Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 8–10 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.6–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.5–22.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.1% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.3–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 21–28 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 17 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–22 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 14 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 23 | 18% | 96% | |
| 24 | 26% | 78% | |
| 25 | 48% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 60% | 94% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 34% | |
| 19 | 3% | 11% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 47% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 43% | |
| 16 | 19% | 35% | |
| 17 | 5% | 16% | |
| 18 | 10% | 11% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 10% | 86% | |
| 11 | 26% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 47% | 50% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 15% | 100% | |
| 8 | 58% | 85% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 27% | |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 82% | |
| 6 | 63% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 13% | 95% | |
| 6 | 80% | 82% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 27% | 29% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 78% | 81% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 80% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 82% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | |
| 1 | 68% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 2 | 23 | 0% | 22–24 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 25 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 21–28 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 11 | 0% | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 12% | 98% | |
| 23 | 58% | 86% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 28% | |
| 25 | 5% | 9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 23 | 18% | 96% | |
| 24 | 26% | 78% | |
| 25 | 48% | 52% | Median |
| 26 | 3% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 10% | 86% | |
| 11 | 26% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 47% | 50% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 95% | |
| 10 | 55% | 79% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 24% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.33%