Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 18.5% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 24.8% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.7–24.3%
Partij van de Arbeid van België 5.3% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.8–15.1%
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 15.4% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Vooruit 10.1% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 13.1% 10.4% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.1%
Groen 10.1% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang 23 35 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–40
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 35 27 25–30 25–31 24–31 23–32
Partij van de Arbeid van België 4 14 13–18 13–18 13–19 13–19
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 19 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 11–17
Vooruit 12 14 13–16 12–17 11–18 11–19
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 16 12 11–15 11–15 11–16 9–17
Groen 14 5 5–7 3–8 3–9 2–10

Vlaams Belang

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 4% 97%  
32 12% 93%  
33 14% 81%  
34 14% 67%  
35 20% 53% Median
36 19% 33%  
37 8% 15%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 8% 97%  
26 15% 89%  
27 31% 73% Median
28 16% 43%  
29 9% 26%  
30 11% 17%  
31 5% 6%  
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid van België

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.8%  
13 10% 99.5%  
14 40% 90% Median
15 13% 50%  
16 11% 37%  
17 8% 25%  
18 15% 18%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.8%  
12 22% 90%  
13 9% 68%  
14 30% 59% Median
15 18% 29%  
16 5% 11%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vooruit

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 3% 96% Last Result
13 16% 93%  
14 31% 76% Median
15 18% 45%  
16 21% 27%  
17 3% 6%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6%  
20 0% 0%  

Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 0.9% 99.4%  
11 9% 98.6%  
12 45% 89% Median
13 12% 44%  
14 16% 32%  
15 12% 16%  
16 2% 4% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Groen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 2% 99.9%  
3 3% 98%  
4 1.3% 95%  
5 47% 93% Median
6 13% 47%  
7 25% 34%  
8 5% 9%  
9 2% 4%  
10 0.9% 1.4%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 77 76 100% 72–79 72–80 71–80 69–82
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 82 69 99.5% 65–71 64–72 64–73 62–75
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie 58 62 41% 59–65 58–66 57–67 56–68
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 66 56 0.2% 52–58 52–60 51–60 50–62
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 70 54 0% 51–57 50–58 50–59 48–60
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 63 55 0.1% 52–58 51–59 50–59 49–61
Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen 49 49 0% 46–52 45–53 44–54 43–55
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 61 47 0% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams 54 41 0% 38–44 38–45 37–46 36–47
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 47 41 0% 38–44 37–45 37–45 35–47
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 51 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–45 35–46
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen 45 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–40
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 42 33 0% 30–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen 49 32 0% 29–35 29–36 28–37 27–38
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit 31 28 0% 25–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 35 26 0% 24–29 23–30 23–31 22–32
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten 28 27 0% 25–30 24–30 23–31 22–32

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 1.0% 99.5%  
71 3% 98%  
72 7% 96%  
73 9% 89%  
74 13% 80%  
75 14% 68%  
76 17% 53% Median
77 14% 37% Last Result
78 10% 23%  
79 7% 13%  
80 4% 6%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 1.1% 99.5% Majority
64 3% 98%  
65 7% 95%  
66 7% 88%  
67 11% 81% Median
68 17% 69%  
69 22% 53%  
70 13% 31%  
71 8% 18%  
72 5% 10%  
73 3% 5%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0% Last Result

Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 4% 97% Last Result
59 8% 93%  
60 12% 85%  
61 15% 74%  
62 18% 58% Median
63 14% 41% Majority
64 12% 26%  
65 7% 15%  
66 5% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.6%  
52 6% 96%  
53 9% 90%  
54 12% 80%  
55 13% 69% Median
56 17% 56%  
57 20% 39%  
58 10% 19%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.2% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 6% 98%  
51 6% 92%  
52 11% 86%  
53 19% 75% Median
54 14% 56%  
55 15% 43%  
56 13% 28%  
57 9% 15%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0% Majority
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 4% 97%  
52 9% 93%  
53 13% 84% Median
54 16% 71%  
55 16% 55%  
56 13% 39%  
57 14% 26%  
58 7% 12%  
59 3% 5%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
64 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 4% 97%  
46 8% 94%  
47 12% 86% Median
48 14% 74%  
49 16% 60% Last Result
50 14% 44%  
51 12% 30%  
52 10% 18%  
53 5% 8%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.3%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.8%  
43 4% 96%  
44 9% 92%  
45 10% 84% Median
46 18% 73%  
47 18% 55%  
48 16% 38%  
49 10% 21%  
50 6% 12%  
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.7% 99.7%  
37 2% 98.9%  
38 12% 97%  
39 10% 85%  
40 12% 75%  
41 18% 63% Median
42 17% 45%  
43 13% 28%  
44 8% 15%  
45 4% 7%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.2%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 1.3% 99.3%  
37 4% 98%  
38 7% 94%  
39 10% 87%  
40 13% 76% Median
41 26% 63%  
42 16% 38%  
43 8% 21%  
44 6% 13%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 4% 98%  
38 12% 93%  
39 21% 81% Median
40 15% 60%  
41 15% 46%  
42 13% 31%  
43 10% 18%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.6% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.7%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 4% 97%  
31 8% 93%  
32 11% 85%  
33 17% 75% Median
34 17% 58%  
35 16% 41%  
36 13% 25%  
37 6% 12%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 2% 98%  
30 7% 96%  
31 12% 89% Median
32 16% 77%  
33 18% 61%  
34 17% 43%  
35 13% 27%  
36 8% 14%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 4% 99.0%  
29 7% 95%  
30 8% 89%  
31 19% 81% Median
32 17% 62%  
33 14% 45%  
34 14% 31%  
35 9% 17%  
36 5% 8%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.1%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.1%  
25 7% 97%  
26 12% 90%  
27 15% 78%  
28 18% 63% Median
29 21% 45%  
30 13% 24%  
31 7% 11% Last Result
32 3% 4%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 6% 98%  
24 9% 93%  
25 11% 84%  
26 24% 72% Median
27 20% 48%  
28 10% 28%  
29 10% 17%  
30 4% 8%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 3% 97%  
25 9% 94%  
26 20% 85% Median
27 21% 65%  
28 16% 44% Last Result
29 13% 27%  
30 9% 14%  
31 4% 5%  
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations