Opinion Poll by Kantar, 24–31 May 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
23.0% |
21.6–24.4% |
21.2–24.9% |
20.9–25.2% |
20.2–26.0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) |
0.0% |
21.9% |
20.6–23.4% |
20.2–23.8% |
19.8–24.1% |
19.2–24.9% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.7–21.4% |
18.4–21.8% |
18.0–22.2% |
17.4–22.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.3–10.0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
0.0% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.9–9.3% |
6.7–9.5% |
6.3–10.0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.3–7.0% |
5.1–7.2% |
5.0–7.5% |
4.6–7.9% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.8–5.5% |
Die PARTEI (NI) |
0.0% |
1.7% |
1.3–2.2% |
1.2–2.4% |
1.1–2.5% |
1.0–2.8% |
Freie Wähler (RE) |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2–2.1% |
1.1–2.2% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.6% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.5% |
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
3% |
98% |
|
22 |
41% |
94% |
|
23 |
49% |
53% |
Median |
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
50% |
99.5% |
Median |
20 |
6% |
50% |
|
21 |
15% |
43% |
|
22 |
27% |
28% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
31% |
95% |
|
19 |
11% |
65% |
|
20 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
47% |
48% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
65% |
99.5% |
Median |
8 |
33% |
35% |
|
9 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ID) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
40% |
96% |
|
8 |
55% |
57% |
Median |
9 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
78% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
12% |
13% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
75% |
99.4% |
Median |
4 |
18% |
24% |
|
5 |
6% |
6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
16% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
83% |
84% |
Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
98.8% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
28% |
100% |
|
1 |
71% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Familienpartei Deutschlands (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
38% |
38% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
86% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
14% |
14% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartei Deutschland (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
97% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) |
2 |
25 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
23–29 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) |
1 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) |
2 |
9 |
0% |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–10 |
8–11 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ID) |
1 |
8 |
0% |
7–8 |
7–8 |
6–8 |
6–9 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
51% |
98.9% |
Median |
26 |
7% |
48% |
|
27 |
5% |
41% |
|
28 |
34% |
36% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
31% |
95% |
|
19 |
11% |
65% |
|
20 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
21 |
47% |
48% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
14% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
53% |
86% |
Median |
10 |
31% |
33% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland (ID)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
40% |
96% |
|
8 |
55% |
57% |
Median |
9 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–31 May 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1428
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.89%