Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 3–16 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 23.4% | 21.8–25.2% | 21.3–25.7% | 20.9–26.1% | 20.2–27.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.3% | 19.6–23.8% | 19.2–24.2% | 18.4–25.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 13.9–16.8% | 13.5–17.3% | 13.2–17.6% | 12.6–18.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.5–13.5% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 22 | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 20 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 44% | 95% | |
| 22 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 12% | 38% | |
| 24 | 23% | 25% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 18 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 29% | 85% | |
| 20 | 16% | 55% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 39% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 26% | |
| 23 | 24% | 25% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 17% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 27% | 82% | |
| 15 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 32% | |
| 17 | 16% | 16% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 45% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 11 | 12% | 33% | |
| 12 | 20% | 20% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 32% | 89% | |
| 10 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 24% | 25% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 54% | 75% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 21% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 48% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 47% | |
| 7 | 26% | 26% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 65% | 99.5% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 35% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 88% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | |
| 1 | 62% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 60% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 2 | 26 | 0% | 24–28 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–29 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–26 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 11 | 0% | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 10 | 0% | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 23% | 98.5% | |
| 25 | 23% | 76% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 53% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 28 | 34% | 35% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 44% | 95% | |
| 22 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 12% | 38% | |
| 24 | 23% | 25% | |
| 25 | 2% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 39% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 26% | 60% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 34% | |
| 13 | 19% | 21% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 32% | 89% | |
| 10 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 24% | 25% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–16 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1033
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.72%