Opinion Poll by Kantar, 1–8 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.6–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
19.8–24.3% |
19.1–25.1% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.4% |
19.0–21.9% |
18.6–22.3% |
18.2–22.6% |
17.6–23.4% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.8–17.4% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.1% |
13.5–18.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
12.0% |
10.9–13.2% |
10.6–13.5% |
10.3–13.9% |
9.8–14.5% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
10.0% |
9.0–11.2% |
8.7–11.5% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.0–12.4% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.2% |
4.8–7.4% |
4.5–7.9% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
4.9–6.6% |
4.7–6.9% |
4.5–7.1% |
4.2–7.5% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.0% |
1.0–2.2% |
0.9–2.3% |
0.8–2.6% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.7–2.4% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.6–1.5% |
0.5–1.6% |
0.4–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
77% |
95% |
Median |
22 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
23 |
16% |
17% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
69% |
99.5% |
Median |
19 |
16% |
31% |
|
20 |
13% |
15% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
80% |
95% |
Median |
16 |
2% |
16% |
|
17 |
12% |
13% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
15% |
100% |
|
11 |
17% |
85% |
|
12 |
67% |
68% |
Median |
13 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
9 |
18% |
99.1% |
|
10 |
78% |
82% |
Median |
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
28% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
70% |
72% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
81% |
98.6% |
Median |
6 |
5% |
18% |
|
7 |
13% |
13% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
21% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
78% |
79% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
27% |
100% |
|
1 |
73% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
80% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
20% |
20% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
29% |
100% |
|
1 |
71% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
82% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
23 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
18–23 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
12 |
0% |
11–12 |
11–12 |
11–12 |
10–12 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
12 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–12 |
10–13 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
66% |
99.9% |
Median |
24 |
5% |
34% |
|
25 |
14% |
28% |
|
26 |
14% |
15% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
77% |
95% |
Median |
22 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
23 |
16% |
17% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
18% |
98% |
|
12 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
13 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-08-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
15% |
100% |
|
11 |
17% |
85% |
|
12 |
67% |
68% |
Median |
13 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–8 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1287
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.04%