Opinion Poll by YouGov, 10–15 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.3% |
20.0–22.6% |
19.7–23.0% |
19.4–23.3% |
18.8–24.0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
21.2% |
20.0–22.6% |
19.6–22.9% |
19.3–23.3% |
18.7–23.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.2% |
16.0–18.4% |
15.7–18.8% |
15.4–19.1% |
14.9–19.7% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
11.1% |
10.2–12.1% |
9.9–12.4% |
9.7–12.7% |
9.2–13.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
9.1% |
8.2–10.1% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.8–10.6% |
7.4–11.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
7.1% |
6.3–7.9% |
6.1–8.2% |
5.9–8.4% |
5.6–8.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.9–7.2% |
4.6–7.6% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.7–2.2% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.8% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.1% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.5% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
17% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
26% |
81% |
|
21 |
37% |
55% |
Median |
22 |
14% |
18% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
43% |
98% |
|
20 |
32% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
19% |
23% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
9% |
98% |
|
16 |
48% |
89% |
Median |
17 |
33% |
41% |
|
18 |
2% |
8% |
|
19 |
6% |
6% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
50% |
95% |
Median |
11 |
30% |
45% |
|
12 |
15% |
15% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
21% |
100% |
|
8 |
36% |
79% |
Median |
9 |
37% |
43% |
|
10 |
6% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
31% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
56% |
68% |
Median |
8 |
11% |
12% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
16% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
37% |
83% |
Median |
7 |
46% |
46% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
60% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
40% |
40% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
16% |
16% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
7% |
100% |
|
1 |
93% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
33% |
100% |
|
1 |
67% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
76% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
24% |
24% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
63% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
37% |
37% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
46% |
46% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
10 |
0% |
10–12 |
9–12 |
9–12 |
9–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–11 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
8–12 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
24 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
14% |
91% |
|
26 |
22% |
77% |
|
27 |
9% |
55% |
Median |
28 |
29% |
46% |
|
29 |
17% |
17% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
43% |
98% |
|
20 |
32% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
19% |
23% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
50% |
95% |
Median |
11 |
30% |
45% |
|
12 |
15% |
15% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-15-YouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
20% |
100% |
|
9 |
35% |
80% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
44% |
|
11 |
19% |
20% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–15 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1659
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%