Opinion Poll by Kantar, 16–22 February 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
26.0% |
24.5–27.5% |
24.1–27.9% |
23.8–28.3% |
23.1–29.1% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
19.6% |
18.3–21.0% |
17.9–21.4% |
17.6–21.7% |
17.0–22.4% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.3% |
15.4–18.7% |
15.1–19.0% |
14.5–19.7% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
10.0% |
9.0–11.1% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.1–12.2% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.1–10.1% |
7.8–10.3% |
7.6–10.6% |
7.2–11.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.4–8.9% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.4% |
4.7–6.3% |
4.5–6.5% |
4.4–6.8% |
4.1–7.2% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.1% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
59% |
98.6% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
40% |
|
25 |
8% |
33% |
|
26 |
22% |
24% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
17 |
29% |
99.5% |
|
18 |
13% |
70% |
|
19 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
20 |
45% |
46% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
40% |
87% |
Median |
16 |
5% |
47% |
|
17 |
37% |
42% |
|
18 |
4% |
5% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
9 |
26% |
96% |
|
10 |
62% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
8% |
8% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
4% |
100% |
|
8 |
19% |
96% |
|
9 |
61% |
76% |
Median |
10 |
15% |
15% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
6% |
100% |
|
6 |
15% |
94% |
|
7 |
37% |
78% |
Median |
8 |
41% |
41% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
69% |
96% |
Median |
6 |
22% |
27% |
|
7 |
5% |
5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-dieparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
49% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
2 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
95% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
67% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
33% |
33% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
57% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
43% |
43% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
23 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–28 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
10 |
0% |
9–10 |
9–11 |
8–11 |
7–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
10 |
0% |
9–11 |
9–11 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
59% |
98.6% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
40% |
|
25 |
8% |
33% |
|
26 |
22% |
24% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
29% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
8% |
71% |
|
24 |
10% |
63% |
Median |
25 |
35% |
53% |
|
26 |
17% |
18% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
9 |
26% |
96% |
|
10 |
62% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
8% |
8% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-02-22-Kantar-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
4% |
100% |
|
9 |
16% |
96% |
|
10 |
65% |
80% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
16% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–22 February 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1432
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.77%