Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 1–9 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 16.5% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.0%
Perussuomalaiset 17.6% 16.3% 15.0–17.7% 14.6–18.1% 14.3–18.5% 13.7–19.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus 18.2% 15.9% 14.6–17.3% 14.3–17.7% 14.0–18.0% 13.4–18.7%
Suomen Keskusta 21.1% 14.5% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.3% 12.7–16.6% 12.1–17.3%
Vihreä liitto 8.5% 12.2% 11.1–13.5% 10.8–13.8% 10.5–14.2% 10.0–14.8%
Vasemmistoliitto 7.1% 8.7% 7.8–9.8% 7.5–10.1% 7.3–10.4% 6.8–11.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 4.9% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.2% 3.5–6.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit 3.5% 4.3% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.0%
Sininen tulevaisuus 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue 34 43 39–46 38–47 36–48 35–49
Perussuomalaiset 38 35 32–39 31–39 31–41 29–43
Kansallinen Kokoomus 37 32 29–37 27–38 27–38 26–38
Suomen Keskusta 49 33 30–35 29–36 29–37 27–40
Vihreä liitto 15 23 21–27 20–27 19–28 17–30
Vasemmistoliitto 12 17 14–19 13–19 13–19 11–21
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 9 10 8–11 7–12 7–13 7–13
Kristillisdemokraatit 5 6 6 5–6 4–7 2–9
Sininen tulevaisuus 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 1.1% 98.5%  
37 2% 97%  
38 2% 96%  
39 6% 94%  
40 8% 88%  
41 8% 81%  
42 17% 73%  
43 22% 55% Median
44 6% 33%  
45 15% 27%  
46 3% 12%  
47 5% 9%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.4%  
31 4% 98.5%  
32 6% 95%  
33 7% 88%  
34 19% 81%  
35 36% 62% Median
36 4% 27%  
37 7% 22%  
38 4% 16% Last Result
39 8% 12%  
40 2% 4%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.4%  
43 0.2% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.7%  
27 5% 98.9%  
28 4% 94%  
29 6% 90%  
30 3% 84%  
31 9% 80%  
32 22% 71% Median
33 11% 49%  
34 5% 38%  
35 11% 33%  
36 6% 22%  
37 7% 16% Last Result
38 8% 8%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.3% 99.5%  
28 1.0% 99.2%  
29 6% 98%  
30 15% 92%  
31 6% 77%  
32 8% 71%  
33 16% 63% Median
34 23% 47%  
35 18% 24%  
36 2% 5%  
37 1.0% 3%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.4% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100% Last Result
16 0% 100%  
17 0.5% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.5%  
19 3% 98%  
20 2% 96%  
21 27% 93%  
22 14% 67%  
23 12% 53% Median
24 5% 41%  
25 10% 36%  
26 10% 25%  
27 11% 16%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.5% 1.1%  
30 0.3% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 0.9% 99.1% Last Result
13 4% 98%  
14 12% 94%  
15 4% 82%  
16 20% 79%  
17 22% 59% Median
18 23% 36%  
19 11% 13%  
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 9% 99.6%  
8 12% 91%  
9 12% 79% Last Result
10 51% 67% Median
11 8% 16%  
12 4% 8%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.9% 99.9%  
3 1.1% 99.0%  
4 1.4% 98%  
5 4% 97% Last Result
6 89% 92% Median
7 1.3% 3%  
8 0.9% 2%  
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Sininen tulevaisuus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sininen tulevaisuus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 112 131 100% 127–135 125–135 124–136 122–138
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 114 100% 110–119 109–120 107–121 105–122
Perussuomalaiset – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta 124 101 55% 96–105 96–107 94–108 93–111
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland 70 92 0.2% 88–97 86–97 85–99 82–99
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 85 91 0.1% 86–96 85–97 84–98 81–99
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto 61 83 0% 78–87 77–88 75–89 73–90
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit 100 82 0% 76–86 76–87 75–88 73–90
Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus 86 66 0% 61–70 61–72 60–72 59–74

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100% Last Result
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.7% 99.7%  
123 0.4% 99.0%  
124 1.4% 98.6%  
125 3% 97%  
126 3% 95%  
127 3% 92%  
128 5% 88%  
129 9% 83%  
130 19% 75%  
131 14% 56% Median
132 8% 42%  
133 6% 34%  
134 16% 28%  
135 7% 11%  
136 3% 4%  
137 1.1% 2%  
138 0.4% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Vihreä liitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100% Last Result
101 0% 100% Majority
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.3% 99.9%  
105 0.4% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.2%  
107 2% 98.8%  
108 1.5% 97%  
109 4% 96%  
110 3% 92%  
111 7% 89%  
112 14% 81%  
113 9% 68%  
114 9% 59% Median
115 9% 50%  
116 9% 41%  
117 15% 32%  
118 7% 17%  
119 4% 10%  
120 4% 7%  
121 2% 3%  
122 0.4% 0.6%  
123 0.2% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.1%  
125 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.8%  
94 2% 99.4%  
95 2% 97%  
96 12% 96%  
97 5% 84%  
98 4% 79%  
99 5% 75%  
100 16% 70% Median
101 15% 55% Majority
102 11% 40%  
103 8% 28%  
104 7% 20%  
105 4% 14%  
106 3% 9%  
107 3% 6%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.3% 1.0%  
111 0.5% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0% Last Result

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100% Last Result
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.4%  
84 0.9% 99.2%  
85 2% 98%  
86 3% 97%  
87 3% 94%  
88 4% 91%  
89 7% 87%  
90 8% 80%  
91 11% 72%  
92 14% 61%  
93 17% 47% Median
94 4% 30%  
95 4% 26%  
96 6% 22%  
97 12% 17%  
98 2% 5%  
99 3% 3%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2% Majority
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Kansallinen Kokoomus – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.5%  
83 0.7% 98.8%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 2% 97% Last Result
86 5% 94%  
87 7% 90%  
88 6% 83%  
89 6% 77%  
90 15% 71%  
91 14% 56% Median
92 7% 43%  
93 10% 36%  
94 8% 26%  
95 7% 18%  
96 4% 11%  
97 4% 7%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1% Majority
102 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue – Vihreä liitto – Vasemmistoliitto

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 1.1% 99.5%  
75 2% 98%  
76 1.4% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 10% 83%  
81 8% 73%  
82 14% 64%  
83 12% 51% Median
84 9% 38%  
85 7% 30%  
86 6% 23%  
87 8% 17%  
88 6% 9%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland – Kristillisdemokraatit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 3% 98.8%  
76 6% 96%  
77 8% 89%  
78 6% 82%  
79 9% 75%  
80 9% 66%  
81 7% 57% Median
82 11% 51%  
83 14% 40%  
84 7% 26%  
85 7% 19%  
86 3% 11%  
87 5% 8%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0% Last Result

Kansallinen Kokoomus – Suomen Keskusta – Sininen tulevaisuus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.5%  
60 2% 98%  
61 12% 96%  
62 6% 84%  
63 7% 77%  
64 6% 70%  
65 8% 64% Median
66 13% 56%  
67 16% 44%  
68 8% 28%  
69 6% 19%  
70 4% 14%  
71 3% 9%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations