Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 15.6% 14.2–17.0% 13.8–17.5% 13.5–17.8% 12.9–18.6%
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 14.8% 13.8–16.0% 13.5–16.3% 13.3–16.6% 12.8–17.1%
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.5% 14.7–16.4% 14.4–16.6% 14.2–16.8% 13.8–17.3%
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0%
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.2–19.0%
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.2–19.1%
7 November 2024 Forsa 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 November 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.7% 14.1–18.0% 13.5–18.7%
23–29 October 2024 Verian 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.4–18.7%
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0%
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.3% 13.3–19.1%
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0%
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
11 October 2024 Allensbach 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.1–19.0%
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 16.0% 14.7–17.3% 14.4–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.7%
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.8% 13.9–18.4%
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.2% 13.5–18.9%
1 October 2024 Verian 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–19.0%
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
11–16 September 2024 GMS 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.8% 12.2–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
11 September 2024 Allensbach 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.7% 12.0–16.2%
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 14.0% 13.1–14.9% 12.9–15.2% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.9%
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.1–17.1% 12.5–17.8%
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.3–16.8% 13.0–17.2% 12.4–17.9%
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.7% 13.1–17.0% 12.6–17.7%
3 September 2024 Verian 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.6%
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 September 2024 Forsa 14.0% 13.1–14.9% 12.9–15.2% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.9%
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.2%
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.2% 13.5–17.7%
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.1–15.9% 13.8–16.2% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9%
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.1%
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.6–16.9%
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
6–12 August 2024 GMS 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.6–17.7%
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
5 August 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 July 2024 Forsa 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 16.5% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.6–19.7%
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–15 July 2024 Forsa 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.6–16.9%
3–9 July 2024 Verian 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–8 July 2024 Forsa 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 July 2024 YouGov 13.9% 12.8–15.0% 12.5–15.3% 12.3–15.6% 11.8–16.1%
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.7–16.6%
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 July 2024 Forsa 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 14.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–24 June 2024 Forsa 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–17 June 2024 GMS 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
11–17 June 2024 Forsa 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–11 June 2024 Verian 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 15.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–10 June 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0.2% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 2% 99.8%  
13.5–14.5% 15% 97%  
14.5–15.5% 33% 83%  
15.5–16.5% 31% 50% Median
16.5–17.5% 15% 19%  
17.5–18.5% 4% 4%  
18.5–19.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 0%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 15 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 13 12–16 12–16 12–16 12–16
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 14 14–15 14–15 14–15 13–16
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 15 15 15–16 15–16
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 16 16 16 15–16 14–16
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 15 14–16 14–17 13–17 13–19
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
7 November 2024 Forsa          
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4 November 2024 Forsa          
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 15 14–15 14–15 13–16 12–17
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 15 15–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
23–29 October 2024 Verian 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 14–15 13–15 13–16 13–16
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 15 15 15 14–16 14–18
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 16 15–16 15–16 14–16 14–16
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 14–17 14–18 13–20 13–20
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15 13–18 13–18 13–18 12–18
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 16–18 16–18 15–18 14–18
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–16
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 16–18 15–18 14–18 14–18
11 October 2024 Allensbach 16 15–16 14–17 14–17 13–17
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 15 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 16 16 16 16 16
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 15 12–16 12–16 12–18 12–18
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 13–17
1 October 2024 Verian 16 16 16 13–16 13–17
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 14–15 13–15 13–15 13–17
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 15 15–17 14–18 14–18 14–18
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16 15–16 14–17 14–17 13–17
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 13–17
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 14 11–15 11–15 11–15 11–15
11–16 September 2024 GMS 14 12–15 11–15 11–15 10–17
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 13 13–14 13–15 13–16 13–16
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–16
11 September 2024 Allensbach 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 11–18
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 14 13–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 13 13 12–13 12–14 12–15
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 11 11–15 11–15 10–15 9–16
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 14 14 14–15 14–15 13–15
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15 13–16 12–17 12–18 12–18
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 14 14–15 14–15 13–15 13–15
3 September 2024 Verian 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 12–16
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2 September 2024 Forsa 13 12–13 12–13 12–13 12–13
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–18
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 14 13–16 12–16 12–16 12–16
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 14 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 15–16 15–16 14–16 13–17
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 14 12–16 12–16 12–17 12–18
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14 12–14 12–15 12–16 11–17
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 14 12–15 12–16 12–16 12–16
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 13 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
6–12 August 2024 GMS 14 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 14 14–15 14–15 14–15 13–15
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 16 15–16 14–16 14–16 14–18
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 14 14 14 13–14 13–14
5 August 2024 Forsa 15 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 12 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–16
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 15 14–15 14–15 14–15 13–16
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 14 14–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
16–22 July 2024 Forsa          
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–20
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–15 July 2024 Forsa          
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13 11–15 11–15 11–15 11–16
3–9 July 2024 Verian 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2–8 July 2024 Forsa          
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 16 12–16 12–16 12–16 12–16
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3 July 2024 YouGov 13 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–16
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 15 15 15 13–15 13–16
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1 July 2024 Forsa          
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–24 June 2024 Forsa          
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
11–17 June 2024 GMS 13 13–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
11–17 June 2024 Forsa          
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach          
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
5–11 June 2024 Verian          
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4–10 June 2024 Forsa          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 8% 96%  
14 25% 87%  
15 38% 62% Median
16 21% 24%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%