Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 25.1% | 23.1–28.1% | 22.6–29.0% | 22.3–29.7% | 21.6–30.9% |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.8–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24.5% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.1% | 21.3–27.9% |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26.0% | 24.5–27.6% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.8–28.5% | 23.1–29.2% |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 24.4% | 23.0–25.9% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.3–26.7% | 21.6–27.5% |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | 22.6–24.8% | 22.3–25.1% | 22.0–25.4% | 21.5–25.9% |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 28.4% | 26.7–30.3% | 26.2–30.8% | 25.7–31.3% | 24.9–32.2% |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26.1% | 24.5–27.8% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.7–28.7% | 22.9–29.5% |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 25.2% | 23.7–26.8% | 23.3–27.3% | 23.0–27.7% | 22.3–28.5% |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 23.5% | 22.2–24.8% | 21.9–25.1% | 21.6–25.5% | 21.0–26.1% |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.5% | 24.3–26.8% | 23.9–27.2% | 23.6–27.5% | 23.1–28.1% |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 26.9% | 25.1–28.7% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.6% |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 25.3% | 24.2–26.4% | 23.9–26.7% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.1–27.6% |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.8–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 25.3% | 23.8–26.8% | 23.4–27.2% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.4–28.3% |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.7% | 24.4–26.9% | 24.1–27.3% | 23.8–27.6% | 23.2–28.3% |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 25.3% | 24.2–26.4% | 23.9–26.7% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.1–27.6% |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.3–27.4% | 22.9–27.8% | 22.2–28.6% |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25.2% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.2–27.4% | 22.8–27.8% | 22.1–28.6% |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26.0% | 24.5–27.6% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.7–28.5% | 23.0–29.2% |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.2% | 24.0–26.5% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.4–27.2% | 22.8–27.8% |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 26.0% | 24.9–27.2% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.4–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 29.2% | 27.4–31.0% | 26.9–31.6% | 26.5–32.0% | 25.7–32.9% |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 25.8% | 24.5–27.2% | 24.2–27.6% | 23.8–27.9% | 23.2–28.5% |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.7% | 24.6–26.7% | 24.4–27.0% | 24.1–27.3% | 23.6–27.8% |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 26.1% | 25.0–27.2% | 24.6–27.6% | 24.4–27.8% | 23.9–28.4% |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26.9% | 25.2–28.7% | 24.7–29.2% | 24.3–29.6% | 23.5–30.5% |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.4% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.7% |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | 25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | 26.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26.9% | 25.3–28.5% | 24.9–28.9% | 24.5–29.3% | 23.8–30.1% |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 25.3% | 23.9–26.8% | 23.5–27.2% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.4–28.3% |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 23.3–25.8% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.1–27.1% |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 25.3% | 24.0–26.6% | 23.7–26.9% | 23.4–27.3% | 22.8–27.9% |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.5% | 22.3–24.7% | 22.0–25.1% | 21.7–25.4% | 21.1–26.0% |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.8% |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24.5% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.4–26.7% | 22.0–27.1% | 21.3–28.0% |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 23.3–25.7% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.1–27.0% |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 28.1% | 26.4–30.0% | 25.9–30.5% | 25.5–31.0% | 24.7–31.9% |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 24.5% | 23.0–26.0% | 22.6–26.5% | 22.2–26.9% | 21.5–27.6% |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 25.3% | 24.0–26.6% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.3–27.4% | 22.7–28.0% |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.3–25.8% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.1–27.0% |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.9–27.3% | 21.1–28.2% |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.2–27.0% | 21.5–27.8% |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 24.4% | 23.0–25.9% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.3–26.7% | 21.6–27.5% |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.9% | 23.7–26.2% | 23.3–26.5% | 23.0–26.8% | 22.5–27.4% |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24.5% | 22.9–26.2% | 22.4–26.6% | 22.1–27.1% | 21.3–27.9% |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.5% | 24.3–26.8% | 24.0–27.2% | 23.7–27.5% | 23.1–28.1% |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 25.3% | 24.2–26.4% | 23.9–26.7% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.1–27.6% |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 26.0% | 24.8–27.3% | 24.4–27.6% | 24.1–28.0% | 23.5–28.6% |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 26.8% | 25.1–28.7% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.7% | 23.4–30.6% |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 26.0% | 24.5–27.7% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.9–29.4% |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 28.0% | 26.3–29.9% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.5–31.8% |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 25.3% | 24.0–26.7% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.3–27.4% | 22.7–28.0% |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 26.0% | 24.9–27.2% | 24.6–27.5% | 24.4–27.8% | 23.8–28.4% |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26.1% | 24.5–27.8% | 24.0–28.3% | 23.6–28.7% | 22.9–29.6% |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26.1% | 24.5–27.7% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.7–28.5% | 23.0–29.3% |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 24.5% | 23.0–26.0% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.6–27.5% |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 25.3% | 24.2–26.4% | 23.9–26.7% | 23.6–27.0% | 23.1–27.6% |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 23.3–25.8% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.1–27.1% |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.5–26.6% | 22.1–27.0% | 21.4–27.8% |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.1% | 22.9–25.3% | 22.5–25.7% | 22.3–26.0% | 21.7–26.6% |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.1–25.9% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.8% |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 26.8% | 25.1–28.6% | 24.6–29.2% | 24.2–29.6% | 23.4–30.5% |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25.3% | 23.7–27.0% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.8–27.9% | 22.1–28.7% |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 24.5% | 23.3–25.7% | 22.9–26.1% | 22.6–26.4% | 22.1–27.0% |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.5% | 22.3–24.8% | 22.0–25.1% | 21.7–25.4% | 21.1–26.0% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 25.2% | 23.5–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.9–28.9% |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.8–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 25.2% | 23.7–26.8% | 23.3–27.3% | 23.0–27.7% | 22.3–28.5% |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 24.5% | 23.1–26.0% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.3–26.8% | 21.7–27.5% |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.1% | 22.9–25.3% | 22.5–25.7% | 22.3–26.0% | 21.7–26.6% |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | 22.5–25.0% | 22.2–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 23.7% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.4% | 20.4–27.3% |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | 22.5–24.9% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | 22.5–25.0% | 22.1–25.3% | 21.9–25.6% | 21.3–26.2% |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 25.2% | 23.5–27.1% | 23.0–27.6% | 22.6–28.0% | 21.8–28.9% |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25.3% | 23.7–27.0% | 23.2–27.5% | 22.8–27.9% | 22.1–28.7% |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 24.5% | 23.1–26.0% | 22.7–26.4% | 22.4–26.7% | 21.7–27.5% |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 23.7% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.4% | 20.4–27.3% |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 23.4% | 22.2–24.8% | 21.8–25.2% | 21.5–25.5% | 20.9–26.2% |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 24.5% | 23.0–26.1% | 22.6–26.5% | 22.2–26.9% | 21.5–27.7% |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 24.4% | 22.8–26.2% | 22.3–26.7% | 21.9–27.2% | 21.1–28.1% |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa | 23.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 13% | 96% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 21% | 82% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 25.5–26.5% | 16% | 42% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 11% | 25% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 7% | 14% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 4% | 7% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 24 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–28 |
| 16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 21–26 |
| 17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–27 |
| 16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 25 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| 11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 27 | 26–28 | 26–28 | 26–28 | 25–29 |
| 6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–29 |
| 2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 25 | 25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 23–25 |
| 3 December 2024 | YouGov | 21 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| 2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–26 | 22–27 |
| 2 December 2024 | GMS | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24–25 | 24–27 |
| 2 December 2024 | Forsa | 24 | 24–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 |
| 1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 25 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| 25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–27 |
| 20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 24 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| 22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 24–25 | 24–26 | 24–26 | 23–26 |
| 19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| 18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 22–25 |
| 19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 |
| 18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 24 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–29 |
| 15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 25 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 21–27 |
| 12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 26 | 25–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 |
| 11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 27 | 27–29 | 27–30 | 26–30 | 24–30 |
| 8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 |
| 8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 22–25 |
| 5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25–26 | 24–27 |
| 7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 25 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 22–31 | 22–31 |
| 5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| 7 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 25 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| 1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 26 | 25–26 | 25–27 | 25–27 | 23–27 |
| 23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 25 | 23–25 | 22–27 | 22–27 | 20–27 |
| 25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 26 | 24–26 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| 21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 22–23 | 22–23 | 22–23 | 21–24 |
| 15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| 14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 22–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–27 |
| 15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 |
| 8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| 7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 21 | 21–22 | 21–23 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| 11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 26 | 26–28 | 26–30 | 25–30 | 25–30 |
| 7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–25 |
| 4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| 4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–26 |
| 2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–25 | 20–27 |
| 4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| 1 October 2024 | Verian | 23 | 23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 22–24 |
| 27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 21–27 |
| 24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–25 |
| 23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 21 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| 20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 25 | 24–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 21–27 |
| 17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 |
| 16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–27 |
| 11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 24 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
| 10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 26 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 20–26 | 20–26 |
| 9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24–27 | 23–27 |
| 11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 25 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 25–29 | 23–30 |
| 6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–28 |
| 6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 26 | 26 | 25–26 | 24–26 | 23–27 |
| 6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| 2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 23–24 | 23–24 | 22–24 | 20–25 |
| 3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| 3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 23 | 23–24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–27 |
| 3 September 2024 | Verian | 23 | 22–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| 2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2 September 2024 | Forsa | 24 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 23–25 |
| 26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 21 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–26 |
| 23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| 20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 24 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 |
| 19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 24 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| 16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 22 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 |
| 13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 26 | 24–26 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| 12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–28 |
| 9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 23 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| 9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 21 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 20–25 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–27 | 22–27 |
| 6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–24 |
| 5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 24 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 22–25 |
| 31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–25 |
| 2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22–24 | 22–24 |
| 5 August 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–25 |
| 2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 21 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 |
| 2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 23 | 23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 21–24 |
| 23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 23 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| 22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 23 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 |
| 12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 |
| 3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 23 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| 5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 22 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 20–25 | 20–25 |
| 1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 3 July 2024 | YouGov | 22 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 21–24 |
| 1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 22–24 |
| 1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 23 | 22–23 | 22–23 | 22–24 | 20–25 |
| 11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
| 10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | |||||
| 10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
| 5–11 June 2024 | Verian | |||||
| 7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
| 4–10 June 2024 | Forsa |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 21 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 10% | 90% | |
| 23 | 23% | 80% | |
| 24 | 23% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 33% | |
| 26 | 10% | 22% | |
| 27 | 9% | 12% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |