Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.7% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.7% |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–8.9% |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.7% |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 7.6% | 6.6–8.7% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.6–10.0% |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.1–8.7% |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 6.2% | 5.6–7.0% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.8% |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 6.7% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.8% | 6.2–7.6% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.8–8.0% | 5.5–8.4% |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.4–8.3% |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.6–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.6% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.8% | 6.3–7.5% | 6.1–7.7% | 6.0–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.8% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 6.0–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | 6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.1% | 6.3–8.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.5–9.1% |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–7.9% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.2–8.6% |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.5% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.2% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 7.5% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.3–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.8% |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 6.7% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.3–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.6% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.2% |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.5% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.2–8.1% | 4.8–8.7% |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.0% |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 5.9–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 7.2% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 7.5% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.2–9.0% | 6.0–9.3% | 5.6–9.8% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 6.7% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 7.0% | 6.3–7.7% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.8–8.3% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.2–9.1% |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7.0% | 6.1–7.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | 6.1–7.4% | 6.0–7.6% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.4% | 5.8–7.2% | 5.6–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | 5.9–7.2% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.7% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.3% | 5.0–8.8% |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 6.5% | 5.8–7.3% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | 6.3–7.8% | 6.1–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 6.8% | 5.8–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.7% | 5.9–7.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.1–8.7% |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 6.6% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.4% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–7.9% |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.8% |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | 5.7–7.1% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.8% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–8.9% |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 6.5% | 5.8–7.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.4–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 6.3% | 5.6–7.1% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.5% | 4.9–7.9% |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6.5% | 5.7–7.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–8.0% | 4.9–8.5% |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.8% |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa | 6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 36% | 96% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 41% | 59% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 15% | 18% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–8 |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–7 |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 6 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | |||||
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | |||||
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 25% | 90% | |
| 7 | 56% | 65% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 9% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |