Result
86 0.6% 98%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 4% 95%  
90 10% 90%  
91 12% 80%  
92 11% 68%  
93 12% 57%  
94 12% 46% Median
95 12% 33%  
96 9% 22%  
97 5% 13%  
98 3% 8%  
99 3% 5%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.0% Majority
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.5%  
79 1.3% 99.4%  
80 2% 98%  
81 1.4% 96%  
82 6% 95%  
83 13% 88%  
84 12% 75%  
85 11% 64%  
86 7% 53% Median
87 5% 46%  
88 8% 42%  
89 7% 34%  
90 2% 27%  
91 6% 24%  
92 4% 18%  
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 9%  
95 4% 5%  
96 0.4% 1.1%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.6%  
99 0.4% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Kristillisdemokraatit – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 1.0% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 7% 96%  
79 5% 89%  
80 9% 84%  
81 10% 75%  
82 13% 65%  
83 16% 52%  
84 11% 36% Median
85 6% 25%  
86 7% 20%  
87 5% 13%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 5%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.2%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 98.8%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 11% 95%  
67 10% 84%  
68 10% 74%  
69 15% 64%  
70 12% 50%  
71 8% 37% Median
72 14% 29%  
73 5% 15%  
74 4% 10%  
75 2% 6%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.6% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations