Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.0% |
21.9–24.2% |
21.6–24.6% |
21.3–24.8% |
20.7–25.4% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
21.5% |
20.4–22.7% |
20.1–23.0% |
19.8–23.3% |
19.3–23.9% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.5% |
19.4–21.7% |
19.1–22.0% |
18.8–22.3% |
18.3–22.8% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
11.0% |
10.2–11.9% |
9.9–12.2% |
9.7–12.4% |
9.3–12.8% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.2–9.8% |
8.0–10.1% |
7.8–10.3% |
7.5–10.7% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
4.1–6.0% |
3.9–6.3% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.6–3.5% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.7% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.8–2.1% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.5% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.9% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.6–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.4–0.8% |
0.4–0.9% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.1% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
13% |
97% |
|
22 |
49% |
83% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
34% |
|
24 |
9% |
9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
10% |
100% |
|
19 |
8% |
90% |
|
20 |
54% |
82% |
Median |
21 |
23% |
28% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
11% |
86% |
|
20 |
32% |
74% |
Median |
21 |
39% |
42% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
100% |
|
10 |
21% |
96% |
|
11 |
73% |
75% |
Median |
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
100% |
|
8 |
69% |
97% |
Median |
9 |
24% |
28% |
|
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
4 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
87% |
95% |
Median |
6 |
8% |
8% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
44% |
100% |
|
3 |
46% |
56% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
10% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
4% |
4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
|
1 |
96% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
25% |
100% |
|
1 |
75% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
21% |
100% |
|
1 |
79% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
11 |
0% |
10–11 |
10–11 |
9–11 |
9–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
9–10 |
9–11 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
26 |
10% |
95% |
|
27 |
48% |
84% |
Median |
28 |
24% |
36% |
|
29 |
11% |
12% |
|
30 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
10% |
100% |
|
19 |
8% |
90% |
|
20 |
54% |
82% |
Median |
21 |
23% |
28% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
100% |
|
10 |
21% |
96% |
|
11 |
73% |
75% |
Median |
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-16-INSAandYouGov-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
100% |
|
9 |
67% |
97% |
Median |
10 |
24% |
30% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 2147
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.05%