Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.4% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 20–24 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 21–23 October 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| 17–20 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
4.8% | 4.2–5.5% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.9–5.8% | 3.7–6.2% |
| 14–20 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% |
| 13–17 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.8–7.1% |
| 10–13 October 2025 | YouGov | 5.7% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.2% |
| 10–13 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 7–13 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 26 September–10 October 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5.5% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% |
| 7 October 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5.3% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–7.0% |
| 2–6 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% |
| 30 September–6 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ipsos | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| 29 September–2 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 29 September–1 October 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
5.4% | 4.7–6.3% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.0–7.3% |
| 29 September–1 October 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.2–7.6% |
| 26–29 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.0% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 24–29 September 2025 | GMS | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 23–29 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% |
| 22–26 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.0% | 4.6–5.8% | 4.4–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% |
| 16–22 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 15–19 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.8–7.1% |
| 16–18 September 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 5–17 September 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 12–15 September 2025 | YouGov | 5.4% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.1–7.0% |
| 12–15 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% |
| 9–15 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 8–12 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.8–7.1% |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Verian | 5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% |
| 5–8 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.0% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% |
| 2–8 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.2% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.7% |
| 5–7 September 2025 | Ipsos | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–5 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–4 September 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.6% |
| 2 September 2025 | pollytix | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| 1–2 September 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.5% |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| 26 August–1 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.8% |
| 25–29 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 22–25 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.5% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 19–25 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.2% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 18–22 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–18 August 2025 | YouGov | 5.7% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.2% |
| 15–18 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
4.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 12–18 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 11–15 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 1–14 August 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
| 11–13 August 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 6–12 August 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% |
| 8–11 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.0% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% |
| 5–11 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.5% |
| 3–8 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–6 August 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% |
| 1–4 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 5.2–6.5% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.6–7.3% |
| 29 July–4 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 1–3 August 2025 | Ipsos | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 28 July–1 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 23–29 July 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5.7% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| 25–28 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.0% | 5.2–6.5% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.6–7.3% |
| 22–28 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.5% | 4.9–6.1% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.8% |
| 21–25 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 22–24 July 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 18–21 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–21 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 14–18 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–16 July 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| 11–14 July 2025 | YouGov | 5.7% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.2% |
| 11–14 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–14 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–11 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| 4–7 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–7 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% |
| 4–5 July 2025 | Ipsos | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.3–7.9% |
| 30 June–2 July 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.8–8.3% |
| 27–30 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 5.2–6.6% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.4% |
| 26–30 June 2025 | GMS | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 24–30 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.9% | 5.2–6.6% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% |
| 23–27 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| 24–26 June 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.5–8.1% |
| 20–23 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–20 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.3–7.9% |
| 17–20 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.9% | 5.3–6.6% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.4% |
| 11–17 June 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.7% |
| 13–16 June 2025 | YouGov | 5.9% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% |
| 13–16 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 10–16 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.9% | 5.3–6.5% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% |
| 10–13 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 1–12 June 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| 6–10 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 3–6 June 2025 | Forsa | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| 3–5 June 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.6% |
| 2–3 June 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.6–8.0% |
| 28 May–2 June 2025 | pollytix | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| 30 May–2 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 5.0–6.3% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.4–7.1% |
| 27 May–2 June 2025 | Forsa | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–6.9% | 4.3–7.3% |
| 30 May–1 June 2025 | Ipsos | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 23–26 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–26 May 2025 | Forsa | 5.4% | 4.8–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 19–23 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 20–22 May 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.4% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 3.9–7.4% |
| 14–20 May 2025 | Verian | 5.4% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.2% |
| 16–19 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–19 May 2025 | GMS | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 13–19 May 2025 | Forsa | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 12–16 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.4% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 3–14 May 2025 | Allensbach | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 9–12 May 2025 | YouGov | 5.7% | 5.0–6.4% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.4–7.1% |
| 9–12 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 4.5% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 5–12 May 2025 | Forsa | 5.3% | 4.8–5.8% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.4% |
| 9–10 May 2025 | Ipsos | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 5–9 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 May 2025 | Infratest dimap | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.5% |
| 2–5 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.6–5.8% | 4.4–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% |
| 28 April–2 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Forsa | 5.2% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% |
| 28–30 April 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 25–28 April 2025 | YouGov | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 25–28 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 22–28 April 2025 | Forsa | 5.1% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 22–25 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.8–7.1% |
| 15–22 April 2025 | Verian | 5.4% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.2% |
| 17–22 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 14–17 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.8–7.1% |
| 15–17 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% |
| 13–15 April 2025 | pollytix | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| 11–14 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | 4.7–6.1% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.2–6.8% |
| 8–14 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.1–6.7% |
| 7–11 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–10 April 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 28 March–9 April 2025 | Allensbach | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| 4–7 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.5% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% |
| 2–7 April 2025 | GMS | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| 1–7 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 4–5 April 2025 | Ipsos | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 31 March–4 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.1% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 2 April 2025 | Infratest dimap | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.0–7.3% |
| 28–31 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% |
| 25–31 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| 24–28 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–25 March 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5.6% | 4.9–6.5% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.4% |
| 21–24 March 2025 | YouGov | 5.4% | 4.8–6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.2–6.9% |
| 21–24 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6.0% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.5–7.2% |
| 18–24 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.5% | 4.9–6.1% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.8% |
| 17–21 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.1–7.6% |
| 18–20 March 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| 14–17 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% |
| 10–14 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 March 2025 | Allensbach | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 7–10 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–7 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–6 March 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 March 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.6–8.0% |
| 28 February–3 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24 February–3 March 2025 | Forsa | 5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31–2 March 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February–1 March 2025 | Ipsos | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 24–28 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.6–8.5% |
| 21–22 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–21 February 2025 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 17–20 February 2025 | YouGov | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.1–7.4% | 4.8–7.8% |
| 19–20 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5.9% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.4–7.7% |
| 17–20 February 2025 | Forsa | 6.1% | 5.5–6.8% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% |
| 9–20 February 2025 | Allensbach | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–9.0% |
| 12–19 February 2025 | Ipsos | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| 18–19 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.1–7.8% |
| 16–19 February 2025 | GMS | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.7% |
| 16–18 February 2025 | Cluster17 | 6.3% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% |
| 14–17 February 2025 | YouGov | 5.7% | 5.1–6.4% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% |
| 14–17 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 February 2025 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.7% |
| 10–14 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.3% |
| 11–13 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.2–7.6% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 11–12 February 2025 | pollytix | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.9% |
| 10–12 February 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.7% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.2–8.5% |
| 12 February 2025 | Allensbach | 6.7% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–8.9% |
| 27–11 February 2025 | Allensbach FAZ |
6.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–10 February 2025 | YouGov | 6.1% | 5.5–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.9–7.6% |
| 7–10 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.2% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| 4–10 February 2025 | Forsa | 6.1% | 5.5–6.8% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.5% |
| 3–7 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–7 February 2025 | GMS | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 5–6 February 2025 | pollytix | 6.3% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.9–8.1% |
| 4–6 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% |
| 3–5 February 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 4 February 2025 | YouGov | 6.1% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| 3 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 5.6–7.0% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.0–7.8% |
| 3 February 2025 | Forsa | 5.9% | 5.3–6.5% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% |
| 30–31 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 30–31 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 30 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 January 2025 | Democracy Institute | 5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% |
| 27–29 January 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.3% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% |
| 27–29 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.6–7.9% |
| 22–28 January 2025 | Verian | 6.3% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | YouGov | 6.1% | 5.4–6.9% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.7% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| 21–27 January 2025 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.7% |
| 20–24 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 21–23 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.8–8.2% |
| 17–20 January 2025 | YouGov | 5.8% | 5.2–6.6% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.5–7.4% |
| 17–20 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 5.5–6.9% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% |
| 14–20 January 2025 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 7–19 January 2025 | Allensbach | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 16–18 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 13–17 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.4% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.6–8.1% |
| 10–14 January 2025 | YouGov | 6.2% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.8% |
| 10–13 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–13 January 2025 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 6–10 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.7–8.3% |
| 7–9 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.2% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.5% | 5.0–7.7% | 4.6–8.3% |
| 6–8 January 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.4% |
| 3–6 January 2025 | YouGov | 6.1% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.8–7.6% |
| 3–6 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 2–6 January 2025 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| 2–4 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 3 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 January 2025 | GMS | 6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 27–30 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 23–27 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 17–20 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.7% |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–8.9% |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.7% |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 7.6% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.6–10.0% |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.1–8.7% |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 6.2% | 5.6–7.0% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.8% |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.2–7.6% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.4% |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.5% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.4–8.3% |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.6–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.6% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.5% | 6.1–7.7% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.8% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | 6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.1% | 6.3–8.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.5–9.1% |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 7.5% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.8% |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 6.7% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.3–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.2% |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.1% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 7.5% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.8% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 6.7% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.8–8.3% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.2–9.1% |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.2% | 5.6–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.0–8.8% |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 6.8% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.1–8.7% |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 6.6% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.4% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–7.9% |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.8% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–8.9% |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.5% | 4.9–7.9% |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.8% |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 49% | 89% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 35% | 40% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 5% | 5% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 20–24 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–23 October 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 17–20 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 14–20 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 13–17 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 10–13 October 2025 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 10–13 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 7–13 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 26 September–10 October 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 7 October 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 2–6 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 30 September–6 October 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ipsos | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 29 September–2 October 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 29 September–1 October 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 29 September–1 October 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 26–29 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 24–29 September 2025 | GMS | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 23–29 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 22–26 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 19–22 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 16–22 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 15–19 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 16–18 September 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 5–17 September 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 12–15 September 2025 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 12–15 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–15 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 8–12 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 3–9 September 2025 | Verian | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 5–8 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 2–8 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 5–7 September 2025 | Ipsos | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 1–5 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 2–4 September 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 2 September 2025 | pollytix | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 1–2 September 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 26 August–1 September 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 25–29 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 22–25 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 19–25 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 18–22 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 15–18 August 2025 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 15–18 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 12–18 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 11–15 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 1–14 August 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 11–13 August 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 6–12 August 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 8–11 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 5–11 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 3–8 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–6 August 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 1–4 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 29 July–4 August 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 1–3 August 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 28 July–1 August 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 23–29 July 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 25–28 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 22–28 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–25 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 22–24 July 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 18–21 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 15–21 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 14–18 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 4–16 July 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 11–14 July 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 11–14 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 8–14 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
|||||
| 7–11 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 4–7 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–7 July 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 4–5 July 2025 | Ipsos | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 30 June–4 July 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 30 June–2 July 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 27–30 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 26–30 June 2025 | GMS | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 24–30 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 23–27 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 24–26 June 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 20–23 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 16–20 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 17–20 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 11–17 June 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 13–16 June 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 13–16 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 10–16 June 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 10–13 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 1–12 June 2025 | Allensbach Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung |
5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
| 6–10 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–6 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 3–6 June 2025 | Forsa | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 3–5 June 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 2–3 June 2025 | Infratest dimap | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 28 May–2 June 2025 | pollytix | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 30 May–2 June 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 27 May–2 June 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 30 May–1 June 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 23–26 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 20–26 May 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 19–23 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 20–22 May 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 14–20 May 2025 | Verian | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 16–19 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 14–19 May 2025 | GMS | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 13–19 May 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 12–16 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 3–14 May 2025 | Allensbach | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 9–12 May 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 9–12 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 5–12 May 2025 | Forsa | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 9–10 May 2025 | Ipsos | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 5–9 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–6 May 2025 | Infratest dimap | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 2–5 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 28 April–2 May 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 28–30 April 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 25–28 April 2025 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 25–28 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 22–28 April 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 22–25 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 15–22 April 2025 | Verian | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 17–22 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 14–17 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 15–17 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 13–15 April 2025 | pollytix | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 11–14 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 8–14 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 7–11 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 8–10 April 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 28 March–9 April 2025 | Allensbach | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 4–7 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 2–7 April 2025 | GMS | 6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 1–7 April 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 4–5 April 2025 | Ipsos | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 31 March–4 April 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 2 April 2025 | Infratest dimap | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 28–31 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 25–31 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 24–28 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 19–25 March 2025 | Verian FOCUS |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 21–24 March 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 21–24 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 18–24 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 17–21 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 18–20 March 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen ZDF |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 14–17 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 11–17 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 10–14 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov BILD |
|||||
| 11 March 2025 | Allensbach | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 7–10 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–10 March 2025 | Forsa RTL n-tv |
|||||
| 3–7 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–6 March 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 4–5 March 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 28 February–3 March 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 24 February–3 March 2025 | Forsa | |||||
| 31–2 March 2025 | Infratest dimap ARD |
|||||
| 28 February–1 March 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 24–28 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 21–22 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 19–21 February 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–9 |
| 17–20 February 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–8 |
| 19–20 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 17–20 February 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–20 February 2025 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 12–19 February 2025 | Ipsos | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 18–19 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 16–19 February 2025 | GMS | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 16–18 February 2025 | Cluster17 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 14–17 February 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| 14–17 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 11–17 February 2025 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 10–14 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 11–13 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 11–12 February 2025 | pollytix | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 10–12 February 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 12 February 2025 | Allensbach | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 27–11 February 2025 | Allensbach FAZ |
|||||
| 7–10 February 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 7–10 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 4–10 February 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–7 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–7 February 2025 | GMS | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 5–6 February 2025 | pollytix | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 4–6 February 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| 3–5 February 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 4 February 2025 | YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3 February 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 |
| 3 February 2025 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 30–31 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 30–31 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 30 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 28–30 January 2025 | Democracy Institute | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 27–29 January 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 27–29 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 22–28 January 2025 | Verian | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 21–27 January 2025 | Forsa | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 20–24 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 21–23 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 17–20 January 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 17–20 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 14–20 January 2025 | Forsa | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 7–19 January 2025 | Allensbach | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 16–18 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 13–17 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 10–14 January 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 10–13 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 7–13 January 2025 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 6–10 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 7–9 January 2025 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 6–8 January 2025 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 3–6 January 2025 | YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–6 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–6 January 2025 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 2–4 January 2025 | Ipsos | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 3 January 2025 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2 January 2025 | GMS | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 27–30 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 23–27 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 20–23 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 17–20 December 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–8 |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 6 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | |||||
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | |||||
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 65% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 23% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |