Opinion Poll by iVOX for Vlaams & Neutraal Ziekenfonds, 9–22 January 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18.5% 26.6% 25.4–27.9% 25.0–28.3% 24.7–28.6% 24.1–29.2%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24.8% 22.7% 21.5–23.9% 21.2–24.3% 20.9–24.6% 20.4–25.2%
Vooruit 10.1% 12.8% 11.9–13.8% 11.6–14.1% 11.4–14.3% 11.0–14.8%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 15.4% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.1–13.6% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.3% 9.3% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.1–10.7% 7.7–11.1%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 13.1% 7.6% 6.9–8.4% 6.7–8.7% 6.5–8.9% 6.2–9.3%
Groen 10.1% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 23 35 33–37 33–38 32–38 31–39
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 35 30 28–31 27–32 27–33 26–34
Vooruit 12 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 19 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 12–17
Partij van de Arbeid van België 4 11 9–13 9–13 8–13 7–14
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 16 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–11
Groen 14 9 7–11 7–11 6–11 5–11

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.1%  
33 11% 96%  
34 22% 85%  
35 18% 64% Median
36 30% 45%  
37 10% 15%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.8% 100%  
27 8% 99.2%  
28 9% 91%  
29 11% 82%  
30 42% 70% Median
31 19% 28%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.6% 100%  
14 10% 99.4%  
15 18% 89%  
16 39% 71% Median
17 18% 32%  
18 11% 14%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 5% 95%  
14 47% 90% Median
15 25% 42%  
16 12% 18%  
17 6% 6%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 2% 99.4%  
9 12% 97%  
10 12% 86%  
11 30% 73% Median
12 21% 43%  
13 21% 22%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 4% 98%  
7 10% 95%  
8 57% 84% Median
9 14% 28%  
10 6% 14%  
11 8% 8%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0% Last Result

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 1.3% 98%  
7 15% 97%  
8 21% 82%  
9 21% 61% Median
10 21% 40%  
11 19% 19%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 77 79 100% 77–82 76–83 76–83 75–84
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 82 69 100% 66–71 65–72 65–73 64–74
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 58 65 93% 63–67 62–68 62–69 60–70
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 66 60 13% 58–63 57–63 57–64 56–65
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 54 0% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 70 53 0% 50–55 49–56 49–56 48–58
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen 49 51 0% 48–53 47–54 47–54 46–56
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 61 48 0% 46–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 54 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–48 40–49
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen 45 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–43 35–44
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 47 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 51 38 0% 36–40 35–41 35–42 34–43
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 42 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 29–38
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 49 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36
Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 31 31 0% 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 28 24 0% 22–27 22–27 21–27 20–28
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 35 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 1.3% 99.8%  
76 4% 98.5%  
77 10% 95% Last Result
78 15% 85%  
79 23% 69% Median
80 18% 46%  
81 14% 28%  
82 8% 14%  
83 4% 6%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100% Majority
64 1.4% 99.8%  
65 5% 98%  
66 8% 93%  
67 14% 85%  
68 18% 71% Median
69 18% 54%  
70 16% 35%  
71 10% 19%  
72 6% 9%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.4%  
62 5% 98%  
63 14% 93% Majority
64 22% 79%  
65 22% 57% Median
66 17% 36%  
67 11% 19%  
68 5% 8%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.9%  
57 6% 98.7%  
58 9% 93%  
59 15% 84%  
60 21% 70% Median
61 21% 49%  
62 15% 28%  
63 8% 13% Majority
64 3% 5%  
65 0.9% 1.4%  
66 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.5%  
51 6% 97%  
52 11% 91%  
53 18% 80%  
54 21% 62% Median
55 16% 42%  
56 13% 26%  
57 8% 13%  
58 4% 5%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 1.1% 99.7%  
49 6% 98.7%  
50 7% 93%  
51 13% 86%  
52 19% 72% Median
53 22% 53%  
54 14% 31%  
55 10% 17%  
56 5% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Partij van de Arbeid van België – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 1.4% 99.5%  
47 4% 98%  
48 7% 94%  
49 13% 87% Last Result
50 17% 74% Median
51 20% 57%  
52 17% 37%  
53 13% 20%  
54 5% 7%  
55 1.5% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 5% 97%  
46 11% 92%  
47 24% 80% Median
48 22% 56%  
49 17% 34%  
50 11% 17%  
51 4% 7%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 6% 98.9%  
42 8% 93%  
43 12% 85%  
44 23% 72% Median
45 26% 49%  
46 14% 23%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.6%  
36 4% 98.5%  
37 7% 94%  
38 13% 87%  
39 22% 74% Median
40 20% 52%  
41 17% 31%  
42 9% 14%  
43 4% 5%  
44 1.2% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.3%  
36 6% 97%  
37 13% 90%  
38 20% 77% Median
39 20% 56%  
40 17% 37%  
41 11% 20%  
42 6% 8%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.4% 99.8%  
35 8% 98%  
36 7% 90%  
37 15% 83%  
38 31% 68% Median
39 19% 38%  
40 9% 19%  
41 5% 9%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.6%  
30 4% 98%  
31 8% 95%  
32 17% 86%  
33 24% 70% Median
34 20% 46%  
35 16% 26%  
36 6% 10%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 5% 97%  
30 13% 92%  
31 22% 79% Median
32 25% 58%  
33 20% 32%  
34 7% 12%  
35 3% 5%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 5% 98%  
29 15% 93%  
30 27% 78% Median
31 24% 50% Last Result
32 15% 26%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.2%  
22 9% 96%  
23 16% 87%  
24 26% 70% Median
25 19% 44%  
26 14% 25%  
27 9% 11%  
28 2% 2% Last Result
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.5% 99.8%  
20 6% 98%  
21 10% 93%  
22 32% 83% Median
23 21% 51%  
24 13% 30%  
25 11% 17%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.9% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations