Opinion Poll by Forsa, 2 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
23.0% |
21.9–24.1% |
21.6–24.4% |
21.4–24.7% |
20.9–25.2% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
19.3–21.4% |
19.0–21.7% |
18.8–22.0% |
18.3–22.5% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
19.0–21.1% |
18.7–21.4% |
18.5–21.6% |
18.0–22.1% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.3–9.8% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.9–10.2% |
7.6–10.6% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.3–9.8% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.9–10.2% |
7.6–10.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.7% |
5.1–6.3% |
5.0–6.5% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.6–7.0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.5% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.1–5.1% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.4–2.1% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.3% |
1.1–2.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–1.9% |
1.2–2.0% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.3% |
0.7–1.4% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–1.0% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
28% |
98% |
|
22 |
40% |
70% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
30% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
100% |
|
18 |
53% |
98% |
Median |
19 |
35% |
45% |
|
20 |
6% |
10% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
14% |
100% |
|
18 |
25% |
86% |
|
19 |
22% |
61% |
Median |
20 |
20% |
40% |
|
21 |
18% |
20% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
25% |
98% |
|
9 |
53% |
73% |
Median |
10 |
19% |
20% |
|
11 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
8 |
51% |
98.9% |
Median |
9 |
43% |
47% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
15% |
100% |
|
5 |
32% |
85% |
|
6 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
7 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
24% |
100% |
|
4 |
67% |
76% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
15% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
84% |
85% |
Median |
3 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
42% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.7% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
|
1 |
79% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
31% |
100% |
|
1 |
69% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
|
1 |
80% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
29% |
29% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
11 |
0% |
10–11 |
9–11 |
9–12 |
8–13 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
8 |
0% |
8–9 |
8–9 |
8–10 |
6–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
33% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
47% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
13% |
20% |
|
26 |
6% |
8% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
28% |
98% |
|
22 |
40% |
70% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
30% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
9 |
7% |
98.5% |
|
10 |
36% |
92% |
|
11 |
51% |
55% |
Median |
12 |
3% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-02-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
8 |
51% |
98.9% |
Median |
9 |
43% |
47% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2508
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.87%