Opinion Poll by Forsa, 24–30 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
24.0% |
22.7–25.4% |
22.3–25.8% |
22.0–26.2% |
21.3–26.9% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
22.7% |
21.4–24.1% |
21.0–24.5% |
20.7–24.8% |
20.1–25.5% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
19.0% |
17.8–20.3% |
17.5–20.7% |
17.1–21.0% |
16.6–21.7% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
9.0% |
8.1–10.0% |
7.9–10.2% |
7.7–10.5% |
7.3–11.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.9–8.4% |
5.5–8.8% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.6–7.2% |
5.4–7.4% |
5.2–7.6% |
4.9–8.1% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.4% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–2.0% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.3% |
1.0–1.8% |
0.9–1.9% |
0.9–2.0% |
0.7–2.3% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.6–1.3% |
0.6–1.4% |
0.5–1.5% |
0.4–1.7% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.1% |
0.3–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
22 |
42% |
95% |
|
23 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
24 |
34% |
45% |
|
25 |
2% |
10% |
|
26 |
8% |
8% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
10% |
98% |
|
21 |
57% |
88% |
Median |
22 |
11% |
30% |
|
23 |
16% |
20% |
|
24 |
4% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
26% |
96% |
|
18 |
28% |
71% |
Median |
19 |
39% |
43% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
5% |
100% |
|
8 |
35% |
95% |
|
9 |
31% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
28% |
29% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
48% |
97% |
Median |
7 |
31% |
49% |
|
8 |
18% |
18% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
34% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
46% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
19% |
19% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
3 |
30% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
46% |
69% |
Median |
5 |
23% |
24% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
42% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
16% |
16% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
15% |
100% |
|
1 |
83% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
16% |
100% |
|
1 |
84% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
26% |
100% |
|
1 |
74% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
61% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
39% |
39% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
64% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
36% |
36% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
7–11 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
7–9 |
7–10 |
7–10 |
6–10 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
21% |
94% |
|
27 |
38% |
74% |
Median |
28 |
21% |
36% |
|
29 |
10% |
15% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
26% |
96% |
|
18 |
28% |
71% |
Median |
19 |
39% |
43% |
|
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
5% |
100% |
|
8 |
35% |
95% |
|
9 |
31% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
28% |
29% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-Forsa-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
47% |
98% |
Median |
8 |
28% |
52% |
|
9 |
17% |
24% |
|
10 |
6% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–30 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1583
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.29%