Opinion Poll by GMS, 25–30 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
23.5% |
21.8–25.3% |
21.4–25.8% |
21.0–26.2% |
20.2–27.1% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
22.0% |
20.4–23.7% |
19.9–24.2% |
19.5–24.7% |
18.8–25.5% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.4–21.7% |
18.0–22.2% |
17.6–22.6% |
16.9–23.4% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.4–9.8% |
6.0–10.4% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.1% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.5–8.7% |
5.1–9.3% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.4–8.0% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.8% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.4% |
2.6–5.9% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.6% |
1.3–2.3% |
1.2–2.5% |
1.1–2.7% |
0.9–3.0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.5% |
0.7–2.8% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.7% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–1.1% |
0.2–1.2% |
0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-christlichdemokratischeuniondeutschlandsepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
6% |
93% |
|
22 |
54% |
87% |
Median |
23 |
11% |
33% |
|
24 |
8% |
22% |
|
25 |
13% |
14% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-sozialdemokratischeparteideutschlandssd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
5% |
96% |
|
20 |
15% |
92% |
|
21 |
17% |
77% |
|
22 |
8% |
59% |
|
23 |
49% |
52% |
Median |
24 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-bündnis90diegrünengreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
18 |
26% |
94% |
|
19 |
9% |
68% |
|
20 |
52% |
59% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
6% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-freiedemokratischeparteire.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
48% |
74% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
26% |
|
9 |
11% |
12% |
|
10 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-alternativefürdeutschlandid.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
31% |
92% |
|
7 |
17% |
61% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
44% |
|
9 |
41% |
41% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-christlich-sozialeunioninbayernepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
100% |
|
5 |
55% |
94% |
Median |
6 |
16% |
39% |
|
7 |
20% |
22% |
|
8 |
2% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-dielinkeguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
3 |
58% |
99.8% |
Median |
4 |
34% |
42% |
|
5 |
4% |
8% |
|
6 |
4% |
4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-dieparteini.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
59% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
38% |
41% |
|
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-freiewählerre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
54% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
45% |
46% |
|
3 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-parteimenschumwelttierschutzguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
87% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
11% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-ökologisch-demokratischeparteigreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
|
1 |
53% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-familienparteideutschlandsni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
58% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
42% |
42% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-volteuropagreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
12% |
100% |
|
1 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-seats-pmf-piratenparteideutschlandgreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
78% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
22% |
22% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
27 |
0% |
27–30 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
23 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
18–25 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
8 |
0% |
8–11 |
7–11 |
7–11 |
7–11 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
7 |
0% |
6–9 |
5–9 |
5–9 |
5–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-cdu–csu.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
27 |
51% |
96% |
Median |
28 |
16% |
45% |
|
29 |
4% |
28% |
|
30 |
17% |
25% |
|
31 |
5% |
8% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-spd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
5% |
96% |
|
20 |
15% |
92% |
|
21 |
17% |
77% |
|
22 |
8% |
59% |
|
23 |
49% |
52% |
Median |
24 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-fdp–fw.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
5% |
100% |
|
8 |
63% |
95% |
Median |
9 |
9% |
31% |
|
10 |
11% |
22% |
|
11 |
11% |
11% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2022-05-30-GMS-coalitions-seats-pmf-afd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
31% |
92% |
|
7 |
17% |
61% |
Median |
8 |
3% |
44% |
|
9 |
41% |
41% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25–30 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.75%