Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 25.8% 24.2–27.5% 23.8–28.1% 23.4–28.6% 22.6–29.6%
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.2% 24.0–26.5% 23.7–26.9% 23.4–27.2% 22.8–27.8%
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 26.0% 24.9–27.2% 24.6–27.5% 24.4–27.8% 23.8–28.4%
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 25.8% 24.5–27.2% 24.2–27.6% 23.8–27.9% 23.2–28.5%
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.7% 24.6–26.7% 24.4–27.0% 24.1–27.3% 23.6–27.8%
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 26.1% 25.0–27.2% 24.6–27.6% 24.4–27.8% 23.9–28.4%
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 26.9% 25.2–28.7% 24.7–29.2% 24.3–29.6% 23.5–30.5%
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.7%
7 November 2024 Forsa 25.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 November 2024 Forsa 26.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 26.9% 25.3–28.5% 24.9–28.9% 24.5–29.3% 23.8–30.1%
23–29 October 2024 Verian 25.3% 23.9–26.8% 23.5–27.2% 23.1–27.6% 22.4–28.3%
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 23.0–26.1% 22.7–26.4% 22.1–27.1%
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 25.3% 24.0–26.6% 23.7–26.9% 23.4–27.3% 22.8–27.9%
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.5% 22.3–24.7% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.8%
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.4–26.7% 22.0–27.1% 21.3–28.0%
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 23.3–25.7% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7%
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
11 October 2024 Allensbach 28.1% 26.4–30.0% 25.9–30.5% 25.5–31.0% 24.7–31.9%
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 24.5% 23.0–26.0% 22.6–26.5% 22.2–26.9% 21.5–27.6%
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 25.3% 24.0–26.6% 23.6–27.0% 23.3–27.4% 22.7–28.0%
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 23.0–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.2–27.0% 21.5–27.8%
1 October 2024 Verian 24.4% 23.0–25.9% 22.6–26.4% 22.3–26.7% 21.6–27.5%
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.9% 23.7–26.2% 23.3–26.5% 23.0–26.8% 22.5–27.4%
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7%
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24.5% 22.9–26.2% 22.4–26.6% 22.1–27.1% 21.3–27.9%
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.5% 24.3–26.8% 24.0–27.2% 23.7–27.5% 23.1–28.1%
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 25.3% 24.2–26.4% 23.9–26.7% 23.6–27.0% 23.1–27.6%
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.6% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.6%
11–16 September 2024 GMS 26.8% 25.1–28.7% 24.6–29.2% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.6%
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7%
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 26.0% 24.5–27.7% 24.0–28.2% 23.6–28.6% 22.9–29.4%
11 September 2024 Allensbach 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 25.3% 24.0–26.7% 23.6–27.0% 23.3–27.4% 22.7–28.0%
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 26.0% 24.9–27.2% 24.6–27.5% 24.4–27.8% 23.8–28.4%
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26.1% 24.5–27.8% 24.0–28.3% 23.6–28.7% 22.9–29.6%
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 26.1% 24.5–27.7% 24.1–28.1% 23.7–28.5% 23.0–29.3%
3 September 2024 Verian 24.5% 23.0–26.0% 22.6–26.4% 22.3–26.8% 21.6–27.5%
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 September 2024 Forsa 25.3% 24.2–26.4% 23.9–26.7% 23.6–27.0% 23.1–27.6%
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 23.0–26.1% 22.7–26.4% 22.1–27.1%
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7%
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% 22.9–26.1% 22.5–26.6% 22.1–27.0% 21.4–27.8%
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.1% 22.9–25.3% 22.5–25.7% 22.3–26.0% 21.7–26.6%
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 24.5% 23.4–25.6% 23.1–25.9% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.8%
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 26.8% 25.1–28.6% 24.6–29.2% 24.2–29.6% 23.4–30.5%
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25.3% 23.7–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.8–27.9% 22.1–28.7%
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 24.5% 23.3–25.7% 22.9–26.1% 22.6–26.4% 22.1–27.0%
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.5% 22.3–24.8% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
6–12 August 2024 GMS 25.2% 23.5–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.6–28.0% 21.9–28.9%
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 23.7% 22.5–24.9% 22.1–25.3% 21.8–25.6% 21.3–26.2%
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 25.2% 23.7–26.8% 23.3–27.3% 23.0–27.7% 22.3–28.5%
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 24.5% 23.1–26.0% 22.7–26.4% 22.3–26.8% 21.7–27.5%
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.0% 22.9–25.3% 22.5–25.7% 22.3–26.0% 21.7–26.6%
5 August 2024 Forsa 23.7% 22.5–25.0% 22.2–25.3% 21.9–25.6% 21.3–26.2%
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% 22.5–24.9% 22.1–25.3% 21.9–25.6% 21.3–26.2%
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 23.7% 22.5–25.0% 22.1–25.3% 21.9–25.6% 21.3–26.2%
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 July 2024 Forsa 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 25.2% 23.5–27.1% 23.0–27.6% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–15 July 2024 Forsa 25.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25.3% 23.7–27.0% 23.2–27.5% 22.8–27.9% 22.1–28.7%
3–9 July 2024 Verian 24.5% 23.1–26.0% 22.7–26.4% 22.4–26.7% 21.7–27.5%
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–8 July 2024 Forsa 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 23.7% 22.0–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.4–27.3%
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 July 2024 YouGov 23.4% 22.2–24.8% 21.8–25.2% 21.5–25.5% 20.9–26.2%
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 24.5% 23.0–26.1% 22.6–26.5% 22.2–26.9% 21.5–27.7%
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 July 2024 Forsa 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–24 June 2024 Forsa 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–17 June 2024 GMS 24.4% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7% 21.9–27.2% 21.1–28.1%
11–17 June 2024 Forsa 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach 25.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–11 June 2024 Verian 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 23.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–10 June 2024 Forsa 23.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0.4% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 3% 99.5%  
23.5–24.5% 12% 97%  
24.5–25.5% 26% 85%  
25.5–26.5% 31% 58% Median
26.5–27.5% 18% 28%  
27.5–28.5% 7% 9%  
28.5–29.5% 2% 3%  
29.5–30.5% 0.4% 0.5%  
30.5–31.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
31.5–32.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 25 23–26 22–27 22–28 21–31
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25 22–26 21–27 21–27 21–27
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 25 25–26 24–26 24–27 23–27
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 26 23–26 23–26 23–26 23–26
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 25 25 24–25 24–25 22–25
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 25 25 25 25–26 24–27
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 25 24–28 24–28 22–31 22–31
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–28
7 November 2024 Forsa          
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4 November 2024 Forsa          
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 25 22–25 21–25 21–26 21–27
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 26 25–26 25–27 25–27 23–27
23–29 October 2024 Verian 25 23–25 22–27 22–27 20–27
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 23 22–24 22–25 22–25 22–25
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 26 24–26 24–26 23–26 22–26
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 23 22–23 22–23 22–23 21–24
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 22 21–24 21–24 21–24 21–25
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24 22–24 21–24 21–25 21–27
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–25
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 24 23–24 23–24 22–24 22–25
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 23 21–23 21–24 21–24 21–25
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 21 21–22 21–23 21–25 20–25
11 October 2024 Allensbach 26 26–28 26–30 25–30 25–30
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 23 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–25
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 25 25 25 25 25
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 23 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–26
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 22 20–24 20–24 20–25 20–27
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 25 21–25 21–25 21–26 21–27
1 October 2024 Verian 23 23 22–23 22–24 22–24
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25 24–26 23–27 22–27 21–27
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 23 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–25
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21 21–27 21–27 21–27 21–27
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 25 24–26 23–26 23–26 21–27
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 23 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 23 23–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
11–16 September 2024 GMS 24 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–29
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 26 23–26 22–26 20–26 20–26
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 24 24 24 24–27 23–27
11 September 2024 Allensbach 25 25–28 25–28 25–29 23–30
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 25 23–26 23–26 23–26 22–28
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 26 26 25–26 24–26 23–27
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 25 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 23 23–24 23–24 22–24 20–25
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 24 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 23 23–24 23–25 23–25 23–27
3 September 2024 Verian 23 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–25
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2 September 2024 Forsa 24 24–25 24–25 24–25 23–25
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 21 21–24 21–24 21–25 20–26
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24 22–25 22–26 22–26 22–26
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 24 22–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 24 21–26 21–26 21–26 20–27
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 22 20–23 20–24 20–24 20–24
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 23 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–25
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 26 24–26 23–27 23–28 23–29
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–28
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 23 21–25 21–26 21–26 21–26
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 21 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–25
6–12 August 2024 GMS 27 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–27
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 22 22 22 21–23 20–24
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 24 24–25 24–25 24–25 22–25
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 23 23–25 23–25 22–25 22–25
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 22 22 22 22–24 22–24
5 August 2024 Forsa 23 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 21 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–26
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 23 23 22–23 22–24 21–24
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 23 20–23 20–23 20–24 20–25
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
16–22 July 2024 Forsa          
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 23 21–26 21–26 21–26 20–28
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–15 July 2024 Forsa          
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 25 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–27
3–9 July 2024 Verian 23 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–26
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2–8 July 2024 Forsa          
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 22 22–24 22–25 20–25 20–25
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3 July 2024 YouGov 22 22–24 22–24 22–24 21–24
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 24 24 24 24 22–24
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1 July 2024 Forsa          
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–24 June 2024 Forsa          
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
11–17 June 2024 GMS 23 22–23 22–23 22–24 20–25
11–17 June 2024 Forsa          
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach          
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
5–11 June 2024 Verian          
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4–10 June 2024 Forsa          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 5% 98%  
23 11% 93%  
24 13% 82%  
25 36% 69% Median
26 27% 33%  
27 4% 6%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0% 0.6%  
30 0% 0.6%  
31 0.6% 0.6%  
32 0% 0%