Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 3–7 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.6% 18.5–20.8% 18.2–21.1% 17.9–21.4% 17.4–22.0%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–19.0% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.4% 13.4–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 12.9–16.0% 12.5–16.5%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 9.6% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.8% 8.4–11.0% 8.0–11.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.1% 3.6–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 43 41–46 41–47 39–47 38–48
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 37 34–38 33–39 33–40 31–41
Perussuomalaiset 38 33 31–35 29–35 29–35 27–37
Suomen Keskusta 49 33 30–35 30–35 29–35 27–36
Vihreä liitto 15 22 19–24 19–25 18–26 18–28
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 16–19 16–20 15–21 14–22
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 5–6 5–6 2–6 2–6
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 2% 97%  
41 9% 95%  
42 19% 86%  
43 27% 67% Median
44 10% 40%  
45 17% 30%  
46 8% 13%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.8%  
32 0.9% 99.0%  
33 5% 98%  
34 6% 93%  
35 11% 87%  
36 9% 77%  
37 24% 68% Last Result, Median
38 38% 44%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 1.2% 1.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.5%  
28 0.9% 98.8%  
29 3% 98%  
30 4% 95%  
31 21% 90%  
32 14% 69%  
33 20% 55% Median
34 24% 35%  
35 9% 10%  
36 0.7% 1.4%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 2% 98%  
30 6% 96%  
31 9% 89%  
32 11% 81%  
33 41% 70% Median
34 12% 30%  
35 17% 17%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 8% 97%  
20 5% 90%  
21 20% 84%  
22 27% 64% Median
23 18% 38%  
24 11% 19%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 98%  
16 27% 97%  
17 25% 70% Median
18 23% 45%  
19 14% 23%  
20 4% 9%  
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 40% 99.0%  
8 27% 59% Median
9 7% 32% Last Result
10 22% 25%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 3% 99.9%  
3 1.0% 97%  
4 0.8% 96%  
5 6% 95% Last Result
6 89% 90% Median
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 133 100% 131–136 131–137 130–138 129–142
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 116 100% 113–119 112–120 112–121 111–122
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Perussuomalaiset – Suomen Keskusta 124 102 72% 99–106 97–106 96–106 94–108
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 94 0.3% 91–97 90–98 90–99 88–100
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 91 0% 88–95 87–96 87–97 85–99
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 84 0% 80–87 79–88 78–88 76–90
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 83 0% 80–86 78–87 78–88 76–90
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 70 0% 66–73 65–73 64–73 62–75

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 100%  
128 0.3% 99.9%  
129 0.4% 99.6%  
130 2% 99.2%  
131 13% 97%  
132 21% 85%  
133 14% 63% Median
134 12% 49%  
135 17% 37%  
136 11% 20%  
137 5% 8%  
138 1.4% 4%  
139 1.1% 2%  
140 0.5% 1.4%  
141 0.3% 0.8%  
142 0.4% 0.6%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 1.4% 99.6%  
112 3% 98%  
113 11% 95%  
114 10% 84%  
115 13% 74%  
116 17% 60% Median
117 13% 43%  
118 9% 30%  
119 14% 21%  
120 4% 7%  
121 1.3% 3%  
122 1.3% 2%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Perussuomalaiset – Suomen Keskusta

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.6% 99.9%  
95 1.3% 99.3%  
96 1.1% 98%  
97 3% 97%  
98 3% 94%  
99 10% 91%  
100 9% 81%  
101 11% 72% Majority
102 16% 61%  
103 11% 45% Median
104 11% 34%  
105 13% 23%  
106 9% 11%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 1.2% 99.6%  
89 0.9% 98%  
90 4% 98%  
91 6% 94%  
92 12% 88%  
93 8% 76%  
94 28% 68% Median
95 16% 40%  
96 9% 24%  
97 7% 14%  
98 3% 7%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.9% 1.1%  
101 0.1% 0.3% Majority
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7%  
86 0.7% 99.4%  
87 8% 98.6%  
88 12% 91%  
89 10% 79%  
90 11% 69% Median
91 16% 58%  
92 11% 42%  
93 11% 31%  
94 9% 20%  
95 4% 11%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.2% 4%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.7% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0% Majority

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 3% 98.7%  
79 3% 96%  
80 3% 93%  
81 12% 89%  
82 9% 77%  
83 9% 67%  
84 23% 59% Median
85 16% 36%  
86 8% 19%  
87 3% 11%  
88 6% 8%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 1.0% 1.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.9% 99.5%  
78 4% 98.6%  
79 2% 95%  
80 10% 93%  
81 15% 83%  
82 10% 68% Median
83 19% 58%  
84 13% 39%  
85 12% 27%  
86 5% 15%  
87 5% 9%  
88 3% 5%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.5% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.4%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 5% 93%  
67 6% 88%  
68 16% 82%  
69 10% 66%  
70 10% 56% Median
71 27% 46%  
72 9% 19%  
73 9% 10%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations