Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM, 1–8 December 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18.5% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24.8% 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
Vooruit 10.1% 13.9% 12.5–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.8–16.2% 11.2–16.9%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 15.4% 10.7% 9.6–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 13.1% 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.0–13.1%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.3% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.9% 6.8–11.5%
Groen 10.1% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 23 33 29–34 28–35 28–36 27–38
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 35 28 27–31 26–32 25–33 23–33
Vooruit 12 18 15–19 15–20 14–21 14–23
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 19 12 11–14 10–15 10–16 10–16
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 16 12 11–15 11–15 10–16 9–16
Partij van de Arbeid van België 4 10 8–13 7–13 7–13 7–14
Groen 14 11 9–12 7–14 7–14 6–15

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 4% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 9% 87%  
31 10% 77%  
32 13% 67%  
33 19% 55% Median
34 26% 35%  
35 5% 9%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 0.9% 99.2%  
25 2% 98%  
26 5% 97%  
27 32% 92%  
28 20% 60% Median
29 19% 40%  
30 10% 21%  
31 5% 11%  
32 4% 6%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 10% 97%  
16 8% 87%  
17 12% 80%  
18 30% 68% Median
19 32% 38%  
20 3% 6%  
21 1.3% 3%  
22 0.7% 1.4%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 6% 99.6%  
11 17% 94%  
12 34% 77% Median
13 13% 43%  
14 23% 30%  
15 4% 7%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.6%  
10 3% 99.1%  
11 31% 96%  
12 23% 65% Median
13 14% 42%  
14 16% 28%  
15 8% 12%  
16 4% 4% Last Result
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 9% 99.8%  
8 23% 91%  
9 16% 69%  
10 15% 52% Median
11 11% 38%  
12 8% 27%  
13 17% 19%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.6%  
7 6% 98.9%  
8 3% 93%  
9 8% 90%  
10 9% 82%  
11 59% 73% Median
12 6% 14%  
13 2% 7%  
14 4% 5% Last Result
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 77 73 100% 70–76 69–77 68–78 66–79
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 82 71 100% 68–74 67–75 67–76 65–77
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 58 61 23% 57–64 56–65 55–65 54–67
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 66 59 5% 56–62 55–62 54–63 53–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 58 6% 56–62 55–63 54–63 53–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 70 53 0% 50–56 49–57 49–58 48–60
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 61 54 0% 50–56 49–57 48–58 47–60
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 49 51 0% 48–55 47–56 46–56 44–57
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 47 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–49
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 54 41 0% 38–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 51 41 0% 38–44 38–45 37–45 35–47
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 45 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–45 35–47
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 42 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 49 36 0% 33–39 32–40 31–40 30–42
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 28 30 0% 27–33 27–34 26–35 25–36
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 31 30 0% 28–33 27–34 26–34 25–36
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 35 25 0% 22–28 22–29 22–29 21–30

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 1.5% 99.4%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 6% 92%  
71 11% 86%  
72 15% 75%  
73 16% 60% Median
74 16% 45%  
75 12% 29%  
76 8% 17%  
77 5% 9% Last Result
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100% Majority
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 4% 98%  
68 9% 95%  
69 12% 86%  
70 16% 74% Median
71 14% 58%  
72 16% 43%  
73 11% 27%  
74 7% 16%  
75 5% 9%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.9% 1.4%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 3% 97%  
57 7% 93%  
58 8% 87% Last Result
59 8% 79%  
60 18% 71%  
61 18% 53% Median
62 12% 35%  
63 11% 23% Majority
64 7% 12%  
65 3% 5%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.7%  
54 2% 98.9%  
55 4% 96%  
56 10% 92%  
57 15% 82%  
58 17% 67% Median
59 15% 50%  
60 16% 36%  
61 8% 20%  
62 7% 12%  
63 3% 5% Majority
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 1.1% 99.6%  
54 2% 98.5%  
55 5% 96%  
56 10% 91%  
57 15% 82%  
58 18% 67% Median
59 17% 49%  
60 13% 33%  
61 9% 19%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 6% Last Result, Majority
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.7%  
49 4% 98.9%  
50 5% 95%  
51 12% 89%  
52 15% 77% Median
53 18% 62%  
54 14% 44%  
55 12% 30%  
56 9% 18%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 3% 97%  
50 6% 94%  
51 12% 88%  
52 10% 76%  
53 15% 66% Median
54 17% 51%  
55 12% 34%  
56 12% 22%  
57 5% 10%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0% Majority

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.5%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 6% 92%  
49 16% 86% Last Result
50 17% 70%  
51 15% 53% Median
52 12% 38%  
53 10% 27%  
54 6% 17%  
55 5% 11%  
56 4% 5%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 5% 97%  
40 7% 92%  
41 13% 85%  
42 18% 72% Median
43 18% 54%  
44 11% 35%  
45 12% 24%  
46 7% 12%  
47 3% 5% Last Result
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.6%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 9% 96%  
39 14% 87%  
40 18% 73% Median
41 23% 55%  
42 11% 32%  
43 8% 21%  
44 7% 13%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.8% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.7% 99.5%  
37 4% 98.8%  
38 11% 95%  
39 11% 84%  
40 17% 73% Median
41 23% 56%  
42 14% 33%  
43 8% 19%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.5%  
36 2% 98.6%  
37 3% 97%  
38 8% 93%  
39 11% 86%  
40 16% 75%  
41 14% 58% Median
42 19% 44%  
43 12% 25%  
44 7% 12%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.5%  
36 2% 98%  
37 5% 96%  
38 8% 91%  
39 10% 83%  
40 14% 73%  
41 18% 59% Median
42 17% 41% Last Result
43 9% 24%  
44 9% 15%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.6%  
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 96%  
33 10% 90%  
34 9% 80%  
35 16% 70% Median
36 18% 54%  
37 16% 36%  
38 9% 21%  
39 6% 11%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.7%  
26 3% 99.0%  
27 6% 96%  
28 7% 90% Last Result
29 16% 83%  
30 24% 66% Median
31 20% 43%  
32 8% 23%  
33 8% 15%  
34 5% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 7% 97%  
28 8% 91%  
29 15% 83%  
30 19% 68% Median
31 24% 49% Last Result
32 13% 26%  
33 7% 12%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 9% 98%  
23 13% 89%  
24 18% 76% Median
25 18% 57%  
26 16% 39%  
27 12% 24%  
28 6% 11%  
29 3% 5%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations