Opinion Poll by Forsa, 8–14 March 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.9–26.2% | 23.6–26.5% | 23.4–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 19.3–21.4% | 19.1–21.7% | 18.8–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.3–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.3–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.1–6.3% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.8% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 24 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–21 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 15% | 98% | |
| 24 | 62% | 83% | Median |
| 25 | 9% | 21% | |
| 26 | 12% | 12% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 6% | 97% | |
| 19 | 41% | 91% | |
| 20 | 29% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 21% | 21% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 41% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 16% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 37% | 43% | |
| 19 | 6% | 6% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 49% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 48% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 31% | 96% | |
| 9 | 51% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 13% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 60% | 99.2% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 39% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 36% | 100% | |
| 5 | 57% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 20% | 20% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.6% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | |
| 1 | 87% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | |
| 1 | 70% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 24 | 0% | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 2 | 25 | 0% | 24–26 | 24–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 15% | 98% | |
| 24 | 62% | 83% | Median |
| 25 | 9% | 21% | |
| 26 | 12% | 12% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 24 | 41% | 97% | |
| 25 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 26 | 46% | 48% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 18% | 97% | |
| 10 | 63% | 79% | Median |
| 11 | 16% | 16% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 49% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 48% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 March 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2502
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.38%