Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 19–22 April 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.5–25.6% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.7–26.4% | 21.0–27.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 18.9–21.8% | 18.5–22.2% | 18.2–22.6% | 17.5–23.3% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.7–19.4% | 16.3–19.8% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.4–20.9% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.6% | 9.4–12.9% | 9.0–13.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.1–11.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.2–7.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.6–2.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 22 | 21–22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 1 | 20 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 1 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 1 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 28% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 62% | 72% | Median |
| 23 | 3% | 9% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 30% | 92% | |
| 19 | 10% | 62% | |
| 20 | 33% | 52% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 19% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 33% | 98% | |
| 17 | 11% | 66% | |
| 18 | 28% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 19% | 27% | |
| 20 | 8% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 39% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 34% | |
| 12 | 8% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 12% | 96% | |
| 9 | 65% | 84% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 20% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 100% | |
| 5 | 47% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 43% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 27% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 42% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 31% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 48% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 70% | 96% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 26% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | |
| 1 | 89% | 91% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 29% | 29% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 38% | 38% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 2 | 25 | 0% | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–28 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 1 | 22 | 0% | 21–22 | 21–24 | 21–24 | 20–26 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ID) | 1 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 2 | 10 | 0% | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 37% | 99.2% | |
| 24 | 12% | 62% | |
| 25 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 26 | 43% | 48% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 28% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 62% | 72% | Median |
| 23 | 3% | 9% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 39% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 27% | 61% | Median |
| 11 | 25% | 34% | |
| 12 | 8% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 18% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 48% | 81% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 33% | |
| 12 | 11% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 April 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1296
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.80%