Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 17–19 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
24.0% |
22.2–25.8% |
21.7–26.4% |
21.3–26.8% |
20.5–27.8% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.3–23.8% |
19.8–24.3% |
19.4–24.8% |
18.6–25.7% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
20.3% |
18.8–22.2% |
18.3–22.7% |
17.9–23.2% |
17.2–24.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
10.0% |
8.9–11.4% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.2–12.2% |
7.7–12.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.7–8.5% |
5.5–8.8% |
5.0–9.4% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.6% |
4.8–6.7% |
4.5–7.1% |
4.3–7.3% |
3.9–7.9% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.8–2.1% |
0.8–2.3% |
0.6–2.7% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.8% |
0.8–2.0% |
0.7–2.2% |
0.5–2.5% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.5–1.3% |
0.4–1.4% |
0.4–1.6% |
0.3–1.9% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–1.0% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.2–1.3% |
0.2–1.6% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.0% |
0.1–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
34% |
97% |
|
22 |
12% |
63% |
|
23 |
34% |
50% |
Median |
24 |
4% |
16% |
|
25 |
9% |
12% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
11% |
96% |
|
21 |
74% |
84% |
Median |
22 |
6% |
10% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
8% |
98% |
|
18 |
9% |
90% |
|
19 |
7% |
80% |
|
20 |
63% |
73% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
10% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
23 |
7% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
28% |
98% |
|
9 |
44% |
71% |
Median |
10 |
18% |
27% |
|
11 |
8% |
9% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
100% |
|
6 |
46% |
92% |
Median |
7 |
15% |
46% |
|
8 |
30% |
31% |
|
9 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
4% |
100% |
|
5 |
19% |
96% |
|
6 |
71% |
77% |
Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
7% |
100% |
|
3 |
42% |
93% |
|
4 |
49% |
51% |
Median |
5 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
62% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
38% |
38% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
81% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
19% |
19% |
|
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
68% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
30% |
30% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
|
1 |
80% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
38% |
100% |
|
1 |
62% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
53% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
15% |
17% |
Last Result |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
26 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–29 |
22–29 |
21–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
7–12 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
7–9 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
6–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
22 |
11% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
2% |
87% |
|
24 |
5% |
86% |
|
25 |
12% |
80% |
|
26 |
59% |
69% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
10% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
29 |
7% |
7% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
11% |
96% |
|
21 |
74% |
84% |
Median |
22 |
6% |
10% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
28% |
98% |
|
9 |
44% |
71% |
Median |
10 |
18% |
27% |
|
11 |
8% |
9% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-19-ForschungsgruppeWahlen-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
8% |
100% |
|
7 |
39% |
92% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
53% |
|
9 |
38% |
40% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–19 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 906
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.33%