Opinion Poll by Kantar and Universiteit Antwerpen for De Standaard and VRT, 8–22 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18.5% 27.8% 26.5–29.2% 26.1–29.6% 25.8–29.9% 25.2–30.6%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24.8% 18.9% 17.8–20.1% 17.5–20.5% 17.2–20.8% 16.7–21.4%
Vooruit 10.1% 13.7% 12.7–14.8% 12.5–15.1% 12.2–15.4% 11.8–15.9%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 15.4% 11.3% 10.4–12.3% 10.1–12.6% 9.9–12.8% 9.5–13.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.3% 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.8–12.2% 9.6–12.4% 9.1–12.9%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 13.1% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Groen 10.1% 8.2% 7.4–9.1% 7.2–9.3% 7.0–9.5% 6.7–10.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 23 37 34–37 34–38 33–39 32–41
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 35 25 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–27
Vooruit 12 17 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–19
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 19 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid van België 4 13 12–14 12–14 11–14 10–16
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 16 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
Groen 14 10 8–11 7–11 7–12 7–13

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.6%  
34 7% 96%  
35 18% 89%  
36 18% 72%  
37 44% 53% Median
38 6% 10%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 1.3%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 3% 100%  
22 10% 97%  
23 16% 88%  
24 19% 71%  
25 22% 53% Median
26 25% 31%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 5% 98%  
16 34% 93%  
17 15% 59% Median
18 22% 44%  
19 22% 22%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 18% 99.9%  
12 23% 81%  
13 25% 59% Median
14 32% 34%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 4% 98.8%  
12 10% 95%  
13 42% 85% Median
14 42% 44%  
15 1.1% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.7%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 16% 99.8%  
9 12% 84%  
10 28% 72% Median
11 27% 44%  
12 16% 17%  
13 1.3% 1.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 6% 99.8%  
8 5% 94%  
9 23% 89%  
10 30% 66% Median
11 32% 36%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 1.4%  
14 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 77 74 100% 71–75 70–76 70–77 69–78
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 82 65 89% 62–67 62–68 61–68 60–69
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 58 61 16% 58–63 58–64 57–64 56–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 66 54 0% 52–57 52–57 51–58 50–58
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 49 53 0% 51–56 50–56 49–57 48–58
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 52 0% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–57
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 61 50 0% 48–52 47–53 47–54 46–55
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 70 48 0% 45–50 44–51 44–51 43–52
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 47 40 0% 38–42 37–43 37–44 36–45
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 45 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 42 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 54 38 0% 35–40 34–40 33–40 33–41
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 51 35 0% 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 49 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–36 29–37
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 31 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–34
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 28 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–31
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 35 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 1.4% 99.7%  
70 5% 98%  
71 8% 93%  
72 14% 85%  
73 17% 71%  
74 20% 53%  
75 23% 33% Median
76 6% 10%  
77 3% 4% Last Result
78 0.8% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.0% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 7% 96%  
63 19% 89% Majority
64 19% 70%  
65 22% 51% Median
66 15% 30%  
67 9% 15%  
68 4% 6%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 1.5% 99.5%  
57 3% 98%  
58 6% 96% Last Result
59 14% 90%  
60 19% 76%  
61 24% 56%  
62 16% 33% Median
63 11% 16% Majority
64 5% 5%  
65 0.7% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.7%  
52 11% 95%  
53 16% 84%  
54 21% 68%  
55 17% 47% Median
56 17% 30%  
57 9% 13%  
58 4% 4%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.6% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.2% Last Result
50 6% 97%  
51 10% 91%  
52 20% 80%  
53 18% 60% Median
54 17% 42%  
55 14% 25%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 7% 97%  
50 15% 90%  
51 17% 75%  
52 23% 58% Median
53 18% 35%  
54 10% 18%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.8%  
47 6% 98.7%  
48 13% 92%  
49 16% 79%  
50 25% 63% Median
51 19% 39%  
52 12% 19%  
53 4% 8%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.9% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.6%  
44 6% 98%  
45 9% 93%  
46 17% 83%  
47 15% 66%  
48 21% 51% Median
49 16% 30%  
50 8% 14%  
51 5% 6%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 4% 98%  
38 13% 94%  
39 14% 81%  
40 28% 67% Median
41 18% 39%  
42 13% 21%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.0% 99.9%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 6% 96%  
38 15% 89%  
39 18% 75%  
40 19% 57% Median
41 18% 38%  
42 11% 19%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 7% 96%  
36 27% 89%  
37 21% 62% Median
38 17% 41%  
39 12% 23%  
40 8% 12%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 5% 97%  
35 9% 92%  
36 15% 83%  
37 17% 68%  
38 30% 51% Median
39 10% 21%  
40 9% 11%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.0%  
32 8% 96%  
33 15% 88%  
34 21% 73%  
35 19% 52% Median
36 15% 33%  
37 12% 18%  
38 5% 6%  
39 0.8% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 5% 98%  
31 13% 93%  
32 25% 79%  
33 19% 54% Median
34 16% 35%  
35 12% 19%  
36 6% 7%  
37 1.2% 1.5%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 4% 98%  
28 12% 94%  
29 15% 82%  
30 36% 67% Median
31 14% 31% Last Result
32 11% 16%  
33 5% 5%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.3%  
25 6% 96%  
26 23% 90%  
27 25% 67% Median
28 18% 42% Last Result
29 12% 24%  
30 8% 13%  
31 4% 4%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.1% 100%  
20 4% 98.8%  
21 13% 94%  
22 26% 81%  
23 18% 55% Median
24 19% 38%  
25 11% 19%  
26 7% 8%  
27 1.0% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations