Opinion Poll by TNS for De Standaard and VRT, 29 March–19 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang | 18.5% | 24.7% | 23.5–26.0% | 23.2–26.4% | 22.8–26.7% | 22.3–27.4% |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 24.8% | 21.5% | 20.4–22.8% | 20.0–23.1% | 19.8–23.5% | 19.2–24.1% |
| Vooruit | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 13.1% | 11.5% | 10.6–12.5% | 10.4–12.8% | 10.2–13.0% | 9.8–13.5% |
| Groen | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.0–11.9% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.2–12.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 15.4% | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.2–8.8% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang | 23 | 33 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 35 | 28 | 27–29 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 26–33 |
| Vooruit | 12 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 16 | 15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Groen | 14 | 15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 11–18 |
| Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 19 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Partij van de Arbeid van België | 4 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–12 |
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 8% | 90% | |
| 32 | 14% | 82% | |
| 33 | 27% | 67% | Median |
| 34 | 36% | 40% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 43% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 30% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 17% | 26% | |
| 30 | 5% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 38% | 95% | |
| 15 | 39% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 18% | |
| 17 | 4% | 8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 10% | 91% | |
| 14 | 26% | 81% | |
| 15 | 30% | 55% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 26% | Last Result |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 98% | |
| 13 | 5% | 96% | |
| 14 | 32% | 91% | Last Result |
| 15 | 51% | 59% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 30% | 89% | |
| 12 | 52% | 59% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 33% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 56% | 66% | Median |
| 9 | 6% | 10% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 77 | 72 | 100% | 70–74 | 70–75 | 69–76 | 67–77 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 82 | 69 | 100% | 67–71 | 67–72 | 66–72 | 65–74 |
| Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie | 58 | 61 | 11% | 59–63 | 58–63 | 57–64 | 56–65 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 63 | 57 | 0.2% | 56–59 | 55–60 | 55–61 | 54–62 |
| Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 61 | 56 | 0% | 54–57 | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 66 | 54 | 0% | 52–56 | 52–57 | 52–58 | 51–59 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 70 | 54 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–57 | 51–57 | 50–58 |
| Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België | 49 | 49 | 0% | 47–51 | 46–51 | 46–52 | 44–53 |
| Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen | 42 | 44 | 0% | 42–46 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 39–49 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 51 | 42 | 0% | 41–44 | 40–45 | 40–46 | 39–47 |
| Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 45 | 41 | 0% | 39–43 | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 |
| Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 47 | 41 | 0% | 39–43 | 38–43 | 38–44 | 36–45 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 49 | 41 | 0% | 38–42 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–45 |
| Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 54 | 39 | 0% | 38–41 | 37–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 |
| Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten | 28 | 29 | 0% | 28–31 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–34 |
| Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 31 | 26 | 0% | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–30 |
| Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams | 35 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–30 |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 69 | 3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 7% | 95% | |
| 71 | 13% | 88% | |
| 72 | 32% | 75% | |
| 73 | 24% | 43% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 19% | |
| 75 | 5% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 12% | 97% | |
| 68 | 32% | 85% | |
| 69 | 24% | 53% | |
| 70 | 15% | 29% | Median |
| 71 | 8% | 14% | |
| 72 | 5% | 7% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 59 | 10% | 92% | |
| 60 | 20% | 83% | |
| 61 | 39% | 63% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 24% | |
| 63 | 6% | 11% | Majority |
| 64 | 3% | 5% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 28% | 95% | |
| 57 | 29% | 66% | |
| 58 | 19% | 37% | Median |
| 59 | 8% | 18% | |
| 60 | 6% | 10% | |
| 61 | 3% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result, Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 5% | 96% | |
| 54 | 12% | 90% | |
| 55 | 28% | 79% | |
| 56 | 31% | 51% | |
| 57 | 11% | 19% | Median |
| 58 | 5% | 8% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 10% | 98% | |
| 53 | 19% | 88% | |
| 54 | 29% | 69% | |
| 55 | 16% | 40% | Median |
| 56 | 16% | 24% | |
| 57 | 5% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 9% | 94% | |
| 53 | 24% | 86% | |
| 54 | 24% | 61% | |
| 55 | 18% | 37% | Median |
| 56 | 13% | 19% | |
| 57 | 4% | 6% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 15% | 95% | |
| 48 | 21% | 80% | |
| 49 | 36% | 59% | Last Result |
| 50 | 12% | 23% | Median |
| 51 | 7% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98% | |
| 42 | 10% | 93% | Last Result |
| 43 | 16% | 83% | |
| 44 | 39% | 68% | |
| 45 | 16% | 29% | Median |
| 46 | 8% | 13% | |
| 47 | 3% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 19% | 94% | |
| 42 | 28% | 75% | |
| 43 | 22% | 46% | Median |
| 44 | 16% | 24% | |
| 45 | 6% | 8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 39 | 10% | 96% | |
| 40 | 22% | 86% | |
| 41 | 34% | 64% | |
| 42 | 20% | 30% | Median |
| 43 | 6% | 11% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 4% | 98% | |
| 39 | 7% | 94% | |
| 40 | 21% | 87% | |
| 41 | 37% | 66% | |
| 42 | 18% | 29% | Median |
| 43 | 7% | 11% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 7% | 95% | |
| 39 | 10% | 89% | |
| 40 | 21% | 79% | |
| 41 | 24% | 57% | |
| 42 | 25% | 34% | Median |
| 43 | 6% | 9% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 18% | 95% | |
| 39 | 30% | 76% | |
| 40 | 24% | 46% | Median |
| 41 | 16% | 23% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 6% | 97% | |
| 28 | 11% | 91% | Last Result |
| 29 | 38% | 80% | |
| 30 | 26% | 43% | Median |
| 31 | 11% | 16% | |
| 32 | 3% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 16% | 95% | |
| 26 | 35% | 79% | |
| 27 | 30% | 44% | Median |
| 28 | 8% | 13% | |
| 29 | 4% | 5% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 8% | 94% | |
| 25 | 17% | 86% | |
| 26 | 24% | 69% | |
| 27 | 29% | 44% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 15% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS
- Commissioner(s): De Standaard and VRT
- Fieldwork period: 29 March–19 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1908
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%