Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique and RTBf, 8–18 April 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vlaams Belang |
18.5% |
26.0% |
24.3–27.8% |
23.8–28.3% |
23.4–28.8% |
22.6–29.7% |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie |
24.8% |
20.9% |
19.3–22.6% |
18.9–23.1% |
18.5–23.5% |
17.7–24.3% |
Partij van de Arbeid van België |
5.3% |
12.2% |
11.0–13.6% |
10.6–14.0% |
10.3–14.4% |
9.8–15.1% |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
15.4% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.0% |
10.1–13.4% |
9.8–13.7% |
9.2–14.4% |
Vooruit |
10.1% |
11.5% |
10.3–12.9% |
10.0–13.3% |
9.7–13.6% |
9.1–14.3% |
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
13.1% |
10.4% |
9.3–11.8% |
9.0–12.1% |
8.7–12.5% |
8.2–13.1% |
Groen |
10.1% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Vlaams Belang
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vlaams Belang page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
31 |
4% |
97% |
|
32 |
12% |
93% |
|
33 |
14% |
81% |
|
34 |
14% |
67% |
|
35 |
20% |
53% |
Median |
36 |
19% |
33% |
|
37 |
8% |
15% |
|
38 |
4% |
6% |
|
39 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
25 |
8% |
97% |
|
26 |
15% |
89% |
|
27 |
31% |
73% |
Median |
28 |
16% |
43% |
|
29 |
9% |
26% |
|
30 |
11% |
17% |
|
31 |
5% |
6% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid van België
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid van België page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
40% |
90% |
Median |
15 |
13% |
50% |
|
16 |
11% |
37% |
|
17 |
8% |
25% |
|
18 |
15% |
18% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
12 |
22% |
90% |
|
13 |
9% |
68% |
|
14 |
30% |
59% |
Median |
15 |
18% |
29% |
|
16 |
5% |
11% |
|
17 |
6% |
7% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vooruit
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vooruit page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
4% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
96% |
Last Result |
13 |
16% |
93% |
|
14 |
31% |
76% |
Median |
15 |
18% |
45% |
|
16 |
21% |
27% |
|
17 |
3% |
6% |
|
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
11 |
9% |
98.6% |
|
12 |
45% |
89% |
Median |
13 |
12% |
44% |
|
14 |
16% |
32% |
|
15 |
12% |
16% |
|
16 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Groen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Groen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
3% |
98% |
|
4 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
5 |
47% |
93% |
Median |
6 |
13% |
47% |
|
7 |
25% |
34% |
|
8 |
5% |
9% |
|
9 |
2% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
77 |
76 |
100% |
72–79 |
72–80 |
71–80 |
69–82 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
82 |
69 |
99.5% |
65–71 |
64–72 |
64–73 |
62–75 |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie |
58 |
62 |
41% |
59–65 |
58–66 |
57–67 |
56–68 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit |
66 |
56 |
0.2% |
52–58 |
52–60 |
51–60 |
50–62 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
70 |
54 |
0% |
51–57 |
50–58 |
50–59 |
48–60 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
63 |
55 |
0.1% |
52–58 |
51–59 |
50–59 |
49–61 |
Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen |
49 |
49 |
0% |
46–52 |
45–53 |
44–54 |
43–55 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
61 |
47 |
0% |
44–50 |
43–51 |
42–51 |
41–53 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams |
54 |
41 |
0% |
38–44 |
38–45 |
37–46 |
36–47 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
47 |
41 |
0% |
38–44 |
37–45 |
37–45 |
35–47 |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
51 |
40 |
0% |
38–43 |
37–44 |
37–45 |
35–46 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen |
45 |
34 |
0% |
31–37 |
30–38 |
29–38 |
28–40 |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
42 |
33 |
0% |
30–36 |
30–37 |
29–38 |
28–39 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen |
49 |
32 |
0% |
29–35 |
29–36 |
28–37 |
27–38 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit |
31 |
28 |
0% |
25–31 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
23–33 |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
35 |
26 |
0% |
24–29 |
23–30 |
23–31 |
22–32 |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten |
28 |
27 |
0% |
25–30 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
22–32 |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
70 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
71 |
3% |
98% |
|
72 |
7% |
96% |
|
73 |
9% |
89% |
|
74 |
13% |
80% |
|
75 |
14% |
68% |
|
76 |
17% |
53% |
Median |
77 |
14% |
37% |
Last Result |
78 |
10% |
23% |
|
79 |
7% |
13% |
|
80 |
4% |
6% |
|
81 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
82 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
63 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
Majority |
64 |
3% |
98% |
|
65 |
7% |
95% |
|
66 |
7% |
88% |
|
67 |
11% |
81% |
Median |
68 |
17% |
69% |
|
69 |
22% |
53% |
|
70 |
13% |
31% |
|
71 |
8% |
18% |
|
72 |
5% |
10% |
|
73 |
3% |
5% |
|
74 |
2% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vlaams Belang – Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
58 |
4% |
97% |
Last Result |
59 |
8% |
93% |
|
60 |
12% |
85% |
|
61 |
15% |
74% |
|
62 |
18% |
58% |
Median |
63 |
14% |
41% |
Majority |
64 |
12% |
26% |
|
65 |
7% |
15% |
|
66 |
5% |
7% |
|
67 |
2% |
3% |
|
68 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
51 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
52 |
6% |
96% |
|
53 |
9% |
90% |
|
54 |
12% |
80% |
|
55 |
13% |
69% |
Median |
56 |
17% |
56% |
|
57 |
20% |
39% |
|
58 |
10% |
19% |
|
59 |
5% |
10% |
|
60 |
3% |
5% |
|
61 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
62 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
6% |
98% |
|
51 |
6% |
92% |
|
52 |
11% |
86% |
|
53 |
19% |
75% |
Median |
54 |
14% |
56% |
|
55 |
15% |
43% |
|
56 |
13% |
28% |
|
57 |
9% |
15% |
|
58 |
3% |
7% |
|
59 |
2% |
3% |
|
60 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
50 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
51 |
4% |
97% |
|
52 |
9% |
93% |
|
53 |
13% |
84% |
Median |
54 |
16% |
71% |
|
55 |
16% |
55% |
|
56 |
13% |
39% |
|
57 |
14% |
26% |
|
58 |
7% |
12% |
|
59 |
3% |
5% |
|
60 |
2% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result, Majority |
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid van België – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
45 |
4% |
97% |
|
46 |
8% |
94% |
|
47 |
12% |
86% |
Median |
48 |
14% |
74% |
|
49 |
16% |
60% |
Last Result |
50 |
14% |
44% |
|
51 |
12% |
30% |
|
52 |
10% |
18% |
|
53 |
5% |
8% |
|
54 |
2% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
42 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
43 |
4% |
96% |
|
44 |
9% |
92% |
|
45 |
10% |
84% |
Median |
46 |
18% |
73% |
|
47 |
18% |
55% |
|
48 |
16% |
38% |
|
49 |
10% |
21% |
|
50 |
6% |
12% |
|
51 |
3% |
6% |
|
52 |
2% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
36 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
12% |
97% |
|
39 |
10% |
85% |
|
40 |
12% |
75% |
|
41 |
18% |
63% |
Median |
42 |
17% |
45% |
|
43 |
13% |
28% |
|
44 |
8% |
15% |
|
45 |
4% |
7% |
|
46 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
1.3% |
99.3% |
|
37 |
4% |
98% |
|
38 |
7% |
94% |
|
39 |
10% |
87% |
|
40 |
13% |
76% |
Median |
41 |
26% |
63% |
|
42 |
16% |
38% |
|
43 |
8% |
21% |
|
44 |
6% |
13% |
|
45 |
4% |
6% |
|
46 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
47 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
48 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
37 |
4% |
98% |
|
38 |
12% |
93% |
|
39 |
21% |
81% |
Median |
40 |
15% |
60% |
|
41 |
15% |
46% |
|
42 |
13% |
31% |
|
43 |
10% |
18% |
|
44 |
5% |
8% |
|
45 |
2% |
3% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
30 |
4% |
97% |
|
31 |
8% |
93% |
|
32 |
11% |
85% |
|
33 |
17% |
75% |
Median |
34 |
17% |
58% |
|
35 |
16% |
41% |
|
36 |
13% |
25% |
|
37 |
6% |
12% |
|
38 |
4% |
6% |
|
39 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
41 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
42 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
2% |
98% |
|
30 |
7% |
96% |
|
31 |
12% |
89% |
Median |
32 |
16% |
77% |
|
33 |
18% |
61% |
|
34 |
17% |
43% |
|
35 |
13% |
27% |
|
36 |
8% |
14% |
|
37 |
4% |
6% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten – Groen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
29 |
7% |
95% |
|
30 |
8% |
89% |
|
31 |
19% |
81% |
Median |
32 |
17% |
62% |
|
33 |
14% |
45% |
|
34 |
14% |
31% |
|
35 |
9% |
17% |
|
36 |
5% |
8% |
|
37 |
3% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Vooruit
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
25 |
7% |
97% |
|
26 |
12% |
90% |
|
27 |
15% |
78% |
|
28 |
18% |
63% |
Median |
29 |
21% |
45% |
|
30 |
13% |
24% |
|
31 |
7% |
11% |
Last Result |
32 |
3% |
4% |
|
33 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch en Vlaams – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
|
24 |
9% |
93% |
|
25 |
11% |
84% |
|
26 |
24% |
72% |
Median |
27 |
20% |
48% |
|
28 |
10% |
28% |
|
29 |
10% |
17% |
|
30 |
4% |
8% |
|
31 |
3% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vooruit – Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
3% |
97% |
|
25 |
9% |
94% |
|
26 |
20% |
85% |
Median |
27 |
21% |
65% |
|
28 |
16% |
44% |
Last Result |
29 |
13% |
27% |
|
30 |
9% |
14% |
|
31 |
4% |
5% |
|
32 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): La Libre Belgique and RTBf
- Fieldwork period: 8–18 April 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1016
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.76%